ADB, SIDA, 2009. 94 p. ISBN:9715617932.
This report analyzes the environmental performance of e-bikes relative to other competing modes, their market potential, and the viability of alternative battery technologies. It also frames the role of e-bikes in the PRC's transportation system and recommends policy for decision makers in the PRC's central and municipal governments.
Electric bikes (e-bikes) provide low-cost, convenient, and relatively energy-efficient transportation to an estimated 40 million-50 million people in the People's Republic of China (PRC), quickly becoming one of the dominant travel modes in the country. As e-bike use grows, concerns are rising about lead pollution from their batteries and emissions from their use of grid electricity, primarily generated by coal power plants.
Contents.
Abbreviations.
Acknowledgments.
Executive Summary.
Introduction.
SECTION 1: Energy Use and Emissions of Electric Bike Life Cycle.
Production Processes.
End-of-Life.
Lead Acid Batteries.
Use Phase.
Total Environmental Impacts of Electric Bike Life Cycle.
SECTION 2: Environmental Impacts of Alternative Modes.
Energy Use and Emissions of a Bicycle.
Production Phase.
Use Phase.
Energy Use and Emissions of Motorcycles and Scooters.
Production Phase.
Lead Pollution from Motorcycle Batteries.
Use Phase.
Energy Use and Bus Emissions.
Production Phase.
Lead Pollution from Bus Batteries.
Use Phase.
Modal Comparison of Environmental Impacts.
Distribution of Environmental Impacts.
Direction of Public Health Impacts.
Public Health Impacts of Air Pollution.
Public Health Impacts of Lead Pollution.
SECTION 3: Influence of Electric Bikes on Motorization Trends.
Introduction to Motorized Two-Wheeler Market: Past and Present.
Projections for Motorized Two-Wheeler Market Growth from Literature.
Motorcycle and Electric Bike Ownership Growth Scenarios through to 2025.
Methodology.
Results.
Factors Influencing Future Growth in Electric Two-Wheeler Market.
Methodology.
Driving Forces.
Force 1: Technology Improvements.
Force 2: Local Motorcycle Bans.
Force 3: Local Policy Support for Electric Bikes.
Force 4: Deteriorating Public Bus Transport.
Other Driving Forces.
Resisting Forces.
Force 1: Strong Demand for Motorcycles.
Force 2: Bans on Electric Bikes.
Force 3: Support for Public Bus Transport.
Interrelatedness of Forces.
Quantifying the Forces.
Prospects of Electric Bikes in Other Southeast Asian Countries.
Conclusions.
SECTION 4: Electric Two-Wheeler Battery Technology Status.
Methodology.
Battery Industry in the People’s Republic of China.
Valve-Regulated Lead Acid Production.
Lithium-Ion Production.
Batteries for Electric Bikes.
Valve-Regulated Lead Acid.
Lithium Ion.
Nickel-Metal Hydride.
Electric Bike Battery Requirements.
Electric Bike Battery Performance and Price.
Valve-Regulated Lead Acid Battery Performance and Price.
Cycle Life.
Defect Rate.
Lithium-Ion Performance and Price.
Battery Transitions in the Electric Bike Market.
Performance Test of Electric Bikes.
Experimental Setup.
Testing Procedures.
Test Results.
Test Conclusions.
Japanese and European Markets.
Electric Bike Market Growth and Opportunities for Battery Improvements.
Cell Variability.
Safety.
Cost.
Conclusions.
SECTION 5: Conclusions and Policy Recommendations.
References.
