This is a practical guide to solutions for a case study of forecasting demand for services and products in international markets - and so much more than just another listing of dry theoretical methods. Leading experts present studies on improvements to methods for forecasting numbers of incoming patent filings at the European Patent Office. Studies are presented from econometric, survey and systems theory viewpoints. A recurring theme is the extent to which it is worthwhile to break down the components of the forecasting problem into classes based on geography, technical descriptions and sub-products. The contributions are reviewed by the practitioners of the existing methods, who seek to establish how to make use of the results and discover that it may not always be wise to put complete trust in established regression approaches. Along the road the reader will learn more about the patent system, debatably the best way for society to harness the forces of human invention.
Author(s): Peter Hingley, Marc Nicolas
Edition: 1
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2006
Language: English
Pages: 267
Forecasting Innovations-Methods for Predicting Numbers of Patent Filings......Page 1
0.front-matter......Page 2
1.Background......Page 8
2. A research programme for improving forecasts of patent filings......Page 16
3.From theory to time series......Page 34
4.An assessment of the comparative accuracy of time series forecasts of patent filings the benefits of disaggregation in space or time......Page 47
5.Driving forces of patent applications at the European Patent Office- a sectoral approach......Page 79
6.Time series methods to forecast patent filings......Page 101
7.International patenting at the European Patent Office-aggregate, sectoral and family filings......Page 131
8.Micro data for macro effects......Page 165
9.Improving forecasting methods at the European Patent Office......Page 196
10.back-matter......Page 251
