Handbook of Systems Engineering and Risk Management in Control Systems, Communication, Space Technology, Missile, Security and Defense Operations

Cover
Half Title
Title
Copyright
Dedication
Brief Contents
Detailed Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Author
1 The Complexity of Threats against National Security
Reference
2 Systems Engineering and Weapon Systems Acquisition Strategy of the U.S. Department of Defense and National Security
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 System Engineering Definition
2.1.1.1 Affordability
2.1.1.2 Systems Engineering Processes
2.1.2 Systems Engineering Policy and Guidance
2.1.3 Systems Engineering Plan
2.1.4 System-Level Considerations
2.1.4.1 Department of Defense Application of Systems Engineering to System of Systems
2.1.4.2 Software
2.1.4.2.1 Software Integrated within the Acquisition Life Cycle
2.1.4.2.2 Factors for Managing Software-Intensive Systems
2.1.5 Engineering Resources
2.1.5.1 Roles and Responsibilities
2.1.5.2 Stakeholders
2.1.5.3 Integrated Product Teams
2.1.6 Certifications
2.1.7 Systems Engineering Role in Contracting
2.2 Stakeholder Needs and Requirements Definition Process
2.2.1 System Requirement Analysis and Definition Process
2.2.1.1 Requirements Analysis Process Objectives
2.2.1.2 Requirements Analysis Process
2.2.1.3 Defining, Deriving, and Refining Requirements
2.3 Architecture Definition Process
2.4 Design Considerations
2.4.1 Accessibility: Section 508 Compliance
2.4.2 Systems Engineering Trade-Off Analyses
2.4.3 Anti-Counterfeiting
2.4.4 Commercial-Off-the-Shelf
2.4.5 Corrosion Prevention
2.4.6 Critical Safety Item
2.4.7 Demilitarization and Disposal
2.4.8 Diminishing Manufacturing
2.4.9 Environment, Safety, and Occupational Health
2.4.9.1 ESOH System Design Requirements
2.4.9.2 ESOH in Program Documents
2.4.9.3 ESOH Activities by Phase and Risk Management
2.4.9.3.1 Hazardous Materials Management
2.4.9.3.2 Safety Release for Testing
2.4.9.3.3 Green Procurement Program
2.4.10 Human Systems Integration
2.4.10.1 Human Systems Integrations: Integration Focus
2.4.10.1.1 Integrated Production and Process Development and IPTs
2.4.11 Insensitive Munitions
2.4.12 Intelligence Life Cycle Mission Data Plan
2.4.13 Interoperability and Dependencies
2.4.14 Item Unique Identification
2.4.15 Modular Open Systems Approach
2.4.16 Operational Energy
2.4.17 Packaging Handling Storage
2.4.18 Producibility, Quality, and Manufacturing Readiness
2.4.18.1 Producibility
2.4.18.2 Quality in Design
2.4.18.3 Assessing Manufacturing Readiness and Risk
2.4.19 Reliability and Maintainability Engineering
2.4.20 Spectrum Management
2.4.21 Standardization
2.4.22 Supportability
2.4.23 Survivability, CBRN, and Susceptibility
2.4.24 System Security Engineering
2.5 Implementation Process
2.5.1 Design
2.5.2 Realization
2.6 Integration Process
2.7 Verification Process
2.7.1 Demonstration
2.7.2 Examination
2.7.3 Analysis
2.7.4 Test
2.8 Validation Process
2.9 Transition Process
2.10 Technical Planning Process
2.10.1 Activities and Products
2.10.2 Work Breakdown Structure
2.10.3 Integrated Master Plan/Integrated Master Schedule
2.11 Decision Analysis Process
2.11.1 Activities and Products
2.12 Technical Assessment Process
2.12.1 Activities and Products
2.12.2 Technical Measurement and Metrics
2.12.2.1 Activities and Products
2.12.2.2 Technical Performance Measures
2.12.3 Program Support Assessments
2.13 Requirements Management Process
2.13.1 Activities and Products
2.14 Risk Management Process
2.14.1 Issue Management
2.14.2 Opportunity Management
2.15 Configuration Management Process
2.16 Technical Data Management Process
2.17 Interface Management Process
2.18 Tools, Techniques, and Lessons Learned
2.18.1 Modeling and Simulation
2.18.2 Sustainability Analysis
2.18.3 Value Engineering
2.18.4 Lessons Learned, Best Practices, and Case Studies
2.19 Test and Evaluation
2.19.1 Development Test and Evaluation
2.19.2 Operational Test and Evaluation
2.19.3 Live Fire Test and Evaluation
2.19.4 Integrated Test and Evaluation
2.20 Life Cycle Management
2.20.1 Life Cycle Sustainment in the Defense Acquisition Management System
2.20.2 Physical Configuration Audit
2.21 System of Systems Engineering
2.22 Acquisition of Information Technology and Computing Infrastructure
2.23 The DoD Information Enterprise Architecture
2.23.1 Data and Services Deployment
2.23.2 Secured Availability
2.23.3 Shared Infrastructure Environment
2.23.4 Communication Readiness
2.23.5 NetOps Agility (NOA)
2.23.6 The Enterprise-Wide Network and Collaboration Services
2.23.7 Active Directory Optimization Reference Architecture
2.23.8 Core Data Center Reference Architecture
2.23.9 Unified Capabilities Reference Architecture
2.24 The DoD Architecture Framework
2.24.1 The DM2 Conceptual Data Model
2.24.2 DoDAF Viewpoints and Models
2.24.3 Architecture Interrogatives
2.24.4 Architecture Presentation Techniques
2.24.5 DoDAF Configuration Management
2.25 Global Information Grid
2.26 Interoperability of Information Technology and the National Security System
2.27 DoD Net-Centric Data Strategy
2.28 Information Support Plan
2.29 Information Assurance
2.30 The Clinger-Cohen Act
2.31 Space Mission Architecture, Space Policy, and Resident Space Object
2.32 Intelligence Analysis Support to Acquisition
2.32.1 Threat Intelligence Support
2.33 Implications
References
3 System of Systems Engineering
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Exploration of Systems of Systems Activities
3.2.1 Army Battle Command System
3.2.2 Air Operation Center
3.2.3 Missile Defense System
3.2.4 U.S. Coast Guard Command and Control Convergence
3.2.5 Common Aviation Command and Control System
3.2.6 Air Force Distributed Common Ground Station
3.2.7 DoD Intelligence Information System
3.2.8 Future Combat System
3.2.9 Army's Program Executive Office Ground Combat Systems
3.2.10 Military Satellite Communications
3.2.11 Naval Integrated Fire Control-Counter Air
3.2.12 National Security Agency
3.2.13 Naval Surface Warfare Center-Dahlgren Division
3.2.14 Single Integrated Air Picture
3.2.15 Space and Missile Systems Center
3.2.16 Space Radar
3.2.17 Theater Joint Tactical Networks
3.2.18 Theater Medical Information Program-Joint
3.3 Implications
3.4 Systems of Systems Engineering
References
4 Modern Predictive Analytics and Big Data Systems Engineering: Methods, Principles, Theories, and Applications
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data Mining and Predictive Analytics
4.3 Predictive Analytics Techniques
4.4 Predictive Models
4.5 Challenges of Predictive Analytics
4.6 Modeling Process
4.7 Statistical Distribution
4.7.1 Uniform Distribution
4.7.2 Laplace-Gauss Distribution
4.7.2.1 Asymptotic Series of the Normal Distribution
4.7.2.2 The Multivariate Gaussian Distribution
4.7.2.3 The Bivariate Normal Distribution
4.7.3 Lognormal Distribution
4.7.4 G (Gamma) Distribution
4.7.5 Chi-Squared .2 Distribution
4.7.6 Non-Central Chi-Squared Distribution
4.7.7 Student's t-Distribution
4.7.8 Multivariate t-Distribution
4.7.9 F-Distribution
4.7.10 Poisson Distribution
4.7.11 Binomial Distribution
4.7.12 Exponential Distribution
4.7.13 Geometric Distribution
4.7.14 Hypergeometric Distribution
4.7.15 Inverse Gaussian Distribution
4.7.16 Normal Inverse Gaussian Distribution
4.7.17 Negative Binomial Distribution
4.8 Regression
4.8.1 Linear Regression
4.8.2 Ordinary Least-Squares Regression
4.8.3 Coefficients of Linear Regression
4.8.4 Regression on Weighted Data
4.8.5 Incrementally Updating a Regression Model
4.8.6 Partitioned Regression Model
4.8.7 The Change of Regression Analysis Due to the Inclusion of One or More Variables
4.8.8 Linearly Restricted Least-Squares Regression
4.8.9 The Significance of the Correlation Coefficient
4.8.10 Partial Correlation
4.8.11 Ridge Regression
4.8.12 Principal Component Regression
4.9 Overview of Big Data
4.10 Definition of Big Data
4.10.1 Big Data Architecture and Patterns
4.10.1.1 Classifying Mission and Business Problems According to Big Data Type
4.10.1.2 Classifying Big Data Characteristics
4.10.1.3 Determining Big Data Solution
4.10.1.3.1 Incrementally Implementation of Big Data
4.10.1.4 Logical Layers
4.10.1.4.1 Big Data Sources
4.10.1.4.1.1 Apache Hadoop and Hadoop Distributed File System
4.10.1.4.1.2 MapReduce Frameworks and YARN
4.10.1.4.1.2.1 Zookeepter
4.10.1.4.1.2.2 Hive
4.10.1.4.1.2.3 Pig
4.10.1.4.1.2.4 Mahout
4.10.1.4.1.3 SQL on Hadoop
4.10.1.4.1.3.1 Cloudera Impala Solution
4.10.1.4.1.3.2 MapR
4.10.1.4.1.3.3 Hortonworks Data Platform
4.10.1.4.1.3.4 Amazon EMR Hive
4.10.1.4.1.3.5 Actian Analytics Platform
4.10.1.4.1.3.6 Apache Spark, Oozie, Phoenix, Flink, Zeppelin, Presto, Hue, and Tez
4.10.1.4.1.3.7 Facebook Presto
4.10.1.4.1.3.8 Google BigQuery
4.10.1.4.1.3.9 IBM BigInsights
4.10.1.4.1.3.10 MapR Drill
4.10.1.4.1.4 NoSQL
4.10.1.4.1.4.1 Apache HBase
4.10.1.4.1.4.2 Apache Cassandra
4.10.1.4.1.4.3 MongoDB
4.10.1.4.1.5 Search
4.10.1.4.1.5.1 Apache Solr
4.10.1.4.1.5.2 Splunk
4.10.1.4.2 Data Massaging and Store Layer
4.10.1.4.2.1 Data Acquisition
4.10.1.4.2.2 Data Digest
4.10.1.4.2.3 Distributed Data Storage
4.10.1.4.3 Data Analysis Layer
4.10.1.4.3.1 Analysis-Layer Entity Identification
4.10.1.4.3.2 Analysis Mechanism
4.10.1.4.3.3 Model Management
4.10.1.4.4 Data Consumption Layer
4.10.1.4.5 Vertical Layers
4.10.1.4.5.1 Information Integration
4.10.1.4.5.2 Big Data Governance
4.10.1.4.5.3 Quality Service Layer
4.10.1.4.5.4 Systems Management
4.10.1.5 Atomic and Composite Patterns for Big Data Solutions
4.10.1.5.1 Atomic Patterns
4.10.1.5.1.1 Data Consumption Patterns
4.10.1.5.1.1.1 Visualization Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.1.2 Ad Hoc Discovery Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.1.3 Data Warehouse Augmentation
4.10.1.5.1.1.4 Notification Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.1.5 Initiate an Automated Response Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.2 Processing Patterns
4.10.1.5.1.2.1 Historical Data Analysis Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.2.2 Advanced Analytics Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.2.3 Preprocess Raw Data Pattern
4.10.1.5.1.2.4 Ad Hoc Analysis Pattern
4.10.1.5.2 Access Patterns
4.10.1.5.2.1 Internet and Social Media Access Pattern
4.10.1.5.2.2 Device-Generated Data Patterns
4.10.1.5.2.3 Transactional, Operational, and Warehouse Data Pattern
4.10.1.5.3 Storage Patterns
4.10.1.5.4 Composite Patterns
4.10.1.5.4.1 Store and Explore Pattern
4.10.1.5.4.2 Purposeful and Predictable Analysis Composite Pattern
4.10.1.5.4.3 Actionable Assessment Pattern
4.10.1.6 Solution Pattern Application to Big Data
4.10.1.6.1 Solution Pattern: Initial Stage
4.10.1.6.2 Solution Pattern: Acquire Advanced Mission Insight
4.10.1.6.3 Solution Pattern: Take Advanced Action
4.10.2 Data Provenance
4.11 Implications
References
5 Defense Information, Communication, and Space Technology
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 Space and U.S. National Security
5.1.2 International Space Cooperation
5.1.3 National Security Space Guidelines
5.1.4 Defense Operation in Space
5.1.4.1 Outer Space
5.1.4.1.1 Understanding Single Stage-to-Orbit Vehicle
5.1.4.1.2 Multistage Rockets
5.1.4.2 Trajectory and Orbit Principles
5.1.4.2.1 Orbital Parameters
5.1.4.2.1.1 Ascending and Descending Nodes
5.1.4.2.1.2 Equinoxes
5.1.4.2.1.3 Solstices
5.1.4.2.1.4 Apogee
5.1.4.2.1.5 Perigee
5.1.4.2.1.6 Eccentricity
5.1.4.2.1.7 Semi-major axis
5.1.4.2.1.8 Right Ascension of the Ascending Node
5.1.4.2.1.9 Inclination
5.1.4.2.1.10 Argument of the Perigee
5.1.4.2.1.11 True Anomaly of the Satellite
5.1.4.2.1.12 Angles Defining the Direction of the Satellite
5.1.4.2.2 Low Earth Orbit
5.1.4.2.3 Medium Earth Orbit
5.1.4.2.4 High Earth Orbit
5.1.4.2.4.1 Constellations
5.1.4.2.5 Geosynchronous Orbit
5.1.4.2.6 Molniya Orbits
5.1.4.2.7 Semi-Synchronous Orbit
5.1.4.2.8 Super-Synchronous Orbit
5.1.4.3 Communications and Information Technology for National Security
5.1.5 Orbital Debris
5.1.5.1 The Challenge of Space Debris and Threat to National Security from Space
5.1.5.2 Sabotage on Ground Platforms
5.1.5.3 Interceptor Antisatellite Weapons
5.1.5.3.1 Space Mines
5.1.5.3.2 Space-to-Space Missiles
5.1.5.3.3 Stand-Off Weapons, High Energy Laser, Particle Beam, Radio Frequency, and Directed Energy
5.1.6 Effective Export Policies and Classification
5.2 Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Interference Detection
5.2.1 Precise Time and Time Interval
5.2.1.1 Leap Second Time
5.3 Tactical Data Link
5.3.1 Link-16
5.3.1.1 Time Slot Allocation and Reallocation
5.3.1.2 Link-16 Enhanced Throughput (LET)
5.3.1.3 Multi-TADIL Processors
5.3.1.4 Software-Defined Radios
5.4 Understanding Space Satellites
5.4.1 Communication Satellites
5.4.2 Weather Forecasting Satellites
5.4.3 Navigational Satellites
5.4.4 Earth Observation Satellites
5.5 Satellites for Defense Action
5.5.1 U.S. Military Communication Satellites
5.5.2 Russian Military Communication Satellites
5.5.3 Other Foreign Military Satellites
5.5.4 Reconnaissance Satellites
5.5.5 SIGINT Satellites
5.5.6 Early Warning Satellites
5.5.7 Military Weather Forecasting Satellites
5.6 Directed Energy for Defeating Antisatellite Weapons and Missiles
5.6.1 Directed Energy Laser Weapon Components
5.6.2 Key Design Parameters
5.6.2.1 Operational Wavelength
5.6.2.2 Beam Quality
5.6.2.3 Telescope Aperture
5.6.2.4 Transmission
5.6.2.5 Scalability and Modularity
5.6.2.6 Laser Sources
5.6.3 Gas Dynamic CO2 Laser
5.6.4 Chemical Lasers
5.6.5 Chemical Oxy-Iodine Laser
5.6.6 Solid-State Lasers
5.6.7 Fiber Lasers
5.6.8 Beam Control Technology
5.7 Implications
References
6 Fundamentals of Control Systems Engineering
6.1 Introduction
6.1.1 Control System Definition and Boundary
6.2 Basic Principles of Control Systems
6.2.1 Control Algorithms
6.2.2 Digital Control
6.2.2.1 State-Space Representation
6.2.2.2 Transfer-Operator Representation
6.2.3 Open-Loop Control
6.2.4 Feedback Control
6.2.4.1 Robustness
6.2.5 Closed-Loop Control
6.2.6 Feedforward Control
6.2.7 Multiple-Loop Control
6.2.8 Disturbance Representation
6.2.8.1 Pole-Placement Design
6.2.8.2 Linear-Quadratic Design
6.2.8.3 Minimum-Time Switching Control
6.2.8.4 Minimum-Variance Design
6.2.8.5 Model-Feedback Control
6.2.8.6 Algebraic Proportional Plus Integral Plus Derivative Design
6.2.8.7 Anti-Alias Filtering
6.2.9 Comparison and Examples of Closed-Loop and Open-Loop Control Systems
6.2.10 Adaptive Control
6.2.11 Pattern Recognition and Expert Systems and Performance-Feedback Adaptor
6.2.12 Continuous-Model Identification and Open-Loop Adaptation
6.2.13 Batch Parameter Identification: Least-Squares Method
6.2.14 Kalman Filter and Recursive Parameter Identification
6.3 Implications
References
7 Missile Systems Engineering: Design, Guidance, and Control
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Aerodynamic Design Considerations
7.2.1 Classifications of Missiles
7.2.1.1 Air-to-Air Missile
7.2.1.2 Surface-to-Air Missile
7.2.1.3 Air-to-Surface Missile
7.2.1.4 Surface-to-Surface Missile
7.2.1.5 Air-to-Subsurface Missile
7.2.2 Design and Control
7.2.2.1 Wing Control
7.2.2.2 Canard Control
7.2.2.3 Tail Control
7.2.2.4 Tailless
7.2.2.5 Body Extension
7.2.2.6 Nose-Flap Control
7.2.2.7 Dorsal
7.2.2.8 Jet Control
7.2.2.9 Monowing
7.2.2.10 Triform
7.2.2.11 Cruciform
7.3 Aerodynamic Characteristics of Airframe Components
7.3.1 Aerodynamic Characteristics of Airframe Components and Bodies of Revolution
7.3.2 Conical Forebody
7.3.3 Ogival Forebody
7.3.4 Hemispherical Forebody
7.3.5 Other Forebody Shapes
7.3.6 Mid-Section
7.3.7 Boattail
7.3.8 Base Pressure
7.3.9 Aerodynamics Characteristics of Bodies of Revolution
7.3.10 Aerodynamics of Airfoil and Wing
7.3.11 Aspect Ratio
7.3.12 Wing Planform
7.3.13 Airfoil Sections
7.3.14 Wing Area
7.3.15 Subsonic Characteristics of Airfoil
7.3.16 Aerodynamic Controls
7.3.16.1 Wing Control
7.3.16.2 Canard Control
7.3.16.3 Tail Control
7.3.16.4 Lateral Control
7.3.17 Jet Controls
7.4 Missile Performance
7.4.1 Friction Drag
7.4.2 Pressure Drag
7.4.2.1 Body
7.4.2.2 Wing
7.4.3 Induced Drag
7.4.4 Interference Drag
7.4.5 Boost-Glide Trajectory
7.4.5.1 Graphical Solution
7.4.6 Boost-Sustain Trajectory
7.4.7 Long-Range Cruise Trajectory
7.4.7.1 Maximum Speed
7.4.7.2 Rate of Climb
7.4.7.3 Time of Climb
7.4.7.4 Stall Speed
7.4.7.5 Maximum Range
7.4.8 Long-Range Ballistic Trajectory
7.4.8.1 Powered Flight
7.4.8.2 Unpowered Flight
7.4.8.3 Design Considerations
7.5 Static Longitudinal Stability and Control
7.5.1 Two-Degree-of-Freedom Analysis
7.5.2 Complete Missile Aerodynamics for a Forward Control
7.5.3 Static Stability Margin for a Forward Control
7.5.4 Load-Factor Capability for a Forward Control
7.5.5 Complete Missile Aerodynamics for Rear Control
7.5.6 Static Stability Margin for a Rear Control
7.5.7 Load-Factor Capability for Rear Control
7.6 Maneuvering Flight
7.6.1 Cruciform
7.6.2 Monowing
7.6.3 Pull-Ups
7.6.4 Relationship of Maneuverability and Static Stability Margin
7.7 Directional Stability and Control
7.7.1 Cruciform Configuration
7.7.2 Body Contribution
7.7.3 Wing Contribution
7.7.4 Tail Contribution
7.7.5 Directional Control
7.8 Lateral Stability and Control
7.8.1 Induced Roll-Cruciform
7.8.2 Lateral Control-Cruciform
7.8.3 Damping in Roll
7.9 Dynamic Stability
7.9.1 Equations of Motion
7.9.2 Longitudinal Dynamics
7.9.2.1 Two Degrees of Freedom
7.9.2.2 Three Degrees of Freedom
7.10 Aerodynamic Heating
7.11 Ground Launch
7.12 Range Safety
7.13 Shipboard and Underwater Launches
References
8 Risk Management Framework of the U.S. Department of Defense and National Security
8.1 Introduction
8.2 DoD Risk Management Framework Procedures
8.2.1 Risk Management of IS and PIT Systems and Knowledge Service
8.2.1.1 Considerations for Special System Configurations
8.2.1.1.1 Information System and Platform Information Technology Systems Implementing a Cross Domain Solution
8.2.1.1.2 ISs and PIT Systems Providing Unified Capabilities
8.2.1.1.3 Authorization
8.2.1.1.4 Stand-Alone IS and PIT System
8.2.1.1.5 DoD-Controlled IS and PIT Systems Operated by a Contractor or Other Entity on Behalf of the DoD
8.2.1.1.6 DoD Partnered Systems
8.2.1.1.7 OSD Systems
8.2.1.2 Authorization Approaches
8.2.2 Risk Management of IT Products, Services, and PIT
8.2.2.1 IT Products
8.2.2.2 IT Services
8.2.2.3 PIT
8.3 DoD RMF STEPS
8.3.1 Security Authorization Documentation
8.3.2 Step 1: Categorize System
8.3.3 Step 2: Select Security Controls
8.3.3.1 Common Control Identification
8.3.3.2 Security Control Baseline and Overlay Selection
8.3.3.3 Monitoring Strategy
8.3.3.4 Security Plan and System-Level Continuous Monitoring Strategy Review and Approval
8.3.4 Step 3: Implement Security Controls
8.3.5 Step 4: Assess Security Controls
8.3.5.1 Security Plan
8.3.6 Step 5: Authorize the System
8.3.7 Step 6: Monitor Security Controls
8.4 DoD RMF Governance
8.4.1 Tier 1 Organization
8.4.2 Tier 2 Mission/Business Process
8.4.3 Tier 3 IS and PIT Systems
8.5 Cybersecurity Reciprocity
8.6 Integrating the RMF into the Defense Acquisition Management System
References
9 Mechanics of the Mind under Uncertainty and Cognitive Illusion Involving Risk Assessment in National Security
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Dynamics of the Human Mind in National Security, Politics, and Public Perception
9.3 What Is Risk?
9.3.1 Three Fundamental Domains to Characterize Risk
9.3.1.1 Event Space Domain
9.3.1.2 Probability-Consequence Domain
9.3.1.3 Consequence-Value Domain
9.3.2 Flow Psychology in Risk Assessment for Homeland Security and Defense Operations
9.3.2.1 Characteristics of Creative Flow in Performing Risk Assessment
9.4 Modern Elements of Risk Assessment
9.4.1 First Element of Risk Assessment: Risk Identification
9.4.2 Second Element of Risk Assessment: Risk Estimation
9.4.3 Third Element of Risk Assessment: Risk Evaluation
9.4.4 Event Data
9.5 Risk Estimation and Risk Factors
9.5.1 Risk Rate Evaluation for Societal Risk
9.5.2 Life Expectancy Models
9.6 Fault Tree Analysis
9.6.1 Fault Tree Construction
9.6.2 Dependence
9.7 Hazard Determination
9.7.1 Safety Audits and Process Safety Management
9.7.2 Management System Audits
9.7.3 Understanding Physical and Chemical Properties
9.7.4 Impurities
9.8 Hazard Analysis
9.8.1 Fatal Accident Frequency Rate
9.8.2 Pipeline Fracture in Mission-Critical Facility
9.8.3 Hazardous Area Classification
9.9 Identification of Hazards Related to Terrorism and Disaster
9.10 Guidance for Conducting Risk Assessments of U.S. Federal Information Systems and Organizations
9.10.1 Key Risk Concepts
9.10.2 Risk Models
9.10.2.1 Threats
9.10.2.2 Vulnerabilities and Predisposing Conditions
9.10.2.3 Likelihood
9.10.2.4 Impact
9.10.2.5 Aggregation
9.11 Standard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
9.11.1 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Risk Analysis and Management
9.11.1.1 Risk Matrices
9.11.1.2 FMECAs, FMEAs, and Fault Trees
9.11.1.3 NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment
9.11.2 Standard Homeland Security Risk Assessment and RAMCAP Plus Processes
9.11.2.1 Fatalities and Serious Injuries
9.11.2.2 Financial and Economic Impacts
9.11.2.3 Vulnerability Analysis
9.11.2.4 Threat Assessment
9.11.2.5 Risk and Resilience Assessment
9.11.2.6 Risk and Resilience Management
9.11.3 Department of Defense Components and Organizations' Risk Reporting
9.11.3.1 The Risk Reporting Matrix
9.11.3.2 Security Risk Categories
9.11.4 CARVER Matrix
9.11.4.1 Criticality
9.11.4.2 Accessibility
9.11.4.3 Recuperability
9.11.4.4 Vulnerability
9.11.4.5 Effect
9.11.4.6 Recognizability
9.11.5 CARVER + Shock
9.11.6 Model-Based Vulnerability Analysis
9.11.7 Federal Emergency Management Agency HAZUS-MH
9.11.8 Development of Prospect Theory
9.11.8.1 Expected Utility Theory
9.11.8.2 Prospect Theory
9.11.9 Prospect Theory
9.11.9.1 Framing Effects
9.11.9.2 Nonlinear Preferences
9.11.9.3 Source Dependence
9.11.9.4 Risk Seeking
9.11.9.5 Loss Aversion
9.11.10 Cumulative Prospect Theory
9.12 Systematic Methodology to Dispel Cognitive Biases and Improve Judgment Involving National Security and Defense
9.12.1 Singular and Distributional Data
9.12.2 Regression and Intuitive Prediction
9.12.3 Five Corrective Processes for Prediction
9.12.3.1 Establishment of a Reference Class
9.12.3.2 Assessment of the Distribution for the Reference Class
9.12.3.3 Intuitive Estimation
9.12.3.4 Analysis of Predictability
9.12.3.5 Correction of the Intuitive Estimate
9.13 Risk Acceptability
9.13.1 Public Perception of Risk and Intuitive Judgment
9.13.1.1 Voluntary or Involuntary
9.13.1.2 Discounting Time
9.13.1.3 Identifiability of Taking a Statistical Risk
9.13.1.4 Controllability
9.13.1.5 Avoidability of Risks
9.13.1.6 Position in Hierarchy of Consequence
9.13.1.7 Ordinary or Catastrophic
9.13.1.8 Natural or Man-Originated
9.13.1.9 Magnitude of Probability of Occurrence
9.13.2 Assessment of Risk Acceptability
9.13.3 Quantitative Revealed Societal Preference Method
9.13.3.1 Risky Behavior and Risk Attitude
9.13.3.2 Establishing Risk Comparison Factors
9.13.3.3 Controllability of Risks
9.13.3.4 Perceived Degree of Control
9.13.3.5 System Control in Risk Reduction
9.13.3.5.1 Systemic Control of Risk
9.13.3.5.2 Control Factors
9.13.3.6 Controllability of New Technological Systems
9.13.4 Cost-Benefit Analysis
9.13.5 Prerequisites for Risk Acceptance of Terrorist Attacks and Disaster
9.13.5.1 Requirement for a Methodology
9.13.6 Establishing the Risk Referent
9.13.6.1 Multiple Risk Referents
9.13.6.2 Risk Proportionality Factor Derivation from Risk References
9.13.6.3 Risk Proportionality Derating Factors
9.13.6.4 Degree of Systemic Control
9.13.6.5 Conversion of a Risk Reference to a Risk Referent
9.14 Dynamics of the Mind and Nuclear Crisis Management
9.14.1 Definition of Nuclear Crisis Management
9.14.2 The Procedure of Managing Nuclear Crises
9.14.3 Challenges in Nuclear Crisis Management
9.15 Implications
References
10 Command, Control, and Communication (C3) Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Design Principles of Command, Control, and Communication Systems
10.2.1 The Command and Control
10.2.1.1 The Command and Control (C2) System
10.2.1.1.1 Perception Process and Artificial Intelligence Application
10.2.1.1.2 Theoretical/Empirical/Idealized Command Method
10.2.1.1.3 Theoretical/Empirical/Idealized Control Process
10.2.1.2 Heuristic Understanding of Basic Proposal Analysis Cycle
10.2.1.2.1 In Planning Mode
10.2.1.2.2 In Monitor Mode
10.2.1.2.3 Understanding Objectives and Effectiveness
10.2.1.3 Hierarchic Command
10.2.1.3.1 Hybrid Tasking
10.2.1.3.2 Simplified Model
10.2.1.4 Concept of Advanced Command and Control
10.2.1.5 Command Decisions
10.2.1.6 Distributed Command and Coordination
10.2.1.6.1 Distributed Command
10.2.1.6.2 Coordination
10.3 Command, Control, and Communication (C3) Effectiveness
10.3.1 Approach and Techniques
10.3.1.1 Modeling Effectiveness and Mapping of System Design Options
10.3.2 Information Flows
10.3.2.1 Analysis Steps
10.3.2.2 Generic Entity Module
10.3.2.3 Entity Hierarchy
10.3.2.4 Command Response Time
10.3.2.5 Assumptions
10.3.2.6 Validation
10.3.2.7 Action Command Staffs
10.3.2.8 Sensitivity Analysis
10.3.2.9 Information Shock Experiment
10.3.2.10 Transition Planning
10.4 Systems Design and Data Management
10.4.1 Combat System Design Process
10.4.2 Gateway
10.5 Implication of the Complexity of Command and Control and Artificial Intelligence
References
11 Special Topic: Improvised Explosive Devices and Weather Modification to Mitigate Terrorism and Disaster
11.1 Background
11.2 Existing Methods to Defeat Land Mines and IEDs
11.2.1 Weapons Technological Intelligence
11.2.2 Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Microwave Technology
11.2.3 Foot Patrols
11.2.4 Lasers to Find Land Mines and IEDs
11.2.5 Laser Drilling and Analyzing System
11.2.6 Terahertz Quantum Cascade Lasers
11.2.7 Dogs for IED Detectors
11.2.8 Radio Signal
11.2.9 Talon II Remote Controlled-Robot or Intelligent-Robots
11.3 Introduction to Intelligent Systems and Weather Modification
11.3.1 Artificial Environmental and Weather Modification
11.3.2 Cryogenics for Deactivation and Deactivation of Land Mines and Improvised Explosive Devices
11.3.2.1 Artificial Weather and Environmental Modification of Security and Defense
11.3.2.1.1 International Programs Related to Weather Modification
11.3.2.1.2 Weather Modification for Defense Applications and Regulations
11.3.2.1.3 Federal Support of Weather and Climate Modification
11.3.3 Understanding Environmental and Weather Modification
11.3.3.1 Storm Modification
11.3.3.2 Hurricane Modification
11.3.3.3 Cryogenics and Intelligent Explosive Devices
11.3.3.4 Understanding Cryogenics
11.3.3.5 Affordability and Availability
11.3.3.6 Nuclear Radiation Testing of Power Plants and Weapons Using Cryogenics
11.3.3.7 Cryogenic Technology for Homeland Security and Defense Applications
11.3.3.7.1 Cryogenics for Infrared Missiles
11.3.4 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
11.3.5 Unmanned Ground Systems
11.4 Implications
References
Index