This book attempts to redirect the field of voting behavior research by proposing a paradigm-shifting framework for studying voter decision making. An innovative experimental methodology is presented for getting 'inside the heads' of citizens as they confront the overwhelming rush of information from modern presidential election campaigns. Four broad theoretically-defined types of decision strategies that voters employ to help decide which candidate to support are described and operationally-defined. Individual and campaign-related factors that lead voters to adopt one or another of these strategies are examined. Most importantly, this research proposes a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - that is, in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.
Author(s): Richard R. Lau, David P. Redlawsk
Series: Cambridge Studies in Public Opinion and Political Psychology
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Year: 2006
Language: English
Pages: 366
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
List of Tables and Figures......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 17
how voters decide: Information Processing during Election Campaigns......Page 21
Part I Theory and Methods......Page 23
1 Introduction......Page 25
MODEL 1: RATIONAL CHOICE......Page 28
MODEL 2: EARLY SOCIALIZATION AND COGNITIVE CONSISTENCY......Page 31
MODEL 3: FAST AND FRUGAL DECISION MAKING......Page 34
MODEL 4: BOUNDED RATIONALITY AND INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING......Page 35
Voting Correctly......Page 37
What We Can Add to the Understanding of the Vote Decision......Page 38
Overview of the Remainder of the Book......Page 40
2 A New Theory of Voter Decision Making......Page 43
HUMAN COGNITION AND ITS LIMITS......Page 45
Simplifying Evaluations......Page 47
Simplifying Choice......Page 49
DECISION STRATEGIES......Page 52
The Content of Information Search......Page 54
The Process of Information Search......Page 55
Matching Information Search to Decision Strategy......Page 57
Political Sophistication or Expertise......Page 59
Campaign Factors......Page 60
The Perceived "Nature" of the Decision Task......Page 61
Memory......Page 62
Candidate Evaluation and the Vote Choice......Page 63
Distinguishing Evaluation and Choice......Page 64
CONSEQUENCES OF DECISION STRATEGIES: THE "SO WHAT?" QUESTION......Page 65
3 Studying Voting as a Process......Page 69
PROCESS-TRACING METHODOLOGIES FOR STUDYING DECISION MAKING......Page 71
Process Tracing and the Study of Voting Behavior......Page 73
Shortcomings of the Standard Methodology for Studying Election Campaigns......Page 74
A DYNAMIC PROCESS-TRACING METHODOLOGY......Page 76
The Campaign Simulation......Page 77
WHY CONDUCT EXPERIMENTS?......Page 81
Experimental Manipulations......Page 83
INTERNAL VERSUS EXTERNAL VALIDITY......Page 84
External Validity of the Dynamic Information Board......Page 85
Subjects......Page 87
Evidence of the Generalizability of Our Experimental Data......Page 88
CONCLUSION......Page 93
4 What Is Correct Voting?......Page 94
But What Is a "Correct" Voting Decision?......Page 96
Determining "Correct" Vote Choices in Our Mock Election Studies......Page 98
An Alternative "Normative-Naive" Measure of Correct Voting......Page 99
Vote Choice......Page 100
Predicting Correct Voting......Page 101
Further Validation of the Normative--Naive Candidate Preference Measure......Page 103
An Application to American Presidential Elections......Page 105
IMPLICATIONS......Page 110
Part II Information Processing......Page 113
5 What Voters Do – A First Cut......Page 115
Primary Campaign......Page 116
General Election Campaign......Page 121
WHAT KINDS OF INFORMATION DID VOTERS GATHER? THE CONTENT OF SEARCH......Page 124
MEMORY......Page 126
Depth of Search......Page 130
Comparability of Search Across Candidates......Page 132
Sequence of Search......Page 134
Operationalizing Decision Strategies......Page 135
SUMMARY......Page 139
6 Individual Differences in Information Processing......Page 141
POLITICAL SOPHISTICATION......Page 142
Control Variables......Page 144
Content of Information Search......Page 146
Information Search......Page 148
Decision Strategies......Page 151
MEMORY......Page 154
SUMMARY......Page 155
7 Campaign Effects on Information Processing......Page 157
Number of Candidates Running in an Election......Page 158
Ideological Distinctiveness of Candidates in an Election......Page 160
Fit with Partisan Stereotypes......Page 162
Is the Candidate Supported in the Primary Running in the General Election?......Page 165
Campaign Resources......Page 166
Timing of Political Advertising......Page 169
Conclusion......Page 170
a reconsideration of what we have learned so far......Page 171
Part III. Politics......Page 177
8 Evaluating Candidates......Page 179
ON-LINE VERSUS MEMORY-BASED EVALUATION......Page 180
EVALUATION VERSUS CHOICE......Page 182
IS CANDIDATE EVALUATION PURELY ON-LINE?......Page 184
Building an On-line Evaluation Counter......Page 186
Memory......Page 187
Assessing Global Candidate Evaluation......Page 188
Evaluating Primary Election Candidates......Page 191
Evaluating General Election Candidates......Page 192
DECISION STRATEGIES AND GLOBAL EVALUATION......Page 194
IS EVALUATION THE SAME AS THE VOTE?......Page 197
PREDICTING DEFECTION FROM ON-LINE EVALUATION......Page 200
WHY MEMORY MATTERS......Page 203
CONCLUSION......Page 204
WHO WON?......Page 206
VOTE CHOICE IN THE PRIMARY ELECTION......Page 207
VOTE CHOICE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION......Page 215
PREDICTING PARTISAN DEFECTION......Page 217
CONCLUSION......Page 221
HOW OFTEN DO VOTERS GET IT RIGHT?......Page 224
BASELINE MODEL......Page 227
A SLIGHT ASIDE: CORRECT VOTING IN RECENT U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS......Page 231
INFORMATION SEARCH AND DECISION STRATEGIES......Page 234
PRESSING A BIT HARDER FOR RATIONAL DECISION MAKING......Page 242
MEMORY......Page 244
CONCLUSION......Page 245
11 Political Heuristics......Page 251
OPERATIONALIZING HEURISTIC USE......Page 253
DO ALL VOTERS UTILIZE POLITICAL HEURISTICS?......Page 257
Pressing a Little More: Is "Information Acquisition" the Same Thing as “Heuristic Use”?......Page 260
Is Political Sophistication Related to Heuristic Use?......Page 262
When Are Heuristics Employed? Situational Factors and Heuristic Use......Page 264
Decision Strategies and Use of Political Heuristics......Page 268
Effect of Political Heuristics on Correct Voting......Page 271
CONCLUSION......Page 274
Part IV Conclusion......Page 275
12 A Look Back and a Look Forward......Page 277
WHAT VOTERS DO......Page 279
CORRECT VOTING......Page 281
DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE WORK......Page 283
Model 1: Rational Choice......Page 287
Model 3: Fast and Frugal Decision Making (Take the Few Best Rule)......Page 292
Model 4: ``Intuitive" Semiautomated Heuristic-Based Decision Making......Page 294
The Special Case of Model 2: Socialized Attitudes and Cognitive Consistency......Page 296
SUMMARY......Page 299
Appendix B. How the Dynamic Information Board Works......Page 301
THE SPECIAL PROBLEM OF PARTY, POLLS, AND ENDORSEMENTS......Page 305
SUBJECTS......Page 309
EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE......Page 312
THE COMPETING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES......Page 317
Appendix D. Detailed Decision Scripts......Page 321
Appendix E. Calculating the On-line Evaluation Counter......Page 329
References......Page 335
Index......Page 357
