Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate

Foreword
Tempests in a Greenhouse: Assessing Coastal Risk in a Changing Climate
Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Contributors
Chapter 1: Hurricane Risk Management Strategies for Insurers in a Changing Climate
1.1 Catastrophe Models: A Key Tool for Linking Climate Change to Risk
1.2 Three Recommendations for Risk Modelers
1.2.1 Recommendation 1 - Exposure: Explore Sensitivity of Climate-Driven Losses to Inputs from the Built Environment
1.2.1.1 Modeling Water Risk in the Built Environment
1.2.1.2 Spatial Distribution of Hazard vs. Built Environment
1.2.1.3 Critical Thresholds
1.2.1.4 Exposure Research Opportunities
1.2.2 Recommendation 2 - Hazard: Quantify Scientific Confidence and Impact by Subperil
1.2.2.1 Water Subperils
Storm Surge
Rainfall-Induced Flooding
Compound Flood
1.2.2.2 Wind Subperil
Wind Frequency
Wind Intensity
Wind Risk Management Strategies
1.2.2.3 Hazard Research Opportunities
1.2.3 Recommendation 3 - Translating Climate Data for Decision-Makers
1.2.3.1 Time Horizon
1.2.3.2 Risk Metrics
1.2.3.3 Translating Impacts Research Opportunities
1.3 Conclusion
Bibliography
Chapter 2: Characteristics of Risk
2.1 Introduction and Motivation
2.1.1 Accepted Risk and Risk Dialogue
2.2 Risk - An Introduction
2.2.1 Return Periods
2.2.2 Loss Frequency Curve
2.3 Characteristics of Risk
2.3.1 Shape of the Loss Frequency Curve
2.3.2 Probability of First Loss
2.3.3 Surface Underneath Loss Frequency Curve: Expected Annual Loss
2.3.4 Consequences at Reference Return Periods
2.3.5 Relationship Between Risk Characteristics
2.4 Uncertainties
2.5 Future Changes
2.6 Conclusions
References
Chapter 3: The Response of Hurricane Inland Penetration to the Nearshore Translation Speed
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Materials and Methods
3.2.1 Data
3.2.2 Inland Wind Decay
3.2.3 Near Shore Translation Speed
3.3 Effect of Translation Speed on Inland Wind Decay
3.4 Long-Term Climate Variability
3.5 Spatial Distribution
3.6 Conclusion
References
Chapter 4: Estimating North Atlantic Hurricane Landfall Counts and Intensities in a Non-stationary Climate
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data
4.2.1 Track Data and the Spatial Predictor
4.2.2 Climate Data and Temporal Predictors
4.3 Methodology
4.3.1 Poisson-GPD Model
4.3.2 P-splines
4.3.3 Bayesian Model and Implementation
4.3.4 Model Selection
4.4 Results
4.4.1 Model Selection and Model Averaging
4.4.2 Poisson-GPD Results with Predictors
4.4.3 Overall Results and Dominant Themes
4.5 Discussion and Conclusion
References
Chapter 5: Analysis of the Future Change in Frequency of Tropical Cyclone-Related Impacts Due to Compound Extreme Events
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Method
5.3 Results
5.4 Discussion and Conclusions
References
Chapter 6: Current and Future Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk in the Small Island Developing States
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Small Island Developing States
6.3 Methods
6.3.1 Hazard
6.3.1.1 Baseline Climate Conditions
6.3.1.2 Future Climate Conditions
6.3.2 Exposure
6.3.2.1 OpenStreetMap
6.3.2.2 LitPop
6.3.3 Vulnerability
6.3.4 Risk
6.4 Results and Discussion
6.4.1 Future Trends in Tropical Cyclone Hazard
6.4.2 Future Trends in Exposure
6.4.3 Future Trends in Damage
6.4.4 Future Trends in Risk
6.4.5 Limitations and Directions for Future Research
6.5 Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 7: Development of a Simple, Open-Source Hurricane Wind Risk Model for Bermuda with a Sensitivity Test on Decadal Varia...
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Methodology
7.2.1 Data
7.2.1.1 Best-Track Dataset (Observations)
7.2.2 Exposure
7.2.2.1 Annual Rental Value Data
7.2.3 Bermuda´s Historical Record of Hurricanes
7.2.4 Generating New Datasets
7.2.5 Incorporating Decadal Variability
7.3 Results
7.4 Limitations and Future Work
7.5 Discussion
References
Chapter 8: Climate Change Impacts to Hurricane-Induced Wind and Storm Surge Losses for Three Major Metropolitan Regions in the...
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Methodology
8.2.1 Accounting for Climate Change Impacts to Wind and Storm Surge
8.2.2 Accounting for Changes in Storm Activity
8.2.3 Accounting for Sea Level Rise Impacts to Storm Surge
8.2.4 Regional Sea Level Rise Projections
8.3 Results
8.3.1 Regional Distribution of Landfall Activity
8.3.2 National Loss Results
8.3.3 County Level Loss Changes
8.3.4 Detailed Loss Analyses for Selected Urban Locations
8.3.5 Galveston-Houston Return Period Wind and Storm Surge Results
8.3.6 Miami Return Period Wind and Storm Surge Results
8.3.7 New York City Return Period Wind and Storm Surge Results
8.4 Discussion and Future Work
References
Chapter 9: Downward Counterfactual Analysis in Insurance Tropical Cyclone Models: A Miami Case Study
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Catastrophe Modelling
9.3 Counterfactual Disaster Risk Analysis
9.4 Matthew, Irma, and Dorian
9.4.1 Matthew
9.4.2 Irma
9.4.3 Dorian
9.5 Methodology
9.5.1 Step 1: Identify Past Events
9.5.2 Step 2: Define Disaster phase space parameters
9.5.3 Step 3: Define End-of-Search Criteria
9.5.4 Step 4: Search the Disaster Phase Space
9.5.5 Step 5: Compare to the Historic Consequence
9.5.6 Step 6: Criteria to Continue or End Counterfactual Search
9.6 Results
9.6.1 Individual Scenarios
9.6.2 Combined Scenarios
9.6.3 Climate Change
9.7 Discussion
9.7.1 Risk Awareness
9.7.2 Operationalisation
9.7.3 Decision-Making
9.7.4 Caveats and Further Research
9.8 Conclusions
9.9 Competing Interests
References
Chapter 10: Identifying Limitations when Deriving Probabilistic Views of North Atlantic Hurricane Hazard from Counterfactual E...
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Potential Real-World Applications
10.3 Methods & Data
10.3.1 Data Selection
10.3.2 Tracking and Storm Matching Part 1: Reanalysis to Observations
10.3.3 Tracking and Storm Matching Part 2: Reforecast to Matched Reanalysis
10.3.4 Tracking and Storm Matching Part 3: Reforecast Tracks to Observational Tracks
10.3.5 Creation of Extended Landmasses for Track Selection into Counterfactual Histories
10.3.6 Counterfactual History Creation
10.3.7 GEFS Based Observational History
10.3.8 Intensity Downscaling
10.4 Results
10.4.1 GEFS vs IBTrACS Observational History Differences
10.4.2 Extended Landmass Histories: US NAHU Landfalls, All Categories
10.4.3 City Specific Investigation
10.4.4 Gate-Rate Maps
10.5 Discussion
10.6 Suggestions for Future Research
References
Chapter 11: Estimating Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability: A Review of Different Open-Source Approaches
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Structural Vulnerability Approaches
11.3 Economic Vulnerability Approaches
11.3.1 Functional Forms for Vulnerability
11.3.2 Constraining Damage Function Parameters
11.3.2.1 The Debate Over λ
11.3.2.2 Other Damage Function Parameters
11.4 Multi-hazard Approaches
11.5 Social Vulnerability Approaches
11.6 Discussion and Conclusions
11.7 Directions for Future Work
References
Chapter 12: Assessing the Drivers of Intrinsically Complex Hurricane Insurance Purchases: Lessons Learned from Survey Data in ...
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Decision Trees and Insurance Purchase Types
12.2.1 Flood Insurance Decision Tree
12.2.2 Windstorm Coverage Decision Tree
12.3 Survey Instrument and Field Implementation Summary
12.3.1 Real-Time, Repeated Surveys
12.3.2 Sampling and Variable Coding
12.4 Measures and Method
12.4.1 Measures of Insurance Purchase Types
12.4.2 Other Survey Variables
12.4.3 Regression Methods
12.5 Empirical Results
12.5.1 Results of Flood Insurance
12.5.1.1 Survey 4 Results
12.5.1.2 Survey 5 Results
12.5.2 Results of Wind Coverage
12.5.2.1 Survey 4 Results
12.5.2.2 Survey 5 Results
12.6 Discussion and Conclusion
Bibliography
Chapter 13: Exploring the Role of Social Networks in Hurricane Preparedness Planning: A Study of Public Housing Residents
13.1 Introduction
13.1.1 Factors of Social Vulnerability
13.1.2 Social Vulnerability and Public Housing
13.2 Methods
13.2.1 Study Sites
13.2.2 Sample
13.2.3 Instrument
13.3 Results
13.3.1 Hurricane Evacuation Planning
13.3.2 Integration and Mobilization of Social Connections
13.3.3 Gender, Race and Social Connections
13.3.4 Individuals with Disabilities and Social Connections
13.4 Discussion
13.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 14: Geohome: Resilient Housing for Climate Hazard Mitigation
14.1 Introduction
14.1.1 Project Objectives
14.2 Architectural Responses to Hurricane Risk
14.3 Learning from Nature
14.4 Nature´s Principles of Resilient Design
14.5 Theoretical Framework
14.6 Project Research Methods
14.6.1 Project Timeline
14.7 Project Outcomes and Future Directions
References