Electric Utility Resource Planning: Past, Present and Future covers the balance of renewable costs, energy storage, and flexible backstop mechanisms needed in electric utility resource planning. In addition, it covers the optimization of planning methodologies and market design. The book argues that net load, ramping and volatility concerns associated with renewables call into question the validity of almost a century of planning approaches. Finally, it suggests that accounting for flexibility helps optimize the efficiency of the entire fleet of assets, minimizing costs and CO2 generation simultaneously, concluding that a flexible, independent backstop mechanism is needed, regardless of renewables or storage. Case studies provide a mix of hypothetical "what if" scenarios and analyses of real-life utility portfolios drawn from international examples. Examines how resource planners and policy specialists can plan to incorporate renewable generation technologies, thus uniting considerations of technology, methodology, business and policy Focuses on the reality of long-term decision-making and planning processes in working utilities Reviews novel approaches towards resource planning that yield lower costs and CO2 Emphasizes the need for flexible backstop mechanisms to maintain reliability
Author(s): Joe Ferrari
Publisher: Elsevier
Year: 2020
Language: English
Pages: 258
City: Amsterdam
Electric Utility Resource Planning
Copyright
Contents
Preface
1 Introduction to electric utilities and how they plan for the future
Introduction
Electric utilities: the basics
The early history of the electric utility
The early stages of the evolution of cost approaches
Varying technology types that made up (and still make up) the generation mix of most utilities
Coal boiler plants
Combustion turbines
Combined-cycle combustion turbines
Reciprocating engines (Recips)
Hydro
Nuclear
Other
Long-range planning (also referred to as long-term planning or integrated resource planning)
Basics of utility long-range planning
Load forecasting
Capacity expansion planning
Risk/uncertainty assessment
Major approaches to capacity expansion planning
Approach 1—capital cost
Approach 2—annual cost
Approach 3—levelized cost of energy
Approach 4—load duration curve-screening curve approach
Approach 5—all source-load duration curve approach
Approach 6—load duration curve-based capacity expansion models
Approach 7—modified load duration curve-based capacity expansion models
Approach 8—chronological capacity expansion models
Summary and timeline of capacity expansion planning approaches
References
2 Influx of variable renewable energy sources, the way things are going
Introduction
Policy and incentives driving change
Brief history of solar power
Brief history of wind power
Trends in installed solar and wind capacity and pricing
How solar and wind impact dispatch and pricing
Variability of solar and wind
Net load versus load
Challenges renewables impose on baseload generators
Effect of geographic diversity
Time scale is important
Solar and wind degradation rates
Baseload is going away, enter residual loads
Ramifications for resource planning
References
3 Energy storage and conversion
Basic principles of energy storage
Size and duration
Types of energy storage
Pumped hydro
Flywheels
Thermal storage
Other forms of thermal energy storage
Battery energy storage
Lead-acid
Nickel cadmium and nickel–metal hydride
Sodium-sulfur
Lithium-ion
Flow batteries
Compressed air energy storage
Liquid air energy storage
Trends in deployment of energy storage
Degradation issues
Reference metrics for common forms of energy storage
Resource planning considerations
Is storage even in the integrated resource plan?
The case for real-time considerations
Chronological capacity expansion to value flexibility
Mandates and subsidies
References
4 Renewable fuels for long-term energy storage
Introduction
Renewable fuels as long-term energy storage
What about biofuels?
Direct combustion
Recycled biofuels
Synthetic biofuels
Resource planning considerations
Hydrogen
Power to hydrogen
Alkaline electrolyzers
Proton exchange membrane electrolyzers
Comparison of alkaline and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers
Hydrogen to power
Fuel cells
Combustion turbines and reciprocating engines
Resource planning considerations for hydrogen
Heating value and energy density
Storage and transport
Water consumption for hydrogen production from electrolysis
Electrical conversion efficiency
Global hydrogen production facilities and electrolyzer costs
Blending hydrogen with natural gas
Direct air carbon capture
High-temperature aqueous solution direct air capture
Low-temperature solid sorbent direct air capture
Resource planning considerations for direct air capture
Methanation: combining hydrogen and carbon
Catalytic/thermochemical methanation
Biological methanation
Resource planning considerations for methanation
Final thoughts on renewable fuels
References
5 Long-term capacity expansion planning
Introduction
Costs in capacity expansion
Operating expenditures
Fixed operations and maintenance
Capital expenditures
The supply stack and marginal cost
Net load and the supply stack
Real-time dispatch
Capacity factors
Screening curves
Load duration curve
Using the load duration curve for long-term planning
Generic five-step capacity expansion framework, traditional approach
Convergence contingent on reserve provision and reliability
Production cost models
Concerns related to traditional approaches, particularly for systems with variable renewable energy
Importance of dynamic features
Attempted fixes to the traditional approach
Advanced approaches—chronological long-term planning models
Capacity expansion models for regional and policy initiatives
Final considerations for resource planners and analysts
References
6 Illustrating concepts with examples
How flexibility reduces curtailment and maximizes the value of variable renewable energy sources
The impact of increasing variable renewable energy penetration on day ahead and real-time pricing
Examples of variable renewable energy driving baseload and intermediate resources out of the market
Resource planning considerations
Ancillary services
Flexible capacity in organized markets
Example from SPP (2014)
Example from NYISO (2016)
Example from ERCOT (2016)
Example from SPP (2018)
Example from CAISO (2019)
Resource planning considerations
Energy storage (and flexible capacity in general) in integrated resource plans
The future direction of integrated resource plans
References
7 Pathways to 100% decarbonization
Learning from the past
The definition of “100%”: the importance of semantics
Pathways to 100%
The path to 100% renewable
100% renewable leads to oversupply
Wasting oversupply weakens the economic case for variable renewable energy
Land requirements for variable renewable energy development
Opposition to land use for variable renewable energy development
Resource planning considerations
The path to 100% carbon-free
Carbon-free power systems reduce oversupply and require less land
Hydrogen and nuclear in carbon-free power systems
Resource planning considerations
The path to 100% carbon-neutral (net-zero)
Planning for reliability
Resource planning considerations
Summary of the pathways to 100%
A comparison of different pathways using capacity expansion analyses
New-build capacity by scenario
Land use
Generation, load, curtailment, and air emissions
Timing of use of power to methane in the 100% carbon-neutral scenario
Long-term storage potential of power to gas
Costs
Summary
Final thoughts on pathways to 100% and the importance of resource planning
References
Index
