Dynamics of Democracy in Taiwan: The Ma Ying-jeou Years

Cover
Title page
copyright page
Contents
Illustrations
Acknowledgments
Ch1- The Dynamics of Democracy During the Ma Ying-jeou Years
Quality of Democracy During the Ma Era
Table 1.1 Freedom House Overall Score for Selected Countries (1–7 Scale), 2008–2018
Figure 1.1 Freedom House Aggregate Score for Selected Countries, 2014–2019
Taiwan’s Economic Challenges and Opportunities at the Beginning of the Ma Era
Ma’s Grand Strategy: Opening Through Accommodation
Dangerous Shoals: How Ma’s Grand Strategy Foundered
Figure 1.2 Annual GDP Change in Taiwan by Quarter, 2000–2019
Figure 1.3 Nominal GDP per Capita in Asia, 2000–2018
Figure 1.4 Taiwan’s Official Monthly Unemployment Rate, 2000–2020
Figure 1.5 Purchasing Power Parity–Adjusted GDP per Capita in Asia, 2000–2016
Outline of the Book
Notes
Ch2- The 2012 Elections Shelley Rigger
Ma’s First Term
The Presidential Campaign
Legislative Elections and the James Soong Factor
Conclusion
Notes
Ch3- The DPP in Opposition
Learning from the DPP’s 2008 Electoral Fiasco
The Rise of Tsai Ing-wen: Balancing Factions and Seeking Consensus
Institutional Reform, the 2012 Elections, and the Presidentialization of the DPP
The Pan-Green Coalition in the 2016 Legislative Elections
Figure 3.1 Pan-Green Camp Vote Share in 2012 vs. 2016 Legislative Elections by Coalition Method
Information Technology, Campaign Strategies, and Presidentialization of the DPP
Conclusion
Notes
Ch4- The KMT in Power
The KMT’s Election Debacle
Presidentialized Parties
The KMT as a Presidentialized Party
The Political Context
Figure 4.1 National Identity and Legislative Election Results, 1991–2016
Figure 4.2 National Identity, Opening to China, and Presidential Vote, 2008–2016
Table 4.1 Attitudes Toward Various Formulations for Cross-Strait Relations, 2015 and 2016
President Ma’s Efforts to Pass the Cross-Strait Services Trade Act
Figure 4.3 Support for the Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement, 2013–2014
The Lame Duck Period: A Leaderless Presidentialized Party
Table 4.2 Maintaining Cross-Strait Peace and Protecting Taiwan’s Interests, 2012 and 2016
Table 4.3 KMT and DPP Positions on the Independence-Unification Spectrum, 2008 and 2016
Conclusion
Notes
Ch5- The Party System Before and After the 2016 Elections
Was 2016 Different?
Party System Institutionalization
Table 5.1 Electoral Volatility in Taiwan, 1995–2020
Table 5.2 Electoral Volatility in Asia
Figure 5.1 Partisanship in Taiwan, 1994–2019
The 2016 Elections: Realignment or Deviation?
Figure 5.2 A “Major” Realignment: A New Dimension of Competition Breaks Apart Existing Party Coalitions
Figure 5.3 A “Minor” Realignment: The Party System Shifts from Parity to an Advantage for Party A
Figure 5.4 Tsai Ing-wen District Vote Share Compared to DPP, NPP, and Other Third-Party Candidates in 2016
Table 5.3 Party-List Vote Shares in the 2016 Legislative Yuan Election
Conclusion
Notes
Ch6- The Challenges of Governance
Unfavorable Structural Conditions
Institutional Constraints
The Poisoned Social and Political Soil
A Perfect Political Storm
Sailing in a Raging Sea Without a Captain
Conclusion
Notes
Ch7- Legislative Politics
Figure 7.1 Success Rates of Government Bills in Taiwan and Other Democracies
The Policymaking Consequences of Legislative Organization
The Policymaking Consequences of Legislative Organization
Taiwan’s Decentralized Legislature
Figure 7.2 Legislative Review Process in the Legislative Yuan
Empirical Implications of Decentralized Organization in the Ma Era
Table 7.1 Distribution of Bills, All Ma Years
Table 7.2 Distribution of Committee Chairmanships, Ma Years (September 19, 2008–December 18, 2015)
Table 7.3 Decisionmaking Mechanisms for Bills at the Second Reading, Ma Years
Table 7.4 Outcomes of Negotiation, Ma Years
Table 7.5 Outcomes of Negotiation by Initiator, Ma Years
Table 7.6 Success Rates of Legislative Bills by Initiator, Ma Years
Beyond Legislative Success: Compromising to Succeed
Table 7.7 Success Rates by Scope of Bills, Ma Years
Table 7.8 Compromised Outcomes in High-Priority Legislation
Lawmaking in the Tsai Ing-wen Era
Conclusion
Notes
Ch8- Watchdog Institutions
Organizational Redundancy and Its Consequences
More Surveillance, Less Accountability
Figure 8.1 Approved Wiretapping Warrants: Cases, Lines, and Duration, 2007–2014
Figure 8.2 Indictments on Political Corruption Charges: Cases and Persons, 1994–2015
Figure 8.3 Indictments on Political Corruption Charges: Position of Indicted Persons and Involved Sums, 1994–2015
Information: Watching the Watchers
Accusations of Partiality
Conclusion
Notes
Ch9- Managing the Economy
Figure 9.1 Gross Domestic Investment in Taiwan, 2000–2017
Figure 9.2 Foreign Direct Investment in Taiwan, 2000–2017
The Taiwan Disease: Anti-Developmentalist Populism, Economic Dualism, and Social Fragmentation
Revisiting State-Business Relations in the Ma Era
Cross-Strait Normalization Sparks a Political Backlash
Reframing the Taiwan Paradox: A Taiwanese Variant of Capitalist Democracy
Notes
Ch10- Assessing Support for Democracy
Is Democratic Legitimacy Damaged by Bad Governance?
Table 10.1 Four Waves of the Asian Barometer Survey in Taiwan
Democratic Legitimacy and Consolidation
Trust in Political Institutions
Figure 10.1 Trust in Political Institutions
Figure 10.2 Trust in Political Institutions by Age Cohort
Detachment from Authoritarianism
Figure 10.3 Detachment from Authoritarianism in Taiwan
Figure 10.4 Detachment from Authoritarianism by Age Cohort
Support for Democracy
Figure 10.5 Democratic Demand vs. Supply in Taiwan
Figure 10.6 Preference for Democracy in Taiwan
Figure 10.7 Suitability of Democracy for Taiwan
Age, Education, Partisanship, and Support for Democracy
Figure 10.8 Efficacy of Democracy in Taiwan
Figure 10.9 Direct Support for Democracy by Partisanship
The Cultural Foundation of Democratic Legitimacy
Figure 10.10 Democratic Value Orientations: Indirect Support for Democracy
Conclusion
Notes
Ch11- Trends in Public Opinion
Trends in Party Identification: A Changing Party System
Figure 11.1 Party Identification in Taiwan, 1994–2016
Trends in Preferences for Unification vs. Independence: Dominance of the Status Quo
Figure 11.2 Preference for Unification vs. Independence in Taiwan, 1994–2016
Trends in Self-Identity: The Supremacy of Taiwanese Identity
Figure 11.3 Self-Identity in Taiwan, 1994–2016
Moderate Associations Between Self-Identity and Political Parties
Figure 11.4 Self-Identity and Partisan Support in Taiwan, 1994–2016
Support for the Status Quo Cuts Across Party Lines
Figure 11.5 Preference for Unification vs. Independence and Partisan Support in Taiwan, 1994–2016
Associations Between Self-Identity and Preference for Unification vs. Independence
Figure 11.6 Self-Identity and Preference for Unification vs. Independence in Taiwan, 1994–2016
Effects on Preference for Unification vs. Independence by Power Alternation
Table 11.1 Impacts of Power Alternation on Preferencefor Unification vs. Independence
Conclusion
Notes
Ch12- The Impact of Social Movements
Internal Impacts
Sensitizing Impacts
Procedural Impacts
Structural Impacts
Substantive Impacts
Political Impacts
Notes
Ch13- Who Are the Protesters? Why Are They Protesting?
Political Protest During Taiwan’s Democratic Transition and Consolidation
Previous Research on Civil Society Activism and Protest Events in Taiwan
Who Is Protesting? Participants in Political Activism
Figure 13.1 Activism in Taiwan
Why Are They Protesting? The Political Views of Activists
Figure 13.2 Fluctuating Activism by Education and Generation
Table 13.1 ANOVA Means Comparison
Figure 13.3 Share of Respondents Who Thought Last Presidential Election Was Unfair
Mass Protest and Democratic Resilience
Figure 13.4 Taiwanese Identity and Perceived Corruption
Table 13.2 Means Comparisons of Targeted Groups for Democratic Attitudes
Conclusion
Notes
Ch14- Social Media and Cyber-Mobilization
Figure 14.1 Approval/Disapproval Ratings of President Ma
Internet Usage and Political Communication
Figure 14.2 Online News Readership During Presidential Campaigns by Age, 2008–2016
Figure 14.3 Online News Readership in an Off-Election Year, by Age, 2017
Figure 14.4 Share of Respondents Who Visited Candidate Homepages or Social-Networking Services, by Age, 2008–2016
Figure 14.5 Use of Social Media to Engage with Political Issues, by Party, 2014
Figure 14.6 Share of Respondents Who Visited Candidate Homepages or Social-Networking Services (top); Online News Readership During Presidential Campaign (bottom),by Party, 2008–2012
Figure 14.7 Online News Readership in an Off-Election Year, by Party, 2017
Cyber-Mobilization and Social Movements
Figure 14.8 Scale of Three Social Movements
Cyber-Mobilization and Elections
Cyber-Mobilization and the Formation of New Alliances
Figure 14.9 Proportion of Social-Networking-Service Use and Mobilization by Supporters of Taipei City Mayoral Candidates in 2014
Figure 14.10 Degree of Use of Social-Networking Services for Political Activities by Supporters of Taipei City Mayoral Candidates in 2014
Figure 14.11 Negative Image of Sean Lien by Type of Social Media Usagei n Taipei’s 2014 Mayoral Election
Figure 14.12 Negative Image of Ko Wen-je by Type of Social Media Usagein Taipei’s 2014 Mayoral Election
Figure 14.13 Image of the Sunflower Movement by Respondent Vote Choice in Taipei’s 2014 Mayoral Election
Conclusion
Notes
Ch15- Cross-Strait Relations
Creation of the “1992 Consensus”
Putting the Consensus to Work
The 1992 Consensus on the Domestic Front
Table 15.1 Cross-Straight Agreements Signed During the Ma Era, 2008–2016
The 1992 Consensus: Still Alive?
Postscript
Notes
Ch16- In the Shadow of Great Power Rivalry
Taipei’s Relations with Washington, DC, After 2008
Rising US and Japanese Wariness of the KMT’s “One China” Policy
Tsai Ing-wen and the Future of United States–Taiwan Relations
Notes
Bibliography
The Contributors
Index
About the Book