How could producing 25 percent of U.S. electricity and motor-vehicle transportation fuels from renewables by the year 2025 affect U.S. consumer energy expenditures and CO2 emissions? This report finds that reaching 25 percent renewables with limited impact on expenditures requires significant progress in renewable-energy technologies and biomass production. Without substantial innovation in these areas, expenditures could increase considerably.
Author(s): Michael Toman
Edition: 2
Year: 2008
Language: English
Pages: 114
Preface......Page 4
Contents......Page 6
Figures......Page 8
Tables......Page 10
Summary......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 16
Abbreviations......Page 18
Background......Page 20
Approach......Page 21
Organization of This Report......Page 23
Overview of the Electricity and Fuel Market Models......Page 24
Step 3: Substitute Renewable Fuels for Fossil Fuel......Page 25
Motor Transportation–Fuel Model......Page 26
Electricity Model......Page 31
Biomass Feedstock Supply......Page 35
Elasticities of Energy Demands and Primary Energy Supplies......Page 36
Uncertainty Analysis......Page 38
Concluding Remarks......Page 39
CHAPTER THREE- Key Findings......Page 42
Electricity......Page 43
Fuels......Page 47
Policy Mechanisms for Implementing the Policy Requirements Have Important Effects on Consumer Behavior and Expenditures......Page 51
Meeting 25 Percent Requirements with Relatively Low Expenditure Impacts Requires Significant Progress in Renewable Technologies......Page 52
“Only Moderate Wind Progress, Higher-Cost Biomass, Somewhat Limited Consumer Response” Characterize Many Outcomes with Higher Electricity Expenditure Change......Page 54
“Responsive Fuel Demand, Reasonably Cheap Biomass, and Significant Progress in Biofuel Technologies” Characterize a Great Many Outcomes with Low Motor-Fuel Expenditure Change......Page 56
Potential Impacts of Biomass Scarcity Can Be Especially Significant......Page 57
Policy Requirements Can Reduce CO2 Emissions Significantly, but Incremental Energy Costs per Emission Reduction Vary Widely and May Be High......Page 60
Lower-Level Renewables Requirements Reduce Expenditure Changes......Page 63
Energy Security and Energy Prices......Page 64
What Happens If Future Oil Prices Are Well Above Reference Levels?......Page 65
CHAPTER FOUR- Concluding Remarks......Page 68
References......Page 70
