A hands-on approach to the basic principles of empirical model building. Includes a series of real-world statistical problems illustrating modeling skills and techniques. Covers models of growth and decay, systems where competition and interaction add to the complexity of the model, and discusses both classical and nonclassical data analysis methods.
Author(s): James R. Thompson
Edition: 1
Year: 1989
Language: English
Pages: 264
Empirical Model Building......Page 7
Contents......Page 18
Introduction......Page 20
1.1. A Simple Pension and Annuity Plan......Page 25
1.2. Income Tax Bracket Creep......Page 30
1.3. Retirement of a Mortgage......Page 38
1.4. Some Mathematical Descriptions of the Model of Malthus......Page 43
1.5. Metastasis and Resistance......Page 54
2.1. An Analysis of the Demographics of Ancient Israel Based on Figures in the Books of Numbers, Judges, and II Samuel......Page 63
2.2. The Plague and John Graunt’s Life Table......Page 69
2.3. Modular Wargaming......Page 73
2.4. Predation and Immune Response Systems......Page 90
2.5. Pyramid Clubs for Fun and Profit......Page 95
2.6. A Simple Model of AIDS......Page 98
3.1. Simulation-Based Techniques for Dealing with Problems Usually Approached via Differential Equation Modeling......Page 111
3.2. SIMDAT: An Algorithm for Data-Based Simulation......Page 127
3.3 Simulation-Based Estimation......Page 133
4.1. A Glimpse at Exploratory Data Analysis......Page 152
4.2. Nonparametric Density Estimation......Page 167
5.1. Some Problems with Group Consensus......Page 177
5.2. Stein’s Paradox......Page 196
5.3. Fuzzy Set Theory......Page 202
5.4. Quality Control......Page 207
A.1. A Brief Primer in Stochastics......Page 218
A.2. A Simple Optimization Algorithm that Usually Works......Page 253
Index......Page 258
