Active killer attacks frequently dominate the headlines with stories of seemingly random mass killings in school, campus, and workplace settings. Nearly all of the attacks are over before the police can respond, leaving unanswered questions as to why these attacks happen and what can be done to prevent them. Fatal Grievances: Forecasting and Preventing Active Killer Threats in School, Campus, and Workplace Settings takes a proactive view of active killer threat management and resolution to prevent the attack before it occurs.
Drawing from established threat assessment, behavioral analysis, and law enforcement negotiation theory and practice, the book presents models and methods designed to forecast and prevent an active killer attack through the process of identification, assessment, and engagement. This approach begins with definitions and orientations to violence, the importance of the primacy of focusing on direct behaviors of planned lethal violence over other more indirect behaviors, understanding how to identify a fatal grievance and that only fatal grievances result in planned lethal violence, the importance of understanding the process of crisis intervention as the key to eliminating the fatal grievance and the motivation to kill, and the use of time-series predictive behavioral threat forecasting methods to prevent an active killer attack. Case studies from within the United States (US) and abroad support this unique approach to threat assessment and make the concepts and principles accessible to professionals working in the fields of education, human resources, and security.
Author(s): Gregory M. Vecchi, Mary Ann Markey, Jeffrey A. Daniels
Publisher: Routledge
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 183
City: New York
Cover
Endorsement Page
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Table of Contents
List of figures
List of tables
List of worksheets
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 Introduction and Orientation to Active Killer Threat Assessment
Scope of This Book
A Paradigm Shift from Active Shooters to Active Killers
A Change in Mindset from Being Reactive to Proactive
Assessment versus Analysis
Threat Intelligence Collection and Assessment
The Problem With “Profiling” Active Killers
The Importance of Operationalizing Definitions
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Note
Chapter 2 Active Killer Characteristics: Myths vs. Statistics
Myth 1: Active Killers Are Everywhere
Myth 2: Active Killers Are Only a Problem in the US
Myth 3: Disgruntled Students and Employees Are the Only Threat to Safety
Myth 4: The Attacker Just “Snapped”
Myth 5: Demographics Can Identify an Active Killer
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Notes
Chapter 3 Direct Behaviors of Planned Lethal Violence
Active Killer Motivations
Grievance as a Precursor of Lethal Violence
Grievance and the Crisis State
The Fatal Grievance Pathway
Planned Lethal Violence
Direct Behaviors and Stages of Planned Lethal Violence
Direct Behavioral Clusters of Planned Lethal Violence
The Planned Lethal Violence Stairway Model
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Notes
Chapter 4 Indirect Behavioral Indicators of Planned Lethal Violence and Situational Distress Factors
Indirect Behaviors
Primary Indirect Behavioral Indicators
Secondary Indirect Behavioral Indicators
Stress and Violence
Situational Distress
Situational Distress Factors
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Chapter 5 Threat Management: Identifying the Threat
The Necessity of Structure in Active Killer Threat Assessment
Forensic Investigation and Behavioral Analytical Methods
Contextual Factors
Factors of Social Desirability
The Role of Social Fabric in Threat Assessment
Detecting Behavioral Indicators of Planned Lethal Violence
Baselines and Anomalies
Establishing Baselines and Identifying Anomalies
Bias and Error Considerations in Detecting Concerning Behavior
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Note
Chapter 6 Threat Management: Assessing the Threat
The Problem with Relying on “Pre-Attack Behaviors” in Threat Assessment
Understanding the Significancy and Frequency of Anomalies
Prediction and Threat Assessment
Forecasting in Threat Assessment
Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting
Predictive Analytics and Modeling
Predictive Behavioral Threat Forecasting
Methodology
Qualitative Adjustments to Threat Confidence Levels
Completing the Threat Assessment
Bias Errors in Assessing a Threat
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Notes
Chapter 7 Threat Management: Engaging the Threat
Conflict Management vs. Conflict Resolution
Monitoring
Third-Party Intervention
Direct Interventions
Engagements Based on Threat Level
Conclusion
Chapter Takeaways
Note
Chapter 8 Limitations and Conclusions
Summary of Key Takeaways
Limitations
Conclusions
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C: Cases Analyzed
References
Index
