Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Author(s): Mary A. Meyer, Jane M. Booker
Year: 2001
Language: English
Pages: 492
Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide......Page 2
ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability......Page 3
ISBN 0-89871-474-5......Page 5
Contents......Page 8
Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition......Page 22
Preface......Page 24
List of Figures......Page 26
List of Tables......Page 28
List of Examples......Page 30
Part I Introduction to Expert Judgment......Page 34
1 Introduction......Page 36
2 Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment......Page 50
3 Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias......Page 68
Part II Elicitation Procedures......Page 88
4 Selecting the Question Areas and Questions......Page 90
5 Refining the Questions......Page 102
6 Selecting and Motivating the Experts......Page 118
7 Selecting the Components of Elicitation......Page 132
8 Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation......Page 156
9 Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel......Page 184
10 Conducting the Elicitation......Page 196
Part III Analysis Procedures......Page 220
11 Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data......Page 222
12 Initial Look at the Data—The First Analyses......Page 268
13 Understanding the Data Base Structure......Page 282
14 Correlation and Bias Detection......Page 302
15 Model Formation......Page 326
16 Combining Responses—Aggregation......Page 348
17 Characterizing Uncertainties......Page 386
18 Making Inferences......Page 406
Appendix A—SAATY......Page 420
Appendix B—MCBETA......Page 424
Appendix C—EMPIRICAL......Page 438
Appendix D—BOOT......Page 448
Glossary of Expert JudgmentTerms......Page 456
References......Page 474
Index......Page 484
