Handbook of Cliometrics

Aims and Scope......Page 5
The Methodological Features......Page 6
The Main Achievements......Page 7
A Branch of History?......Page 8
An Auxiliary Discipline of Economics?......Page 9
A Full-Fledged Field of Economic Theory?......Page 10
The Contents......Page 11
References......Page 13
Preface to Second Edition......Page 15
Preface to First Edition......Page 17
Contents......Page 19
About the Editors......Page 24
Contributors......Page 25
Part I: History......Page 30
History of Cliometrics......Page 31
Introduction......Page 32
Cliometrics......Page 33
The Economic History Discipline......Page 35
Economic History in America......Page 39
The NBER......Page 41
Business History......Page 42
Founding of the EHA......Page 44
The New Economic History Movement......Page 47
The Shortcomings of Clio......Page 51
Clio´s Accomplishments......Page 52
Conclusion......Page 54
References......Page 55
The Contributions of Robert Fogel to Cliometrics......Page 61
Introduction: Robert Fogel as a Pioneer of Cliometrics......Page 62
Robert Fogel´s Biography and His Students......Page 63
The New Economic History: The Role of Theory and Quantification......Page 65
The Reinterpretation of American Economic History......Page 70
Economic History as the Study of Economic Growth......Page 71
Union Pacific as Premature Enterprise......Page 73
Railroads and American Economic Growth......Page 75
The Study of Industrial Expansion: Antebellum US Iron and Steel......Page 76
Time on the Cross and Without Consent or Contract......Page 77
The Fallout from the Slavery Controversy......Page 79
Demography, Anthropometrics and Technophysio Evolution......Page 80
Conclusion: Fogel, Kuznets, and the Empirical Tradition in Economics......Page 82
Selected Works by Robert William Fogel (in Order of Publication)......Page 84
Published Items......Page 85
Douglass North and Cliometrics......Page 88
Introduction......Page 89
North´s Early Career as a Neoclassical Economist and Cliometrician......Page 91
From Cliometrics to Neoclassical Theories of Institutional Change......Page 95
Expanding the Frame of Institutional Economics......Page 100
Expanding the Horizons of Economists: From Cognitive Science to Political Orders......Page 105
Do Institutions Matter? North and His Critics......Page 108
North´s Legacy......Page 110
Selected References by Douglass C. North (In Order of Publication)......Page 111
Other Selected References......Page 113
Economic History and Economic Development: New Economic History in Retrospect and Prospect......Page 115
References......Page 131
Economic History as Humanomics......Page 134
What Economic History Has Become......Page 135
What Economic History Could Be......Page 138
Conclusion......Page 142
References......Page 146
Cliometrics and the Study of Canadian Economic History......Page 148
Introduction......Page 149
Resource-Led Growth: Curse or Blessing......Page 150
Indigenous Peoples and the Fur Trade: Market Signals, Demography, and Depletion......Page 153
The Wheat Boom: Time Series Analysis and the Identification of Structural Breaks......Page 154
The Adoption of Protectionism: General Equilibrium and ``New Trade´´ Models......Page 156
Transport Costs: Intracontinental Shipping and the Subsidization of Railways......Page 160
Immigration: Self-Selection and Assimilation......Page 162
Entrepreneurial Failure: Measuring Productivity and Technological Change......Page 164
Concluding Remarks......Page 166
References......Page 167
Part II: Human Capital......Page 170
Human Capital......Page 171
What Is Human Capital?......Page 172
Why the Study of Human Capital Is Inherently Historical......Page 173
Human Capital and Economic Performance in the Long Run: Escaping Malthus......Page 175
Human Capital, Institutions, and Economic Growth......Page 178
Formal Schooling in Europe and America......Page 180
Why Invest in Education or Training?......Page 186
Role of the State in Education......Page 187
Why Education Levels Increased......Page 189
Race Between Education and Technology......Page 191
Human Capital and Education: Concluding Remarks......Page 192
Health Human Capital and Income......Page 193
Measures of Health Human Capital......Page 194
Phase I: Improvements in Nutrition......Page 196
Phase II: Public Health Interventions......Page 197
Human Capital: Summary......Page 198
References......Page 199
Labor Markets......Page 202
Definition of the Labor Force......Page 203
What Is a Labor Market?......Page 205
Documenting the American Labor Force......Page 207
Size and Composition of the American Labor Force......Page 209
The Intensive Margin......Page 211
Occupations and Skills......Page 213
Wages: The Price of Labor......Page 215
Long-Run Growth in Real Wages......Page 216
Regional Differences: The Emergence of a National Labor Market in the Nineteenth Century......Page 217
Diversity in the Labor Market: Racial Differences......Page 220
Directions for Future Research......Page 222
References......Page 223
The Human Capital Transition and the Role of Policy......Page 227
Introduction......Page 228
Long-Run Economic Development and Human Capital......Page 229
Principles of Human Capital Theory......Page 232
Apprenticeships......Page 235
The Role of Guilds......Page 236
The Decline of Apprenticeships......Page 238
The Gutenberg Revolution......Page 239
Early Private Demand for Books and Literacy......Page 242
Early Spiritual Demands for Mass Education......Page 244
The Pros and Cons of Mass Education......Page 247
Books in the Industrial Revolution......Page 248
Industrial Demands for Education......Page 249
The Incentives for the Nation-State to Provide Mass Schooling......Page 251
Government Intervention in Education......Page 252
Trends in Worldwide Human Capital Levels During the Last Two Centuries......Page 260
Human Capital and the State......Page 263
Conclusion......Page 264
References......Page 267
Education and Socioeconomic Development During the Industrialization......Page 274
Introduction......Page 275
Education and Economic Development......Page 276
The Relevance of Education for Industrialization......Page 277
Evidence from the First Phase of Industrialization......Page 278
Evidence from the Second Phase of Industrialization......Page 279
Different Levels of Education......Page 280
A Human Capital Theory of Protestant Economic History......Page 281
Education and Protestant Economic Development Over the Nineteenth Century......Page 283
Gender-Specific Developments......Page 284
The Expansion of Advanced Schools and Religious Participation......Page 285
Different Levels of Education......Page 287
The Trade-Off Between Children´s Education and Fertility......Page 288
Women´s Education and Their Fertility......Page 290
Conclusion......Page 291
References......Page 292
Gender in Economic History......Page 295
How Much Did Women Participate in the Economy?......Page 296
Why Did Women Earn Less than Men?......Page 300
Why Did Men and Women Do Different Work?......Page 305
What Determines Gender Roles?......Page 311
What Role Did Women Play in Economic Growth?......Page 314
References......Page 317
International Migration in the Atlantic Economy 1850-1940......Page 321
Introduction......Page 322
Determinants of International Migration......Page 323
Immigration Policy......Page 327
Immigrant Selection......Page 330
Immigrant Assimilation......Page 334
The Effects of Migration......Page 337
The Legacy of Historical Immigration......Page 340
Conclusion......Page 343
References......Page 344
Cliometrics and the Concept of Human Capital......Page 350
Introduction......Page 351
Forerunners......Page 352
Schultz´s Early Developments and the Opportunity of Solow´s Residual......Page 354
The Synthesis Provided by Schultz, Becker, and Mincer......Page 355
Theoretical and Methodological Objections......Page 357
Skepticism About the Measurement of Human Capital......Page 360
Section III. Human Capital and the Industrialization Process......Page 362
Human Capital and Early Industrialization: A Paradox in Economic History?......Page 363
The Paradox Under Review: Re-evaluating What Human Capital Is......Page 364
Conclusion......Page 369
References......Page 370
Age-Heaping-Based Human Capital Estimates......Page 375
Introduction......Page 376
Advantages, Potential Biases, and Heaping Patterns......Page 378
Whipple, ABCC, and Other Indexes......Page 381
Reconstructing Very Early Numeracy Differences: The Example of Inca Indios......Page 385
Religion and Numeracy......Page 386
Path Dependency of Early Numeracy and Land Inequality as Determinants of Modern Math and Science Skills?......Page 387
Numeracy Differences Between Occupational Groups in Preindustrial Times......Page 388
A Human Capital Revolution in Europe......Page 389
Numeracy Levels in Latin America......Page 390
Industrialized Countries Versus the Rest of the World?......Page 391
Numeracy Trends of Women in Some Industrialized Countries......Page 392
The Gender Gap in Latin America......Page 393
The Gender Gap in Asia......Page 395
References......Page 396
Introduction......Page 399
The Nature of Church Book Registers......Page 403
How the Registers Have Been Used......Page 407
What Is Next?......Page 415
References......Page 416
Part III: Growth......Page 419
Cliometrics of Growth......Page 420
Introduction......Page 421
Evolution of Output and Population Growth in Western Europe......Page 423
Takeoff: Post-Malthusian Phase......Page 424
Sustained Growth: Modern Growth Regime......Page 425
Main Challenges......Page 426
Traditional Theories of Economic Growth......Page 427
The Malthusian Theory......Page 428
New Home Economics......Page 429
The Endogenous Growth Theory......Page 430
The Theories of Demographic Transition......Page 431
The Building Blocks of the Theory......Page 433
Complementary Factors: The Role of Female Empowerment......Page 434
References......Page 436
Preindustrial Economic Growth, ca. 1270-1820......Page 439
Introduction......Page 440
Stylized Facts About Preindustrial Growth in Europe......Page 441
Real Wages......Page 442
Per Capita GDP......Page 443
The Black Death......Page 446
Explanations for the ``Little Divergence´´......Page 449
Conclusion......Page 451
References......Page 452
The Industrial Revolution: A Cliometric Perspective......Page 455
Introduction......Page 456
The Problem of the Netherlands......Page 465
Property in Knowledge......Page 471
Ideas and the Industrial Revolution......Page 477
How Sudden was the Industrial Revolution? Revolution or Evolution?......Page 479
Changes in People......Page 482
Conclusion......Page 489
References......Page 490
The Antebellum US Economy......Page 494
Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 1790-1860......Page 495
Napoleonic Wars, Embargo, and the War of 1812......Page 498
Turnpikes......Page 500
Canals......Page 501
Steamboats on Western Rivers......Page 502
Railroads......Page 503
Productivity Growth in Agriculture......Page 504
Biological Sources of Productivity Growth......Page 506
Manufacturing and American Technology......Page 507
Economic Growth in Slave South and Free North......Page 510
References......Page 513
Economic-Demographic Interactions in the European Long Run Growth......Page 517
Introduction......Page 518
Data......Page 519
Population, Natural Increase, and the Economy......Page 522
Demographic Transition and Economic Growth......Page 528
Migration and the Economy......Page 531
Identification and Estimation......Page 533
Time Series Analyses......Page 535
Conclusion......Page 537
References......Page 538
The Golden Age of European Economic Growth......Page 542
Introduction......Page 543
Growth Performance......Page 544
The Janossy Hypothesis......Page 548
Macroeconomic Stability......Page 551
Structural Change......Page 552
The Marshall Plan and the European Economic Community......Page 554
Social Capability and Technological Congruence......Page 556
High Investment/Wage Restraint Cooperative equilibrium......Page 558
Relative Economic Decline in the UK......Page 560
Incomplete Catch-Up......Page 562
Social Capability in Different Technological Eras......Page 563
Supply-Side Policy......Page 564
The Celtic Tiger......Page 566
Conclusions......Page 568
References......Page 569
GDP and Convergence in Modern Times......Page 575
Introduction......Page 576
GDP: Concept, Limits, and Success......Page 577
Reconstructing GDP: Methods and Problems......Page 582
Convergence or Divergence? Measures and Models......Page 590
A Further Step: From National to Regional Estimates (and Models)......Page 598
Concluding Remarks......Page 601
References......Page 602
Cliometric Approaches to International Trade......Page 606
Why Look at Trade?......Page 607
Measuring the Extent of Trade and Market Integration......Page 614
What Determines Trade?......Page 621
And What About Trade Policy?......Page 628
References......Page 633
Market Integration......Page 644
Introduction......Page 645
The General Framework: What Is Market Integration and why it Is Relevant......Page 646
The First Wave: Measurement......Page 651
The Second Wave: The Causes of Integration......Page 654
The Third Wave: The Effects of Integration......Page 663
Conclusion: Taking Stock......Page 665
References......Page 667
Part IV: Institutions......Page 670
African-American Slavery and the Cliometric Revolution......Page 671
Introduction......Page 672
Conrad and Meyer......Page 673
Following Conrad and Meyer......Page 676
Self-Sufficiency of the Plantation......Page 678
The Interstate Slave Trade and Slave Breeding......Page 682
Economic Growth and Manufacturing Development of the South......Page 686
The Debate over Time on the Cross......Page 693
The Relative Efficiency of Slavery......Page 695
Economies of Scale and Gang Labor......Page 699
The Stability of the Black Family......Page 701
After the Controversy......Page 702
Group Sales and Price Discounts in the Market for Slaves......Page 706
Biological Innovation and Southern Agricultural Development......Page 708
An Assessment......Page 709
References......Page 710
Institutions......Page 717
Introduction......Page 718
What Are Institutions?......Page 719
The Effect of Institutions......Page 720
The Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth......Page 722
Criticisms of the Claims for Institutions......Page 724
Explaining Institutional Change......Page 729
New directions......Page 731
References......Page 733
Political Economy......Page 737
Introduction......Page 738
The Introduction of Political Economy into Cliometrics......Page 739
Origins of the State......Page 741
City-States and Republics......Page 742
Medieval States and Feudal Institutions......Page 743
Conflict and Consensus......Page 745
Warfare......Page 747
Patterns of Political Fragmentation and Political Centralization......Page 748
State Finances......Page 750
Religion......Page 751
State Capacity......Page 752
The Glorious Revolution......Page 753
The Political Economy of Empire......Page 756
The Consequences of the French Revolution......Page 758
Political Repression......Page 759
Revolution, Democracy, Public Goods......Page 760
Concluding Comments......Page 761
References......Page 762
Merchant Empires......Page 770
Introduction......Page 771
Trade......Page 772
Administration......Page 774
Defense......Page 776
Contrasting Empires......Page 778
A Model of Organizational Choice......Page 780
Historical Context of the Emergence of Merchant Empires......Page 782
Different Firms......Page 785
The Demise of the Companies and the Rise of Colonialism......Page 787
References......Page 790
Colonial America......Page 793
Introduction......Page 794
Income at the End of the Colonial Period......Page 795
Economic Growth......Page 796
Wealth Accumulation......Page 799
The Colonial Economy......Page 801
Regional Differentiation in the Colonial Economy......Page 802
Free and Unfree Labor in the Colonies......Page 803
Institutions and Economic Development......Page 805
Institutions in Colonial America......Page 806
The Colonial Monetary System......Page 808
Mercantilism......Page 809
Regional Variation Within the Colonies......Page 810
Economics, Politics, and Revolution......Page 811
After the Revolution: American Independence......Page 814
Conclusion......Page 815
References......Page 816
Property Rights to Frontier Land and Minerals: US Exceptionalism......Page 819
Introduction......Page 820
The Economic Institutions of Property Rights......Page 821
Social and Political Institutions of Property Rights: Pre-frontier......Page 823
Property Rights to Land on the US Frontier......Page 824
Colonial Property Rights to Land......Page 825
Federal Property Rights Policies for Land......Page 827
The Private Provision of Public Goods by Land Owners......Page 830
Property Rights to Minerals and Oil and Gas Deposits......Page 831
Property Rights on Latin American Frontiers......Page 833
Conclusion......Page 835
References......Page 836
Major Water Infrastructure and Institutions in the Development of the American West......Page 840
Introduction......Page 841
Westward Expansion......Page 843
The Development of Agriculture and Water Infrastructure in the Arid West......Page 846
The Development of the Urban West: Agriculture to Urban Growth......Page 853
The Electrification of the City and Farm......Page 855
Concluding Thoughts......Page 857
References......Page 859
Part V: Money, Banking, and Finance......Page 862
Early Capital Markets......Page 863
Concepts......Page 864
Precursor Solutions......Page 867
Joint-Stock Companies......Page 870
Secondary Stock Markets......Page 872
Monarchies......Page 873
Republics......Page 875
Joint-Stock Sovereign Debt......Page 877
References......Page 880
Origins of the U.S. Financial System......Page 883
Introduction......Page 884
Money and Banking in Colonial America......Page 885
Revolution......Page 889
Constitution and Financial Revolution......Page 892
War of 1812 and Advent of the Second Bank of the United States......Page 899
Financial Sector Development and Growth to 1836......Page 903
Conclusion......Page 905
References......Page 906
Cliometrics and Antebellum Banking......Page 908
The Antebellum Bank Balance Sheet......Page 909
Bank Notes......Page 910
The Structure of the Banking System in the Antebellum Era......Page 912
The End of the Second Bank and the Jacksonian Inflation......Page 913
Free Banking and Wildcat Banking......Page 916
The Gold Inflation of the 1850s......Page 923
Conclusion......Page 924
References......Page 925
Financial Markets and Cliometrics......Page 929
Sovereign Government Bonds......Page 930
Short-Term Commercial Finance......Page 936
Next Steps......Page 939
Concluding Remarks......Page 941
References......Page 944
Financial Systems......Page 949
What Does a Financial System Do?......Page 950
Designing Financial Systems: Functions Versus Institutions......Page 952
The Standard Paradigm of Financial System ``Types´´......Page 953
Relationship Versus Arm´s-Length Banking......Page 954
Market-Based Versus Bank-Based Financial Systems......Page 955
Connections Among the Three System Dichotomies......Page 956
Universality Versus Specialization......Page 957
Relationship Versus Arm´s-Length Banking......Page 963
Bank Versus Market Orientation......Page 966
Bank Branching Versus Unit Banking......Page 967
Financial System Evolution Over the Twentieth Century......Page 968
What Causes Financial System Differences Historically?......Page 975
Theories: Economics, Law, and Politics......Page 976
Empirical Evidence......Page 978
Literature on the Finance-Growth Nexus......Page 979
Financial System ``Types´´ and Long-Run Growth Patterns......Page 981
Conclusion......Page 982
References......Page 983
The Cliometric Study of Financial Panics and Crashes......Page 987
Survival Models and Hazard Functions......Page 988
Branch Banking and Duration Models......Page 989
Free Bank Failures and Cox Proportional Hazard Models......Page 991
Financial Panics and Archival Scraping......Page 992
Deposit Insurance, Efficiency, and DEA Analysis......Page 994
Fed Intervention and Difference-in-Difference Models......Page 995
Vector Autoregression (VAR)......Page 998
Instrumental Variables (IV)......Page 1000
Difference-in-Difference (DD)......Page 1001
Conclusion......Page 1002
References......Page 1003
Payment Systems......Page 1005
Coinage, Money Changers, and Deposit Banking......Page 1006
Bills of Exchange......Page 1009
Notes, Checks, and Clearing Houses......Page 1010
Correspondent Banking Networks in Nineteenth-Century America......Page 1014
The Twentieth Century......Page 1018
Summary......Page 1022
References......Page 1023
Interest Rates......Page 1026
Introduction......Page 1027
The Rate of Return on Investment and the Production Function......Page 1029
Theoretical and Effective Interest Rates......Page 1031
Market Interest Rates: Sources and Calculation Methods......Page 1032
Market Integration and Market Risk: Differences Between Rates in Several Areas......Page 1034
Interest Rates and Political Regimes......Page 1035
Interest Rates, Financial, and Macroeconomic Cycles......Page 1037
When Interest Rates Do Not Clear Markets......Page 1039
Conclusion......Page 1041
References......Page 1042
The Great Depression in the United States......Page 1045
Introduction......Page 1046
New Keynesian Macroeconomic Models......Page 1049
Runs on Financial Intermediaries......Page 1052
Mechanics of Monetary Policy Implementation......Page 1053
America´s Banks......Page 1054
The Federal Reserve System......Page 1055
The Gold Standard and the Fed´s Monetary Policy Strategy......Page 1057
1928: The Federal Reserve Hikes Short-Term Interest Rates......Page 1059
The Initial Downturn 1929-1930......Page 1060
Continued Decline 1930-1933......Page 1062
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy......Page 1063
Bank Failures and the Financial Crisis of 1933......Page 1066
Where Was the Lender of Last Resort?......Page 1067
Aggregate Supply in the 1929-1933 Downturn: Wage Inflation, Price Inflation, and Real Wages......Page 1069
Revival of the Banking System......Page 1072
Expected Future Inflation......Page 1073
Aggregate Supply over 1933-1937: Anomalous Inflation......Page 1074
The 1937 Downturn......Page 1075
References......Page 1076
Central Banking......Page 1081
Introduction......Page 1082
Early Studies of Central Banking......Page 1083
Antebellum US Central Banking......Page 1084
Postbellum Central Banking and Clearinghouses......Page 1085
The National Banking Era and Currency Reform......Page 1088
The National Monetary Commission and the Fed......Page 1089
Extended Histories of Central Banking and the Fed and the Rise of Cliometrics......Page 1090
The Payments System and Correspondent Banking......Page 1098
Clio and Banking Databases......Page 1100
Conclusions......Page 1101
Cross-References......Page 1102
References......Page 1103
Sovereign Debt......Page 1106
Introduction......Page 1107
How Much Debt Can States Carry?......Page 1108
The Nature of Defaults......Page 1109
Sovereign Debt in History......Page 1110
Instruments and Innovations: A Very Short Summary......Page 1111
Data Sources......Page 1113
Fiscal Sustainability......Page 1114
First-Generation Reputational Models......Page 1118
Sanction-Based Models......Page 1119
Second-Generation Reputational Models: Cheat-the-Cheater Strategies......Page 1121
Bubbles, Sentiment, and Irrationality......Page 1122
Excusable Defaults......Page 1123
Market Power and Incomplete Contracting......Page 1124
The Preeminence of Reputation......Page 1125
The Political Economy of Debt......Page 1126
References......Page 1127
Corporate Governance......Page 1130
Introduction......Page 1131
The Emergence and Relevance of Corporations......Page 1132
The Separation of Ownership and Control......Page 1137
Managerial Incentives......Page 1141
Dividends......Page 1143
Boards......Page 1145
Product Market Competition......Page 1148
Cross-References......Page 1149
References......Page 1150
Part VI: Government, Health, and Welfare......Page 1152
Anthropometrics......Page 1153
Origins......Page 1154
Methodology......Page 1156
American Slavery......Page 1159
Industrialization......Page 1161
Inequality......Page 1163
Native Americans......Page 1164
Fetal Origins Hypothesis......Page 1165
Research Frontiers......Page 1166
References......Page 1167
Wealth and Income Inequality in the Long Run of History......Page 1172
Introduction......Page 1173
How Economic Inequality Has Changed over the Centuries......Page 1174
The Medieval and Early Modern Period (From ca. 1300 to 1800)......Page 1175
The Modern Period (From ca. 1800 Until Today)......Page 1179
Glimpses into a More Remote Past: From Prehistory to the Classical Age......Page 1184
Economic Variables......Page 1186
Demography and Society......Page 1190
Institutions......Page 1193
Conclusions: What Lessons from History?......Page 1197
References......Page 1198
Agricliometrics and Agricultural Change in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries......Page 1201
Introduction......Page 1202
Increase in Production......Page 1203
Growth in Productivity......Page 1205
Technological Change......Page 1207
Market Integration and Agricultural Trade......Page 1209
Export-Led Growth......Page 1213
Agricultural Trade in the Second Wave of Globalization......Page 1214
Public Intervention in the Agricultural Sector......Page 1217
Property Rights, Agrarian Contracts, and Labor......Page 1221
Agricultural Cooperatives......Page 1223
The Privatization of the Common Lands......Page 1224
Conclusion......Page 1225
References......Page 1226
Nutrition, the Biological Standard of Living, and Cliometrics......Page 1234
Introduction: Nutrition and the Standard of Living......Page 1235
Nutrition, the Health Transition, and the Techno-Physio Evolution......Page 1237
The Biological Standard of Living and the Antebellum Puzzle......Page 1239
Nutrition, Stature, and Income......Page 1241
Nutrition, Mortality, and Morbidity......Page 1243
Nutrition and Technological Change......Page 1245
Conclusion......Page 1247
References......Page 1248
Improvements in Health and the Organization and Development of Health Care and Health Insurance Markets......Page 1251
Improvements in Public Health......Page 1252
Water Purification and Sewage Systems......Page 1253
The Eradication of Parasites......Page 1255
Improvements in Diet......Page 1256
Reforms in Medical Education and the Changing Public Perception of Hospitals......Page 1257
Occupational Licensing of Health Care Providers......Page 1258
Physicians......Page 1260
Midwives......Page 1261
Medical Costs and the Development of the Health Insurance Market......Page 1263
The Impact of War on Poverty on Health Insurance......Page 1265
Directions for Future Research......Page 1266
References......Page 1267
Cliometrics and the Great Depression......Page 1271
The Great Contraction......Page 1272
Why?......Page 1276
Measuring the Recovery......Page 1282
Monetary Policies......Page 1284
Fiscal Policy......Page 1285
Alphabet Soup......Page 1286
Conclusions......Page 1290
References......Page 1291
Cliometric Approaches to War......Page 1295
Introduction......Page 1296
Theme 1: Medieval and Early Modern Warfare......Page 1297
Theme 2: Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars......Page 1300
Theme 3: World Wars......Page 1302
Theme 4: Cold War and Beyond......Page 1308
Theme 5: Long-Run Analyses (Military Spending, Societal Structures, and Empires)......Page 1311
Conclusion......Page 1314
References......Page 1315
War and Cliometrics in an Age of Catastrophes......Page 1319
An Age of Catastrophes......Page 1320
The Economics of the Great War......Page 1321
The Chaos of Victory......Page 1326
Economic Collapse: The Great Crash......Page 1328
Russia: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republic......Page 1331
Germany: The Rise of the Nazi Party......Page 1333
Japan: The Empire of the Rising Sun......Page 1335
Italy: Too Small to Be a Major Power......Page 1337
Blitzkrieg: A New Form of War......Page 1339
Barbarossa: The German Invasion of Russia......Page 1342
Tora, Tora, Tora: The Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor......Page 1343
The End of the Beginning: Midway and Stalingrad......Page 1344
The Economics of the Second World War......Page 1347
Going ``All In´´: Gambling on War in an Age of Catastrophe......Page 1351
Conclusion......Page 1352
References......Page 1353
Part VII: Innovation, Transportation, and Travel......Page 1357
Innovation in Historical Perspective......Page 1358
Introduction......Page 1359
The Role of ``Learning-by-Using´´......Page 1360
General Purpose Technology......Page 1363
Competition Between Old and New Technologies......Page 1364
The Axiom of Indispensability......Page 1365
Linear vs Chain-Linked Models......Page 1367
References......Page 1368
The Cliometric Study of Innovations......Page 1371
Quantifying Innovations......Page 1372
Skewed Distribution......Page 1377
Explaining Innovations......Page 1379
Technological Transfer......Page 1387
Future Research......Page 1389
References......Page 1390
Arts and Culture......Page 1393
Introduction......Page 1394
Problems with Data and Culture......Page 1395
Art Markets and Their Logic......Page 1399
Geography and Art......Page 1404
Capturing and Fueling Creativity......Page 1407
Conclusion......Page 1411
References......Page 1412
Railroads......Page 1416
Early Railroads......Page 1417
Trade and Improved Transportation......Page 1418
Rail Construction and Its Geography......Page 1419
Railroad Finance and Construction......Page 1428
Government Intervention and Inducements......Page 1432
Innovation and Productivity Change in American Railroads......Page 1435
The Social Savings of Railroads......Page 1437
Concluding Remarks......Page 1440
References......Page 1441
Clio on Speed......Page 1445
Introduction......Page 1446
The Transport Revolution......Page 1447
Transport Improvements, Market Integration, and Trade......Page 1450
Transport Improvements and Income Gains......Page 1452
Transport Improvements and External Effects......Page 1457
Persistence and Long-Run Impacts of Transport......Page 1459
Institutions and Transport Development......Page 1462
Public and Private Sector Involvement......Page 1465
Cross-References......Page 1467
References......Page 1468
Travel and Tourism......Page 1471
Introduction......Page 1472
Defining and Measuring Tourism......Page 1473
Research on the Economic History of Tourism......Page 1474
The Demand for Tourism......Page 1476
Methodological Approaches......Page 1477
Elasticity Estimates......Page 1479
The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth......Page 1481
The Economic History of Seaside Resorts......Page 1484
The Shift from British to Spanish Seaside Resorts......Page 1488
Economic History of Tourism in the United States......Page 1491
Data Sets Available......Page 1495
Implications of These Data......Page 1496
Explaining the Rise of Domestic Tourism......Page 1497
History of Tourism in Hawaii......Page 1498
Conclusion......Page 1504
References......Page 1505
Part VIII: Technique and Measurement......Page 1509
Statistical Inference......Page 1510
Introduction......Page 1511
Probability and Inference in Statistics......Page 1512
K. Pearson and G. U. Yule......Page 1514
R. A. Fisher......Page 1517
J. Neyman and E. S. Pearson......Page 1519
Bayesian Probability......Page 1522
Bayesian Inference......Page 1525
Inference in Econometrics......Page 1528
The Time Dimension......Page 1529
``Clarification´´: Trygve Haavelmo......Page 1533
Alternatives......Page 1535
Inference for Cliometrics......Page 1536
The Bayesian Origins of Cliometric Inference......Page 1537
Fundamental Criticism: Rudolf Kalman......Page 1540
References......Page 1542
Recommended Reading......Page 1546
Trends, Cycles, and Structural Breaks in Cliometrics......Page 1548
Introduction......Page 1549
Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic History......Page 1550
Segmented Trend Models......Page 1552
Filters for Extracting Trends and Cycles......Page 1556
Filters and Structural Models......Page 1560
Model-Based Filters......Page 1562
Structural Trends and Cycles......Page 1563
Models with Correlated Components......Page 1565
Multivariate Extensions of Structural Models......Page 1567
Structural Breaks Across Series......Page 1569
Concluding Remarks......Page 1570
References......Page 1571
Path Dependence......Page 1574
The Meaning and Significance of Path Dependence......Page 1575
Technical Interrelatedness: The Analysis of Paul David......Page 1577
Increasing Returns: The Analysis of W. Brian Arthur......Page 1578
Other Analyses of Increasing Returns......Page 1579
The Analysis of Liebowitz and Margolis......Page 1580
Responses to the Skeptics......Page 1581
David´s Analysis......Page 1583
Liebowitz´s and Margolis´s Analysis......Page 1584
Kay´s Analysis......Page 1585
Britain´s Coal Cars......Page 1586
Videocassette Recording Systems......Page 1587
Information Technologies......Page 1588
Economic Geography......Page 1590
Institutional Change......Page 1591
Railway Track Gauge......Page 1592
Conclusion......Page 1594
References......Page 1595
Analytic Narratives......Page 1598
Introduction......Page 1599
The Five Studies of Analytic Narratives......Page 1601
Some Defining Characteristics of Analytic Narratives......Page 1605
Analytic Narratives from Military and Security Studies......Page 1609
Analytic Narratives and Deductive Explanation......Page 1616
The Role of Narration in Analytic Narratives......Page 1621
Conclusion......Page 1626
References......Page 1627
Spatial Modeling......Page 1630
Introduction......Page 1631
Actors......Page 1632
Distance......Page 1633
Spatial Randomness......Page 1634
Join-Count Statistics......Page 1635
Usage......Page 1637
Measures of Specialization......Page 1638
The Development of Spatial Modeling......Page 1639
History and First and Second Nature Geography......Page 1646
Homogeneous Versus Differentiated Goods......Page 1649
Common Versus Idiosyncratic Preferences......Page 1650
Exogenous and Endogenous Productivity Differences......Page 1651
Trade......Page 1652
Geographic Versus Economic Frictions......Page 1653
Knowledge Externalities and Diffusion......Page 1654
Migration Costs......Page 1655
Skills and Heterogeneity......Page 1656
Population and Skills......Page 1657
Equilibrium......Page 1658
Alternative Approaches......Page 1659
Cross-References......Page 1660
References......Page 1661
Historical Measures of Economic Output......Page 1664
Introduction......Page 1665
Part I: The Logic and Early History of National Income and Output Estimation......Page 1667
Part II: Historical Antecedents......Page 1672
Part III: US Estimates of Output and Income Prior to the Second Half of the Twentieth Century......Page 1674
References......Page 1684
The Census of Manufactures: An Overview......Page 1687
Introduction......Page 1688
Early Nineteenth Century COMs......Page 1690
Late Ninetieth Century COMs......Page 1691
Atack-Bateman-Weiss Sample......Page 1692
Value for Understanding the Development of the American Economy......Page 1693
Great Depression COMs......Page 1695
Vickers-Ziebarth Sample......Page 1700
Value for Understanding Business Cycles......Page 1702
Background on the Modern COM Instrument......Page 1704
Research from the Modern COM......Page 1705
Directions for Future Work......Page 1706
References......Page 1707
Decolonizing with Data......Page 1711
Introduction......Page 1712
Fortunes, Reversed and Revised......Page 1714
Deep Roots of Divergent Development......Page 1717
The Slave Trades: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies......Page 1719
Colonialism and Independence......Page 1724
Decolonizing with Data......Page 1728
References......Page 1731
Index......Page 1736