Fooled by Randomness

Preface (vii)......Page 9
Contents (xxv)......Page 25
Prologue (xxxix)......Page 38
Part I. Solon's Warning: Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction (1)......Page 46
1. If You're So Rich, Why Aren't You So Smart? (5)......Page 49
2. A Bizarre Accounting Method (22)......Page 66
3. A Mathematical Meditation on History (43)......Page 87
4. Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual (70)......Page 114
5. Survival of the Least Fit—Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness? (79)......Page 123
6. Skewness and Asymmetry (97)......Page 141
7. The Problem of Induction (116)......Page 160
Part II. Monkeys on Typewriters: Survivorship and Other Biases (133)......Page 176
8. Too Many Millionaires Next Door (139)......Page 181
9. It Is Easier to Buy and Sell than Fry an Egg (149)......Page 191
10. Loser Takes All—On the Nonlinearities of Life (172)......Page 214
11. Randomness and Our Mind: We Are Probability Blind (182)......Page 224
Part III. Wax in My Ears: Living with Randomitis (219)......Page 261
12. Gamblers' Ticks and Pigeons in a Box (226)......Page 267
13. Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability and Skepticism (234)......Page 275
14. Bacchus Abandons Antony (245)......Page 286
Epilogue. Solon Told You So (250)......Page 291
Postscript. Three Afterthoughts in the Shower (253)......Page 293
Acknowledgments for the First Edition (263)......Page 303
A Trip to the Library: Notes and Reading Recommendations (278)......Page 306
Preface (269)......Page 307
Prologue (271)......Page 309
Chapter 1 (272)......Page 310
Chapter 2 (273)......Page 311
Chapter 3 (274)......Page 312
Chapter 4 (276)......Page 314
Chapter 5 (277)......Page 315
Chapter 6 (278)......Page 316
Chapter 7 (279)......Page 317
Chapter 8 (280)......Page 318
Chapter 10 (281)......Page 319
Chapter 11 (283)......Page 321
Chapter 13 (288)......Page 326
Chapter 14 (290)......Page 328
References (293)......Page 330
Index (307)......Page 344
About the Author (317)......Page 354
About the Type (318)......Page 355