Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective

Front Cover
Flood Risk Change
Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective
Copyright
Contents
Preface
1- Introduction
References
2 - Key drivers of flood risk change
Principles of flood risk analysis
Environmental changes
Environmental changes in the upstream catchment
Dams, reservoirs, and regulated lakes
Land use changes at catchment scale
Changes in the glacial and periglacial environment
Natural climate variability
Environmental changes in the floodplain
Changes in river morphology at reach scale
Climate changes
Socioeconomic changes
Coevolution of key drivers of change
References
3 - Disentangling drivers of change
Analysis and modeling framework
Simulations driven by global and regional climate models
Sensitivity analysis and scenario-neutral approaches
The storyline approach
The retromodel experiment approach
Quantifying the isolated effects of drivers of change with model experiments
The Kander river deviation of 1714 AD and its effects on hydrological change
History of the Kander river deviation
A cascade of unintended consequences
Anthropogenic interventions following the Kander river deviation
Model experiment setup for quantifying the cumulative effects of human interventions to river systems on flood risk change
The coupled hydrological-hydraulic model
Reconstruction of the historic natural river morphology
The human dimension of hydrological change
Analyzing the cumulative effects of river training measures on flood impacts
Hydrodynamic model
Flood inundation of recent flood events on a counterfactual river morphology
Defining extreme rainfall scenarios
The cumulative effects of human interventions to the river system on the hydrology of probable maximum floods
The cumulative effects of human interventions to the river system on flood impacts of probable maximum floods
Quantifying inner-basin flood risk transfer
Assessing changes to flood hazard maps due to climatic changes
Changes in sediment supply for torrential floods
Analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of fluvial erosion and riverbed aggradation
Aare river
Reuss river
Thur river
Rhine river
Ticino river
Rhone river
Inn river
Analyzing changes in flood exposure
Model experiment setup for analyzing change in flood exposure
Analyzing the effects of land use planning on flood exposure
Modeling the effects of changing vulnerability on flood risk change
Analyzing the effects of feedback and time lags on flood risk change
Feedback effects of fluvial erosion and riverbed aggradation on flood risk change
Sensitivity of discharge capacity to fluvial erosion rates
Sensitivity of erosion rates to changes in peak flow
Sensitivity of flood risk to erosion rates
Feedback effects of landscape shaping flood events on hydrological change
Feedback effects of flood events on the initiation of flood protection projects
The levee effect
The societal memory effect on house construction activities in flood-prone areas
Time lags in the implementation of flood risk management measures
Other aspects that are contributing to the complexity of flood risk management
Acknowledgments
References
4 - Rivers and floodplains as complex adaptive systems?
Characteristics of complex systems
Numerosity and diversity
Order and disorder
Nested structure, modularity, and multiple scales
Feedback
Nonlinearity
Nonequilibrium, fluctuations, episodical changes
Emergence, self-organization, self-regulation
History and memory, path dependency
Robustness
Adaptive behavior
Uncertainty
Long-term evolution of floodplains seen from a complex systems perspective
Complexity of flood risk change
Trajectories and pathways of flood risk evolution
Sensitivity to climatic changes—short-term future pathways
References
5 - Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of flood risk change
Examples of flood risk change analysis
The tool “Flood memory”
The tool “Flood damage potential”
Method
Cartography
Results
Conclusions from the complexity perspective
The tool “Flood damage simulator”
Method
Factors that determine flood risk change
Urban densification
Property-level flood protection measures
Flood protection measures
Scenarios
Results and discussions
Conclusions from the complexity perspective
The tool “Flood risk dynamics”—flood risk change at centennial scale
Method
River morphology and flood hazard
Elements at risk
Flood risk evolution
Results and discussion
Conclusions from the complexity perspective
The tool “Flood dynamics”—flood impact variability at hourly scales
Method
Rainfall scenarios
Hydrologic model
Hydraulic model
Flood impact model
Codesign of the graphical user interface
Results
Conclusions from the complexity perspective
Decision-making leads to the emergence of spatial patterns of flood risk change
Method
Results
Conclusions from the complexity perspective
Monitoring flood risk change
Modeling framework for considering complexity in the analysis of flood risk change
Development of coupled component models
Model coupler
Development of model components
Data sources
Data for modeling flood hazards
Data for modeling elements at risk
Data for modeling vulnerability
Perspectives of coupled component models in hydrology
Context for hydrology
Hydrology as a context
Feedbacks: unifying top-down and bottom-up modeling approaches
Acknowledgments
References
6 - Confronting complexity in flood risk management
A new perspective on flood risks
Lessons learnt from the Kander river deviation
Levers for controlling flood risk in the long term
Implications for flood risk research and management
References
Index
A
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
K
L
M
N
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
Z
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