Mobilizing an interdisciplinary group of scholars and practitioners, this book reviews the history and consequences of NATO’s post-Cold War enlargement into Central and Eastern Europe. It offers a nuanced discussion of the merits and drawbacks of NATO enlargement across the different actors involved and compares the results of the policy against potential alternatives that were not chosen. Particular attention is given to NATO enlargement’s influence on the course of U.S. foreign policy, democracy and security in Central and Eastern Europe, NATO’s own development as a political and military institution, and relations with China and Russia (including the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War). Written for an engaged audience, the book is designed to appeal to students, researchers, and policymakers alike while offering both policy insights and avenues for future scholarship.
Author(s): James Goldgeier, Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 647
City: Cham
Acknowledgements
Contents
List of Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Evaluating NATO Enlargement: Scholarly Debates, Policy Implications, and Roads not Taken
NATO Enlargement: Review and Reprise
Framing the Debates Over Enlargement’s Legacy
International Debates
Domestic‑Level Considerations
Organizational Impact
The Role of Counterfactual Analysis and Inference
Previewing the Volume
Conclusion: Toward a Research Agenda
References
Part I Foreign Policy and Strategy Debates
2 Patterns of Continuity in NATO’s Long History
A Permanent Alliance?
The Ismay Assumptions
The Forever Tsars
The German Problem
The USA as a European Power
Growing Membership, Unchanging Mission
New Members
Non‑members
Who’s in, Who’s Out?
Why not Expand NATO’s Functions?
Stabilizing Europe
Dynamic Versus Static
Plus ca Change, Plus C’est la Même Chose
Challenging Inevitability
A Higher Cost to Expansion, Imposed by Moscow
An Increased European Defense Effort that Allowed the Americans to Go Home
A US President Willing to Take Political and Geopolitical Risks
A Different Germany
Looking Forward
References
3 NATO as a Political Alliance: Continuities and Legacies in the Enlargement Debates of the 1990s
Adaptation and Preservation
Going East
A Liaison to the East
The North Atlantic Cooperation Council
The Partnership for Peace
To Madrid
Conclusion
References
4 The NATO Enlargement Consensus and US Foreign Policy: Origins and Consequences
The United States and NATO Enlargement: A Brief History
Explaining the Trend
Enlargement as a Byproduct of Unipolarity
Expansion as Power Maximization
Expansion as Leadership via Prestige and Credibility
Enlargement as Socialization
Enlargement as Domestic Politics
Integrating the Results
Consequences of Enlargement
Prospective Advantages of Enlargement
Prospective Disadvantages
Second Order Effects
Conclusion
References
5 Myths and Realities of Putinism and NATO Expansion
References
Part II Great Power Relations
6 NATO Enlargement and US Grand Strategy: A Net Assessment
The Case for a Post‑Cold War NATO
Unhindered NATO Expansion
NATO on Russia’s Border
Russia’s Reaction
An Alternative Path?
Hazards of Continued NATO Enlargement
Avoiding Threat Inflation Regarding Russia
Transatlantic Trends
NATO and the War in Ukraine
References
7 NATO Enlargement: Evaluating Its Consequences in Russia
The Difficulty of Testing the Effects of NATO Enlargement
Organization of the Argument
Objective Military and Foreign Policy Effects of NATO Enlargement on Russia
Confounding External Systems Effects on Russia’s Relationship with the West
Russian Perceptions About NATO: Nationalist Manipulation and Domestic Politics
Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine
Conclusions
References
8 The Tragedy of US–Russian Relations: NATO Centrality and the Revisionists’ spiral
Modeling the Spiral
NATO Centrality vs. NATO Expansion
Origin of Revisionism: Russia’s Response: 1990–1993
Cooperation‑as‑Revisionist Strategy
The Road Toward Defection
The Revisionists’ Spiral as a Greedy‑Security Dilemma
Conclusion
References
9 China Views NATO: Beijing’s Concerns About Transatlantic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
Post-Cold War Relations Between China and NATO
NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: China’s Concerns About the Globalization of the US Alliance System
Edging Away from the West: China’s Global Security Initiative
Conclusion
References
Part III European Security
10 Thank Goodness for NATO Enlargement
The Arguments for and Against NATO Enlargement
Assessing NATO Enlargement
Fulfilling the Need for a Useful Hedge
NATO Enlargement Does Not Prevent Mutually Beneficial Cooperation
The Defensibility of NATO’s Northeastern Flank
Concluding Thoughts
References
11 Good for Democracy? Evidence from the 2004 NATO Expansion
Introduction
NATO’s Commitment to Democracy: How Much Does It Matter?
NATO and Democratic Development
Evaluating the Counterfactual
Measuring Democratic Institutions
Caveats and Considerations
Quantitative Analysis
Regression Analysis Results
Discussion and Conclusions
References
12 Ukraine’s Bid to Join NATO: Re-evaluating Enlargement in a New Strategic Context
A Balancing Act
The Bucharest Statement
Euromaidan and the 2014 Invasion
Drawing the Line
Enhanced Assistance for Ukraine
The Impact of NATO Assistance
NATO Enlargement: Reframing the Debate
Is NATO Enlargement to Blame for Russian Aggression?
Looking Forward
The Internal Dimension of Peace and Security
What Does NATO Owe Its Partners?
Conclusion
References
13 Every Which Way But Loose: The United States, NATO Enlargement, European Strategic Autonomy and Fragmentation
Consolidation (1989–1995): No Exit
Instability
Monopoly
Casting a Wider Net
European Reflex
Supply and Demand
Test Case
Everything at Once (1996–2000)
Closing Windows
Monopoly II
Dilution
Fragmentation (2001–2016)
Consolidation Complete
Exploiting Divisions
Burning Up the Bandwidth
The Benefits of 2022 Hindsight
References
Part IV Organizational Politics and Debates
14 Assessing the Consequences of Enlargement for the NATO Military Alliance
SHAPEing the New NATO
The Long‑Term, NATO Enlargement, and Bi‑MNC Studies (1994–1999)
Making Enlargement Work
Consequences of Enlargement
Conclusion
References
15 In Peace and War: The Military Implications of NATO Enlargement
Setting the Stage for the Enlargement Decision
Former Adversaries Press to Join NATO as Allies Debate Whether to Enlarge
Thinking Through the Military Implications of Enlargement
The NATO Enlargement Study
The Military Implications of the First Round of Enlargement
The Downward Slope
The Transition: Military Costs Begin to Outweigh Political Gains
War in Europe
Enlargement’s Military Legacy and Further NATO Enlargement Debates
Conclusion
References
16 NATO Enlargement and the Failure of the Cooperative Security Mindset
NATO’s Rebranding Efforts: The Alluring Promise of Cooperative Security
The Baltic States and Poland: From Model Behavior to Moral Hazard?
Unresolved Grievances
Deterrence Above All Else
Fears Become Reality
Collective Security vs. Collective Defense: NATO’s Partners
Europeanization of Sweden’s and Finland’s Security and Defense Policies
Sweden and Finland and the Deteriorating International Environment
The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on the Scandinavian Neutrals
What Will Finland and Sweden Bring to NATO?
Conclusion
References
References
Index
