Engineering for Extremes: Decision-Making in an Uncertain World

Preface
Contents
About the Editors
Part I Introduction
1 Extreme Events for Infrastructure: Uncertainty and Risk
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Engineering for Extremes
1.3 Decision Challenges for Extreme Events
1.3.1 Worst-Case Thinking
1.3.2 Cost Neglect
1.3.3 Probability Neglect
1.3.4 Opportunity Costs
1.3.5 Acceptable Risk
1.4 Risk-Based Decision Support
1.4.1 Hazard Assessment
1.4.2 Fragility and Vulnerability
1.4.3 Losses
1.4.4 Risk Reduction
1.4.5 Decision Preference and Selection of Risk Mitigation Strategies
1.5 Summary
References
Part II Decision-Making
2 Risks and Compromises: Principled Compromises in Managing Societal Risks of Extreme Events
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Risk Assessment and Risk Evaluation
2.2.1 Review of Some of the Existing Methods for Risk Evaluation and Their Limitations
2.2.2 Characteristics of the Ideal Method for Risk Evaluation and Decision-Making
2.3 Dimensions of Risk in Risk Evaluation: Consequences, Probability, and Source
2.4 Decision-Making in Managing Societal Risks
2.5 Guidelines for Principled Compromises in Decision-Making
2.6 Conclusions
References
3 Risk-Informed Approaches for Mitigating Impacts of Extreme and Abnormal Events in the Built Environment
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Probability-Based Limit States Design
3.2.1 Development of Practical Design Criteria
3.2.2 Closure
3.3 Engineering Risk Assessment of the Built Environment
3.3.1 Fundamental Definitions and Methods of Risk Analysis
3.3.2 Conditional Event Analysis
3.3.3 Risk Measurement, Tolerance and Communication
3.4 Abnormal Loads
3.5 Reliability Bases for Disproportionate Collapse-Resistant Design
3.5.1 Design for Conditional Limit States
3.5.2 Risk-Consistent Load Factors and Load Combinations
3.6 Performance-Based Engineering and Design
3.7 Concluding Remarks
References
Part III Case Studies
4 Aviation Resilience to Terrorist Hijackings
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Risk Framework
4.3 Vulnerability and Reliability Analysis of the Existing Layers of Security Against a Hijacking
4.3.1 Pre-boarding Security Layers
4.3.2 In-Flight Security Layers
4.3.3 Post-Hijacking Security Layers
4.4 Adding a Security Layer: Installed Physical Secondary Barriers
4.5 Calculations of Reduction in Vulnerability
4.5.1 Substitution Effects and Adaptive Behaviour by Terrorists
4.5.2 Comparisons with Other Countries
4.5.3 Security Measures in Place in the US Before 2001
4.6 Benefit-to-Cost Ratio for IPSBS
4.7 Benefit-to-Cost Ratio for FFDOS and FAMS
4.8 Discussion
4.9 Conclusions
Appendix A: Reliability Analysis of Aviation Security
References
5 Challenges of Effective Blast Protection of Buildings
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 Design Requirements
5.2 Blast Load Estimation, Separation/Isolation
5.2.1 Blast Load Estimation
5.2.2 Blast Separation and Isolation
5.3 Structure Resistance Analysis and Strengthening
5.3.1 RC Columns
5.3.2 RC Slabs
5.3.3 P-I Diagrams
5.4 Uncertainty and Reliability
5.4.1 Blast Load
5.4.2 Structural Performance
5.5 Summary
References
6 Adaptation of Housing to Climate Change and Extreme Windstorms
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Risk Assessment Under Climate Change
6.2.1 General Framework for Windstorm Risk
6.2.2 Representative House in Brisbane
6.2.3 Economic Risks
6.3 Cost-effectiveness of Climate Adapation
6.3.1 Climate Adaptation Measures
6.3.2 Cost–benefit Analysis
6.4 Summary
References
7 Risk-Based Management of Electric Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Hurricane and Tornado Hazards
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Electric Power Systems
7.3 Hazard Analysis
7.3.1 Hurricane Hazard Analysis
7.3.2 Tornado Hazard Analysis
7.4 Risk Assessment and Management
7.4.1 Component-Level Risk Assessment
7.4.2 System-Level Risk Assessment
7.4.3 Risk Management
7.5 Case Studies
7.5.1 Case Study 1: Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Hurricanes
7.5.2 Case Study 2: Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Tornados
7.5.3 Discussion/Comparison of Both Hazards
7.6 Conclusions
References
8 Hurricane Fragility Assessment of Power Transmission Towers for a New Set of Performance-Based Limit States
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Finite Element Modeling of Transmission Towers
8.2.1 Steel Elements
8.2.2 Buckling
8.2.3 Joint Slippage and Joint Failure Model
8.3 Wind Load on Transmission Towers
8.4 Uncertainties and Probabilistic Simulation
8.5 Performance-Based Damage States for Transmission Towers
8.5.1 Slight Damage
8.5.2 Moderate Damage
8.5.3 Extensive Damage
8.5.4 Collapse
8.6 Fragility Modeling via Logistic Regression
8.7 Summary and Conclusion
References
9 Building Adaptation to Extreme Heatwaves
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Factors of Overheating
9.2.1 Low Energy Building Measures
9.2.2 Lightweight Construction Materials
9.2.3 Occupant Behaviour
9.2.4 Internal Heat Gain
9.2.5 Urban Heat Island Effects
9.3 Overheating Mitigation Measures
9.3.1 Modifying Surrounding Micro-Climate
9.3.2 Resisting Heat Transfer from Outdoor to Indoor
9.3.3 Absorbing the Transferred Heat
9.3.4 Releasing the Heat from Indoor to Outdoor
9.4 Mitigation of Heat Stress Risk Through Building Energy Retrofitting
9.5 Net-Benefit Analysis of Heatwave Adaptation Measures
9.5.1 Heatwave Cost
9.5.2 Heating Cost
9.5.3 Cooling Cost
9.5.4 Cost of Upgrading House Star Rating
9.5.5 Net Benefits of Upgrade
9.6 Emerging Technology to Minimise Building Overheating
9.7 Summary
References
10 Improving Regional Infrastructure Resilience to Earthquakes, Storms and Tsunami
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Some Limitations of Risk
10.3 Resilience
10.4 Improving Infrastructure Resilience to Extreme Natural Events
10.5 Strategy and Structure
10.6 Vulnerability
10.7 Significance and Virtual Pipelines
10.8 Results
10.9 Concluding Thoughts
References
11 Earthquake-Tsunami Risk Assessment and Critical Multi-hazard Loss Scenarios: A Case Study in Japan Under the Nankai-Tonankai Mega-Thrust
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Case Study
11.2.1 Nankai-Tonankai Mega-Thrust Events
11.2.2 Kuroshio Town, Kochi Prefecture, Japan
11.3 Multi-hazard Risk Assessment for the Nankai-Tonankai Mega-Thrust
11.3.1 Hazard Characterization
11.3.2 Fragility and Damage Evaluation
11.3.3 Risk Assessment
11.4 Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Results
11.4.1 Loss Distributions for Building Portfolio in Saga
11.4.2 Multi-hazard Shaking-Tsunami Hazard Intensity at Vertical Evacuation Tower in Saga
11.4.3 Critical Hazard-Risk Loss Scenario Maps
11.5 Conclusions
References
12 Building Resilience in Changing Cryosphere Services
12.1 The Cryosphere and Their Services Under Changing Climate
12.2 Pathways for Resilience Building in the Cryosphere
12.3 Building Resilience for the Changing Glacier Meltwater Services in the Tarim River Basin, Northwestern China
12.3.1 Study Area
12.3.2 Changes in the Glacier Meltwater Under Changing Climate
12.3.3 Importance of Glacier Meltwater to Agricultural Drought Risk Mitigation
12.3.4 Resilience Strategies for the Changing Glacier Meltwater Services
12.4 Summary
References
13 Extreme Vehicles and Bridge Safety
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Bridge Overloading Risks
13.2.1 Normal Traffic
13.2.2 Permit Vehicles
13.2.3 Superloads
13.3 Bridge Access Decision-Making
13.3.1 Background
13.3.2 Bridge Formulae
13.3.3 Line-Models
13.3.4 Rating Factors
13.3.5 Higher Tier Assessments
13.4 Network Assessments
13.4.1 Introduction
13.4.2 Reliability as the Performance Indicator
13.4.3 Risk as the Performance Indicator
13.5 Structural Health Monitoring
13.5.1 Monitoring Technologies
13.5.2 Value of Information
13.6 Discussion and Conclusions
References
14 Fire Safety in Road Tunnels
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Safety Criteria in Regulations and Standards
14.2.1 General
14.2.2 Prescriptive Versus Risk-Informed Approach
14.2.3 European Directive 2004/54/EC
14.2.4 Human Risk Criteria
14.2.5 Decision Criteria
14.3 Consequence Analysis Methods
14.3.1 General
14.3.2 Fire Propagation: CFD Analysis
14.3.3 Evacuation Analysis
14.3.4 Determination of Casualty Numbers
14.4 Case Study
14.4.1 General Description
14.4.2 CFD Analysis
14.4.3 Evacuation Simulation
14.4.4 Results
14.5 Concluding Remarks
References
15 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Design for Progressive Collapse Under Accidental or Malevolent Extreme Events
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Problem Formulation
15.2.1 Design Under Conventional and Abnormal Loads
15.2.2 Reliability Analysis
15.2.3 Quantifying Consequences of Failure
15.2.4 Optimal Design Under Conventional and Abnormal Loads
15.3 Plastic Design of a Continuous Steel Beam
15.4 The Column Loss Probability Threshold Concept
15.5 Design of Regular Plane Frames
15.5.1 Results: Comparison of Total Expected Costs
15.5.2 Results: Probability Threshold pCLth for Other Frame Aspect Ratios
15.5.3 Results: Comparison of Optimal Design Factors
15.6 Conclusions
References
16 Durability and Performance of Wind Turbines Under Climate Extremes
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Design Requirements
16.3 Computational Simulations
16.4 Climate Change Consideration for Environmental Variables
16.5 Modelling Impact of Durability on Performance
16.6 Decision Making Regarding Design, Operation and Maintenance
16.7 Conclusions
References
17 Extreme Value Analysis for Offshore Pipeline Risk Estimation
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Some Background
17.3 Pipeline Risk Assessment
17.4 Data Analysis
17.5 Estimation of the Probability of Failure
17.6 Extrapolation in Time
17.7 Clustering of Pit Locations and of Pit Depths
17.8 Conclusion
References
18 Reliability Assessment of Corroded Pipelines Subjected to Seismic Activity
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Corrosion Assessment Based on In-Line Measurements
18.2.1 Deterioration Caused by Corrosion
18.2.2 Failure Modes and Limit States
18.3 Seismic Hazards for Buried Onshore Pipelines
18.3.1 Permanent Ground Deformation (PGD)
18.3.2 Transient Ground Deformation
18.4 Reliability Assessment for Corroded Pipelines Subjected to Seismic Activity
18.4.1 Corrosion-Based Continuous Degradation
18.4.2 Seismic-Based Shock Degradation
18.4.3 Reliability Assessment
18.5 Case Study
18.6 Results and Discussion
18.7 Conclusions
References
19 Climate Change Impact for Bridges Subject to Flooding
19.1 Introduction
19.2 Climate Change Impacts on Bridge Scour
19.2.1 Background
19.2.2 Climate Change and River Flows
19.2.3 Local Scour Prediction Model
19.2.4 Probabilistic Assessment of Local Scour
19.2.5 Bridge Case Study
19.3 Results and Discussion
19.3.1 Effect of Changing Flow Characteristics on Pier Scour Failure Probability
19.3.2 Effect of Foundation Depth on Scour Probability of Failure
19.3.3 Effect of Model Parameter λsc on Predicted Scour Depths and Failure Probabilities
19.4 Conclusions
References
20 Bushfire and Climate Change Risks to Electricity Transmission Networks
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Fundamentals of Bushfire Behaviour
20.3 Effects of Weather and Climate on Bushfire Behaviour
20.3.1 Fire Danger Indices
20.3.2 Fireline Intensity
20.3.3 Climate Change on Bushfires and Electricity Transmission
20.4 Bushfire Impact Mechanisms to Electricity Transmission
20.5 Methods for Assessing Bushfire Risk to Electricity Transmission Lines
20.5.1 Physics-Based Assessment Methods
20.5.2 Statistical Assessment Methods
20.6 Adaptation and Resilience
20.6.1 Adaptation of Transmission Network
20.6.2 Resilience Assessment for Transmission Networks
20.7 Conclusions
References
21 Provisions for Climate Change in Structural Design Standards
21.1 Introduction
21.2 Design Basis for Wind Load
21.3 Review of Anthropogenic Climate Change
21.3.1 Forcing Pathways
21.3.2 Natural and Forced Pathways
21.3.3 Socioeconomic Decision-Making
21.3.4 Regional Scale Extreme Climate Risk
21.3.5 Down-Scaled Projections for South Africa
21.4 Design Situation for ACC Conditions
21.4.1 ACC Scenarios as Design Situation
21.4.2 Vulnerability Assessment
21.5 Design Basis for ACC Situation
21.5.1 General Requirements
21.5.2 Design Requirements
21.5.3 ACC Robustness Verification
21.6 Application of ACC Design Base
21.7 Conclusions
References
Part IV Conclusions and Recommendations
22 Conclusions for Engineers and Policy Makers