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Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments (Praeger Security International)

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Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.

Author(s): Wayne Michael Hall, Gary Citrenbaum
Year: 2009

Language: English
Pages: 440

Contents......Page 6
Foreword......Page 8
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Introduction......Page 18
Part I: The Continuous War of Wits......Page 24
1. The Operational Environment......Page 26
2. The Problem......Page 34
3. Solutions......Page 46
4. Setting the Stage for Advanced Analysis......Page 65
Part II: Advanced Analysis—In Detail......Page 92
5. Decomposition......Page 94
6. Critical Thinking......Page 110
7. Link Analysis......Page 138
8. Pattern Analysis......Page 156
9. Trend Analysis......Page 172
10. Anticipatory Analysis......Page 184
11. Technical Analysis......Page 203
12. Tendency Analysis......Page 222
13. Anomaly Analysis......Page 235
14. Cultural Analysis......Page 252
15. Semiotics Analysis......Page 272
16. Aggregation Analysis......Page 294
17. Recomposition......Page 316
18. Synthesis......Page 331
19. Technology for Advanced Analysis......Page 349
Part III: System of Thought......Page 398
20. On a System of Thought......Page 400
21. Closing Thoughts......Page 423
Notes......Page 432
Select Bibliography......Page 444
A......Page 448
C......Page 450
D......Page 453
H......Page 454
M......Page 455
T......Page 456
W......Page 457