Fully updated and carefully revised, this new 2nd edition of History by Numbers still stands alone as the only textbook on quantitative methods suitable for students of history. Even the numerically challenged will find inspiration.
Taking a problem-solving approach and using authentic historical data, it describes each method in turn, including its origin, purpose, usefulness and associated pitfalls. The problems are developed gradually and with narrative skill, allowing readers to experience the moment of discovery for each of the interpretative outcomes.
Quantitative methods are essential for the modern historian, and this lively and accessible text will prove an invaluable guide for anyone entering the discipline.
Author(s): Pat Hudson, Mina Ishizu
Edition: 2
Publisher: Bloomsbury Academic
Year: 2016
Language: English
Pages: 360
City: London
Cover page
Halftitle page
Title page
Copyright page
CONTENTS
FIGURES
TABLES
PREFACE
CHAPTER 1 THE PROSPECTS AND PITFALLS OF HISTORY BY NUMBERS
The growth of quantitative history
The computer revolution
From the elite to the masses
Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics
Time series and causal analysis
Sampling
Mathematical modelling
Quantification as a common language
Reliability of data
Statistical categories and comparability of data
Choice of technique, use and misuse
Analysis of results
Pitfalls of modelling
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 2 THE ORIGINS AND NATURE OF QUANTITATIVE THINKING
Origins of the statistical movement in Britain
The meaning of statistics
Data display and collection
The Victorian statistical movement
Twentieth-century developments
Statistical theory
Positivism
Objectivity and prejudice
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 3 ARRANGING, REARRANGING AND DISPLAYING DATA
Types of data
Some definitions involved in regrouping data
The presentation of tables and figures
Initial questions about the data
Grouping data in a frequency distribution
Bar charts
Histograms
Pie charts and pyramid charts
Graphs: time series
Other graphs using independent and causal variables
Word clouds and similar fi gures in textual analysis
Cartograms
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 4 SUMMARIZING DATA: AVERAGES AND DISTRIBUTIONS
The mean
The median
The mode
The geometric mean
Choice of average
Dispersion around the mean: standard deviation and variance
Dispersion around the mean: the coeffi cient of variation
Rank order dispersal measures
More examples of analysis of distributions from history
Skewed distributions
Distributions with more than one mode
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 5 TIME SERIES AND INDICES
Index numbers (indices)
The formation of indices
Composite indices
Construction of composite indices: some examples
Real indices
Time series: influences
Measures of trend: growth rates
Calculation of the trend line
Cyclical fluctuations and moving averages
Irregular fluctuations
Vital statistics or vital variables
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 6 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN VARIABLES
The null hypothesis
The contingency coeffi cient ‘C’
The scatter diagram
Correlation coefficient (R)
How strong is the relationship?
The form of the relationship
Lagged results
Spearman’s rank correlation coeffi cient
The regression line
The coefficient of determination
Examples of correlation and regression analysis in history
Multiple regression models
Dealing with autocorrelation and multicollinearity
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 7 SAMPLING AND SIGNIFICANCE TESTING
The purpose and procedures of sampling
Independent random sample
Systematic and stratified samples
Other sorts of samples
Sampling error
The normal distribution
The distribution of sample means
Estimation of the population mean and standard deviation from a sample
Samples and populations: some examples
Difference-of-means test
The significance of sample results
The significance of correlation and regression results
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 8 ECONOMIC HISTORY AND ECONOMETRIC HISTORY
Some definitions
The history of econometric history
Econometric history: first wave examples
Neoclassical model-building
Econometric tools and econometric history today
Comparative economic growth and new time series research
The models, the evidence, the reality
Conclusion
Further reading
CHAPTER 9 HISTORICAL RESEARCH, COMPUTING AND THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
Useful software types
The impact of advances in ICT on historical research and writing
Research projects and ICT
Th ings to look out for when embarking upon a computer-aided piece of historical research (whether quantitative or not)
Conclusion
Further reading
GLOSSARY
NOTES
INDEX
