The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region. The Outlook comprises four main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the economic outlook and macroeconomic challenges in the region. The second part consists of a special thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region. The 2019 edition of the Outlook looks at smart cities, with a special focus on transportation. Addressing traffic congestion, in particular, is critical in realising the potential benefits of urbanisation for growth. The third part of the report includes structural country notes offering specific recommendations for each country, and the fourth part discusses the recent progress made in key aspects of regional integration.
Author(s): coll.
Series: Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India
Publisher: OECD
Year: 0
Language: English
Pages: 280
Foreword......Page 5
Acknowledgements......Page 7
Table of contents......Page 9
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 13
Executive summary......Page 17
Table 1. Real GDP Growth in Southeast Asia, China and India......Page 19
Chapter 1: Macroeconomic assessment and economic outlook......Page 41
Figure 1.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India......Page 42
Table 1.1. Real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India......Page 43
Box 1.1. Key assumptions of the medium-term outlook to 2023......Page 45
Table 1.2. Recent real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2017-18......Page 46
Figure 1.14. Goods exports of China and India, 2017-18......Page 65
Inflation picture is still mixed......Page 67
Figure 1.18. Portfolio and other investment inflows in Emerging Asian countries,2014-18......Page 72
Figure 1.20. Stock market returns in Emerging Asian countries, 2016-18......Page 74
Deficits in current account and fiscal position need to be monitored......Page 77
Banking sector is generally stable even though risk factors......Page 82
Challenges to robust growth......Page 85
Notes......Page 103
References......Page 104
Chapter 2: Towards smart urban transportation in Emerging Asia......Page 109
Box 2.1. What is a smart city?......Page 110
Table 2.1. ASEAN Smart Cities Network pilot cities......Page 112
Conclusion......Page 141
References......Page 142
Chapter 3: Structural policy country notes......Page 145
ASEAN-5......Page 147
Indonesia......Page 148
Malaysia......Page 156
Philippines......Page 161
Thailand......Page 172
Viet Nam......Page 180
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM AND SINGAPORE......Page 185
Brunei Darussalam......Page 186
Singapore......Page 191
CLM......Page 197
Cambodia......Page 198
Lao PDR......Page 205
Myanmar......Page 212
CHINA AND INDIA......Page 223
China......Page 224
India......Page 230
Chapter 4: Progress towards regional integration in Emerging Asia......Page 239
Introduction......Page 240
TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES......Page 242
INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL MARKET LIBERALISATION......Page 246
COMPETITION AND CONSUMER PROTECTION......Page 248
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY......Page 250
Table 4.2. Progress in the ASEAN Highway Network project to connect and upgrade highways......Page 253
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES......Page 255
FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY......Page 258
TOURISM......Page 260
Table 4.3. ASCC characteristics and key result areas......Page 262
Table 4.5. APAEC 2016-2025 programme areas......Page 266
Table 4.6. Focus areas of Initiative for ASEAN Integration Work Plans......Page 270
References......Page 274
Table A.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India......Page 277
Figures......Page 10
Table 2. Availability of Fintech services in Emerging Asia......Page 22
Table 3. Fintech-related regulations in Emerging Asia......Page 23
Table 4. Publicly accessible transportation modes in selected Emerging Asian cities......Page 28
Figure 4. Households owning cars by wealth quintile in selected Emerging Asian countries......Page 29
Table 6. Structural policy challenges in Emerging Asian countries......Page 33
Table 7. Summary of progress of regional integration in Emerging Asia......Page 37
Box 1.5. Dollarisation in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar......Page 76
Table 1.4. Availability of Fintech services in Emerging Asia......Page 86
Table 1.6. Fintech regulatory agencies in Emerging Asia......Page 89
Figure 1.30. Average annual damage and average annual occurrence, 1998-2018......Page 98
Table 1.8. How Emerging Asian countries score on World Risk Index, 2012-16......Page 101
Box 2.2. Measurement of the impact of congestion on productivity......Page 114
Table 2.3. Share of trips to work by public transportation in selected cities......Page 116
Table 2.4. Public transportation fares in selected Emerging Asian cities......Page 117
Box 2.3. Non-motorised transportation in Emerging Asian cities......Page 118
Figure 2.4. Estimated total motor vehicles in use, 2005-15......Page 120
Table 2.7. Selected vehicle acquisition taxes and fees in Emerging Asia......Page 122
Table 2.8. Traffic conditions in Singapore during peak hours, 2004-14......Page 127
Box 2.6. Flexible working schedule is a stepping stone in achieving work-life balance......Page 133
Table 2.10. Land use distribution of Putrajaya, Malaysia......Page 138
Table 3.4.1. Targeted public and private investment into the EEC......Page 176
Box 3.4.1. Vocational schools in Thailand’s education system......Page 177
Table 3.5.1. PISA scores in 2015 for selected countries in the region......Page 182
Table 3.7.1. Singaporeans benefited from SkillsFuture, 2017......Page 195
Table 3.9.1. Sources of electricity production in Lao PDR, 2000-15......Page 207
Table 3.12.1. Entry routes and FDI caps in different sectors, 2017......Page 233
Table 4.1. Progress in Emerging Asia’s integration in key policy areas......Page 241
Table 4.4. ASEAN Framework Action Plan country coordinators and potential partners......Page 264
Table 4.7. Funding and implementation of Initiative for ASEAN Integration Work Plans I and II......Page 272
Table A.3. General government fiscal balances of Southeast Asia, China and India......Page 278
Figure 1. Intermediate goods exports to China, 2017......Page 24
Figure 2. Average annual damage as percentage of GDP and average annual occurrence of natural disasters, 1998-2018......Page 25
Figure 3. Traffic congestion for selected roads of Southeast Asian cities, 2018......Page 27
Figure 5. Share of trips to work by car in selected Emerging Asian cities......Page 30
Figure 6. Share of total urban population by density in Emerging Asian countries, 2015......Page 32
Box 1.2. Asian Games 2018 economic impact......Page 47
Figure 1.4. Gross exports YOY growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, 2017-18......Page 49
Figure 1.5. Consumer confidence indices in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, 2017-18......Page 51
Figure 1.6. Tourist arrivals (3-month rolling sum) in ASEAN-5 countries, 2017-18......Page 53
Figure 1.7. Contributions to growth in Brunei Darussalam and Singapore, 2016-18......Page 55
Figure 1.8. Goods exports of Brunei Darussalam and Singapore, 2017-18......Page 56
Figure 1.9. Contributions to growth in CLM countries, 2015-17......Page 58
Figure 1.10. Goods exports of CLM countries, 2017-18......Page 60
Figure 1.11. Contributions to growth in China and India, 2016-18......Page 62
Figure 1.13. Purchasing managers’ indices in China and India, 2017-18......Page 63
Figure 1.15. Foreign direct investment in Emerging Asian countries, 2014-18......Page 66
Figure 1.16. Inflation in Emerging Asia, 2017-18......Page 68
Box 1.4. Oil price pass through to inflation......Page 70
Figure 1.19. Nominal effective exchange rate in Emerging Asia, 2017-18......Page 73
Figure 1.22. Credit default swap spreads (5-year senior) in Emerging Asia, 2014-18......Page 75
Figure 1.23. Current account balances of Emerging Asian countries......Page 79
Box 1.6. Managing taxpayers’ compliance......Page 81
Figure 1.25. Bank lending in Emerging Asian countries, 2016-18......Page 83
Figure 1.27. Financial Literacy Index and Financial Product Usage Index, 2014-17......Page 93
Figure 1.28. Intermediate good exports to China as a percentage of GDP, 2017......Page 94
Figure 1.29. Emerging Asia’s forward and backward GVC participation in trade with China, 2011......Page 95
Figure 2.2. Traffic congestion for selected roads of Southeast Asia cities, 2018......Page 113
Figure 2.3. Walkability Index scores for selected Emerging Asian cities......Page 119
Figure 2.5. Households owning cars by wealth quintile in selected Emerging Asian countries......Page 121
Figure 2.6. Motor vehicles and transport tax revenue, 2013......Page 123
Figure 2.7. Households owning motorbikes or scooters by wealth quintile in selected Emerging Asian countries......Page 124
Figure 2.9. Annual median pump price for diesel and gasoline in Emerging Asian countries, 2016......Page 125
Box 2.4. Fuel and household transportation expenditure in the Philippines......Page 126
Figure 2.11. Road traffic fatalities in Emerging Asia, 2013......Page 128
Box 2.5. The effects of taxis, ride-sourcing and ride-sharing services on congestion......Page 129
Figure 2.13. Employees’ working hours flexibility in European countries, 2015......Page 134
Figure 2.14. Share of total urban population by density in Emerging Asian countries, 2015......Page 136
Box 2.8. Smart trade can facilitate cross-border transportation between border cities......Page 139
Figure 3.1.2. Access to mobile cellular and Internet, 2017......Page 150
Figure 3.1.4. Mobile money awareness......Page 151
Figure 3.3.1. Annual value added and annual compensation per paid employee in business process management, 2015......Page 167
Figure 3.6.1. Different types of establishments in Brunei, 2008......Page 188
Figure 3.8.1. Development of tourism in Cambodia, 2000-17......Page 200
Figure 3.8.3. Foreign visitors’ destinations in Cambodia, Q1 2017......Page 202
Figure 3.9.1. Value and share of electricity exports from Lao PDR, 2003-17......Page 208
Figure 3.9.2. Cost of electricity from utility-scale renewable energies, 2010 and 2017......Page 209
Figure 3.10.1. International arrivals and receipts in Myanmar, 1995-2015......Page 214
Figure 3.10.2. Biggest obstacle to operations reported by firms, 2016......Page 215
Figure 3.10.3. FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index in selected sectors in Emerging Asian countries......Page 216
Box 3.10.1. ASEAN initiatives are addressing common challenges in travel and tourism......Page 217
Figure 3.10.5. Contributions of travel and tourism to GDP in Emerging Asia, 2016......Page 220
Figure 3.11.1. Chinese patent applications have soared......Page 226
Figure 3.11.2. Productivity’s role in driving growth has fallen......Page 227
Figure 3.11.3. Research collaboration is less common in electronics and among smaller firms......Page 228
Figure 3.12.1. Innovation and technology use among Indian firms by ownership, 2014......Page 234
Figure 3.12.2. Firm distribution by ownership and municipality population, 2014......Page 235
Figure 4.1. GDP per capita and extreme poverty in Emerging Asia, 1990‑2016......Page 263
Figure 4.2. Changes in energy efficiency in Emerging Asian countries, 2005-2015......Page 267
Figure 4.3. Efficiency of customs clearance processes in ASEAN-6 and CLMV, 2016......Page 271
Boxes......Page 12
Box 1.3. Importance of the spill-over effects of infrastructure......Page 59
Box 1.7. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030......Page 100
Box 2.7. Administrative and capital relations in Malaysia and Myanmar......Page 137
Box 3.1.1. The regulatory environment for P2P lending in the international market......Page 153
Box 3.5.1. New labour policies......Page 183
Box 4.1. Greater Mekong Sub-region co-operation on improving energy efficiency......Page 268
