Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters

Front-Matte_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-D
Front Matter
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Copyright
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Contributors
Preface_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-Disas
Preface
Chapter-1---Some-relevant-issues-in-volcan_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for
Some relevant issues in volcanic hazard forecasts and management of volcanic crisis
Introduction
Volcanoes as complex dynamic systems
Volcanic alert levels at high-risk volcanoes
Forecasting eruption size at reawakening volcanoes
Forecasting the impacted areas
Best practices
Global volcanic hazards
References
Chapter-2---A-review-of-seismic-methods-_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-V
A review of seismic methods for monitoring and understanding active volcanoes
Introduction
Seismic sources and related signals
High-frequency events
Long-period events
Volcanic tremor
Very-long period events
Explosions and other volcanic signals
Seismic monitoring
Instrumentation for recording of seismicity
Distributed acoustic sensing
Rotational sensors
Signal detection
Classification
Location
Coherence-based methods
Back-propagation methods
Amplitude-based methods
Time-reverse location methods
Array methods
Methods for source studies
Remarks on moment-tensor inversion of volcanic LP and VLP sources
Subsurface investigation
Seismic tomography from earthquakes and active sources
Shallow velocity structures from surface wave dispersion
Ambient noise tomography
Temporal changes of medium properties
Conclusions and future opportunities
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-3---Volcano-geodesy--A-critical-tool-fo_2021_Forecasting-and-Plannin
Volcano geodesy: A critical tool for assessing the state of volcanoes and their potential for hazardous erupti ...
The ups and downs of volcanoes
Measuring deformation and gravity change
``Classic´´ volcano geodesy
``Modern´´ volcano geodesy
Forecasting volcanic activity with geodesy
Eruption onset
Eruption evolution
Forecasting challenges
Limitations of geodetic data
Data collection
Data interpretation
Beyond the subsurface: Novel uses of geodetic data
Surface change
Detection and characterization of volcanic plumes
Properties of magma and magmatic systems
Case studies
Agung, Indonesia: Geodetic insights into pre- and co-eruptive volcanic activity and hazards
Saba and St. Eustatius, Dutch Antilles: Preemptive geodetic response at historically dormant volcanic islands
The future of geodesy applied to volcanic hazards
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-4---Geochemical-monitoring-of-vol_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-
Geochemical monitoring of volcanoes and the mitigation of volcanic gas hazards
Introduction
Magmatic degassing and the tenet of geochemical monitoring
Measurements of fumarolic/vent emissions, volcanic plumes, soil gases, and springs
High-temperature gases from fumaroles and active vents
Low temperature, hydrothermal emissions
Stable isotopes and noble gases
Gas flux measured in volcanic plumes and clouds
Soil gas monitoring
Volcanic gas hazard and risk
Limits to knowledge and future developments
References
Chapter-5---A-review-of-the-physical-and-mecha_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning
A review of the physical and mechanical properties of volcanic rocks and magmas in the brittle and ductile regimes
Introduction
Physical properties of volcanic materials
The porosity of volcanic rocks and magmas
Permeable pathways in volcanic rocks and magmas
Ultrasonic velocity in volcanic materials
Thermo-mechanical properties of volcanic rocks
The mechanical properties of volcanic rocks under unconfined conditions
The mechanical properties of volcanic rocks under confined conditions
Thermal expansivity, thermal stressing, and thermal microcracking
Thermal-sensitivity of mineralogical assemblages: the importance of secondary mineralization and devolatilization re ...
Mechanical properties of volcanic rocks at elevated temperature
The rheology of magmas
Silicate melt rheology: Viscosity and the glass transition
Multiphase magma viscosity
Crystal plasticity in magmas
The strength of multiphase magmas
Magmatic fragmentation
Criteria for multiphase magma failure
Material rupture architecture and seismogenicity
Tribological and frictional properties of volcanic materials
Concluding remarks
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-6---Numerical-modeling-o_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-
Numerical modeling of magma ascent dynamics
Introduction
Conduit models
Case studies
Mechanical disequilibrium/outgassing
Conduit geometry
Temperature
Phreatomagmatic interaction
Conclusions
Appendix A
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-7---Understanding-volcanic-systems-and_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning
Understanding volcanic systems and their dynamics combining field and physical volcanology with petrology studies
Introduction
Reconstructing the evolution of a volcanic system
Geological mapping and stratigraphic studies
Geochronological studies
Physical characterization of eruptions
Petrology and geochemistry of erupted products
Studying single-eruption sequences
Sampling strategies for pyroclastic deposits
Componentry of pyroclastic deposits
Internal variability in the products of an effusive eruption
Petrological constraints to magma genesis and evolution
The nature and composition of the magma source
Defining physical and chemical parameters of magmatic processes
Dynamics of magmatic processes
Timescales for magma crystallization and degassing
Experimental constraints on volcano evolution and eruption dynamics
P-T conditions of magma evolution: Phase equilibrium studies
Constraints to magma degassing: Volatile solubilities
Experimental constraints to magma mixing/interaction
Constraints to the rates of magma ascent: Decompression experiments
Measuring physical properties of rocks and magmas
Discussion and conclusions
References
Chapter-8---Assessment-of-risk-assoc_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volca
Assessment of risk associated with tephra-related hazards
Introduction
Tephra dispersal, fallout and aeolian ash remobilization
Impacts associated with tephra fallout, dispersal, and aeolian ash remobilization
Hazard assessment
Exposure and vulnerability assessment
Physical vulnerability
Socio-economic vulnerability
Systemic vulnerability
Risk assessment
Risk assessment at local scale based on in-situ vulnerability analysis
Exposure-based risk assessment at regional scale
Exposure-based risk assessment at continental scale for tephra dispersal
Discussion and conclusions
Recent developments in hazard and vulnerability assessment of tephra-related phenomena
Current challenges of risk assessment
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-9---The-dynamics-of-explosive-mafic_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-fo
The dynamics of explosive mafic eruptions: New insights from multiparametric observations
Introduction
Volcano monitoring techniques: Acquisition rates, modes, and strategies
FAMoUS: A Fast, Multiparametric Setup for studying explosive volcanic activity
Key eruptive processes: Insights from multiparametric measurements
The ejection of pyroclasts at the vent: Ejection velocity and ejection pulses
Features and dynamics of eruptive supersonic jets from mafic explosive eruptions
The growth of eruption plumes from pulsatory, mafic explosive activity
Volcanic ballistics projectiles
Vent dynamics and their influence on eruption style
Towards a more quantitative definition of eruptive styles
Final considerations
Technological advancements
Volcanological perspectives
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-10---Recent-basaltic-eruptions-in-I_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-fo
Recent basaltic eruptions in Iceland and the dynamics of co-eruptive subsurface magma flow
Introduction
Volcanism in Iceland
A mathematical model for magma flow in basaltic eruptions
Eyjafjallajökull flank (Fimmvöruháls) eruption 2010
Grímsvötn 2011 eruption
Bárarbunga 2014-2015
Discussion
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-11---Volcanic-lake-dynam_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-
Volcanic lake dynamics and related hazards
Introduction
The early history of volcanic lake research
Classification of volcanic lakes
Mechanisms leading to hazardous events
From sealing to phreatic eruptions
Gas hazards and limnic gas burst revisited
Direct gas emissions
Gas beracun at hyperacidic lakes: The Kawah Ijen case
Degassing of geothermally heated caldera lakes and medium activity lakes
Nyos-type vs anti-Nyos-type vs bioactivity lakes
The sudden release of water: Floods and lahars
Impacts and risk perception
In modern times
Sociocultural views and aspects
Monitoring and mitigation strategies
Conclusive remarks
References
Chapter-12---Remote-sensing-o_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Haz
Remote sensing of volcanic impacts
Introduction
Remote sensing for volcanic impact assessment
Preevent impact assessments
Postevent impact assessments
Case study: The 2014 eruption of Kelud
Case study: The 2010 eruption of Merapi
Change detection
Time series approach to impact and recovery
Concluding remarks
Supplementary material
Acknowledgments
References
Chapter-13---A-checklist-for-crisis-o_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volc
A checklist for crisis operations within volcano observatories
Introduction
Definitions-``Volcano observatory,´´ ``volcanic crisis,´´ and ``success´´
Differences in capabilities, responsibilities, and intensities of crisis operations among observatories
Observatories that are responsible for many volcanoes and multiple eruptions per year
Observatories with few volcanoes and/or few eruptions per year
The crisis timeline
Continuous progression to eruption
Little or no time to respond
Prolonged high-levels of unrest
Augmenting monitoring networks during crises
When is an eruption imminent? When is it finished? And who makes the call?
Postcrisis
Observatory hazard communications during crises
Communicating probabilities and uncertainties
Hazard warnings and volcanic alert levels (VALs)
Incident management systems (IMS)
The role of observatory Public Information Officers (PIOs) and daily talking points
Crisis-driven research and crisis-collaboration plans
Crisis collaboration plans
Open access to monitoring data
Checklists for many workplaces, including volcano observatories
A brief history of checklists outside volcanology
Checklists for volcano observatory planning and crisis operations: General considerations
Suggested checklist: Short version
Suggested checklist: Details
Precrisis: Inward-facing
Precrisis: Outward-facing
Syn-crisis: Inward-facing
Syn-crisis: Outward-facing
Postcrisis: Inward-looking
Postcrisis: Outward-looking
Posteruption: Lingering effects, both inward- and outward-looking
Legal implications
Closing remarks
References
Chapter-14---Reducing-the-volcanic-risk-i_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-
Reducing the volcanic risk in the frame of the hazard/risk separation principle
Introduction
Quantifying uncertain scientific information: Hazard analysis
Moving from hazard to risk
Decision-making under uncertainty
The hazard/risk separation principle
The Campi Flegrei VUELCO simulation exercise
Final remarks
References
Chapter-15---Volcanic-hazards-infor_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcan
Volcanic hazards information and assessment systems
Introduction
G-EVER Asia-Pacific region earthquake and volcanic hazards mapping project
Eastern Asia Earthquake and Volcanic Hazards Information Map
Asia-Pacific Region Geological Hazards Information System
Volcanic hazards assessment support system
Outline of the volcanic hazards assessment support system
Energy cone simulation
Titan2D simulation
Tephra2 simulation
Advantage of VHASS
Conclusions
References
Further reading
Chapter-16---Raising-awareness-of-populat_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-
Raising awareness of populations living under volcanic risk--The Colombian case
Introduction
Beginnings of volcanology in Colombia, The Case Of The Nevado del Ruíz volcano (VNR)
Research and monitoring of volcanic activity in Colombia
Volcanic hazard assessment
Volcano monitoring
``ASCG´´ strategies in Colombian volcanoes
Case studies
Nevado del Ruiz volcano, 1989-2019
Nevado del Huila volcano, 2007-2009-2019
Galeras volcano, 2005-2019
Chiles--Cerro Negro volcanoes, 2013-2019
Conclusions
References
Chapter-17---Volcano-hazards-_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Haz
Volcano hazards and risks in Chile
Introduction
Active volcanoes in Chile
Volcano hazards
Exposure, vulnerability, and risk
Concluding remarks
References
Chapter-18---Volcano-emergency-pla_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcani
Volcano emergency planning at Sakurajima volcano
Volcano emergency planning in Japan
Sakurajima volcano and its eruptive history
1914 eruption
1946 eruption
Vulcanian eruption at Minami-dake crater in 1955-2005
Vulcanian eruption at Showa crater in 2006-17
Monitoring of the volcano and the volcanic alert level
Monitoring of volcanic activity
Volcanic alert level
Scenarios of future activity against which countermeasures are necessary
Volcano disaster measures
Enhancement of preparedness
Disaster emergency measures
Strategy of forecasting volcanic eruption
Procedure for setting up the disaster management system
Plan for shared information between scientific bodies and local authorities
Announcement of disaster information to the public
Evacuation plan
Variety of disaster emergency measures
Recovery
Complex disaster measures
Complex disaster characteristics
Factors inhibiting evacuation
Long-term evacuation
Housing for long-term evacuation
Collection of information pertaining to long-term evacuation
Monitoring of existing houses for residents in long-term evacuation
Massive tephra falls
Collaboration among organizations
Necessity of further development of emergency measures
References
Further reading
Index_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-Disaste
Index