This edited volume examines deterrence and the defense efforts of European states neighboring Russia, following the Crimean intervention. Deterrence, after being largely absent from debates among academics and policy-makers for almost a quarter of a century, has made a comeback in Europe. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea and the start of the military conflict in Ukraine's Donbass region, eastern and northern European states have revised their assessments of Russia's policies and intentions. The approach used by Russia in Ukraine has rendered lessons learned from the Cold War deterrence only partially applicable due to the changing security situation in Europe. The emergence of the cyber realm, a smaller emphasis on nuclear deterrence, and the ideological conflict between Russia and the West, are among the key differences between the Cold War and the current security environment. Structured into two parts, the first part discusses conceptual aspects of deterrence, while the second discusses ten country case studies, which include both NATO and non-NATO countries. This allows for an in-depth analysis of the changing character of deterrence and its practical application by Russia's European neighbours. This volume will be of much interest to students of strategic studies, European politics, Russian foreign policy, security studies and international relations in general.
Author(s): Nora Vanaga, Toms Rostoks
Series: Contemporary Security Studies
Publisher: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group
Year: 2019
Language: English
Pages: 301
Tags: Politics & International Relations, Security Studies, Russia, Europe
Cover......Page 1
Half Title......Page 2
Title Page......Page 4
Copyright Page......Page 5
Table of
Contents......Page 6
List of
Tables......Page 8
Notes on
Contributors......Page 9
Introduction: The (un)expected return of deterrence to Europe......Page 12
Key questions addressed by the study......Page 15
Structure of the book and summary of key findings......Page 20
Bibliography......Page 26
Part I:
Conceptualizing deterrence......Page 28
Introduction......Page 30
The concept of deterrence......Page 31
Deterrence: adapting a Cold War concept to hybrid war conditions......Page 37
Bibliography......Page 44
Introduction......Page 47
Cold War conventional deterrence......Page 48
What to deter?......Page 49
NATO’s Wales Summit 2014 – response or reassurance?......Page 51
NATO Warsaw Summit 2016 – ‘back to the roots’......Page 54
NATO Brussels Summit 2018 – addressing the shortcomings......Page 57
Conclusions......Page 60
Bibliography......Page 61
The post-Cold War peace......Page 64
Twenty-first century NATO nuclear forces and policy......Page 67
Twenty-first century Russian nuclear forces and doctrine......Page 68
Contemporary nuclear deterrence......Page 69
The 2010 NATO Strategic Concept......Page 72
NATO and deterrence messaging since 2010......Page 75
To Warsaw and beyond......Page 76
Note......Page 78
Bibliography......Page 79
Introduction......Page 82
Military dimension......Page 83
Civilian dimension......Page 88
Informational dimension......Page 91
Psychological dimension......Page 92
Total defence as deterrence......Page 93
The return to total defence......Page 94
Conclusion......Page 95
Bibliography......Page 96
Part II:
Country case studies......Page 102
Introduction......Page 104
A benign new world......Page 105
The nature of the bear......Page 106
Thinking deterrence......Page 109
Words and deeds......Page 111
Key obstacles......Page 115
Conclusions......Page 116
Bibliography......Page 117
History matters: reasons for keeping Finland’s territorial defence system......Page 121
Only one to deter: Finland’s relations with Russia......Page 124
The future of Finnish deterrence: supplementing central deterrence by denial with ambiguous extended deterrence......Page 126
Improving readiness and resilience......Page 127
Challenges and obstacles in strengthening Finland’s central deterrence......Page 133
Conclusions......Page 134
Notes......Page 135
Bibliography......Page 136
Setting the context: Norway and Russia......Page 139
Representations of Russia after Crimea’s annexation......Page 142
Threat perceptions in Norway......Page 143
Norwegian deterrence......Page 145
Extended deterrence through NATO......Page 148
Bilateral defence cooperation......Page 150
Is Russia deterred in the North?......Page 151
Conclusions......Page 153
Bibliography......Page 154
Introduction......Page 157
Setting the context......Page 158
The image of the adversary......Page 159
Deterrence solution: a balance between central and extended deterrence......Page 161
Practical steps to put the deterrence policy in place......Page 164
Key obstacles Estonia faces in pursuing deterrence......Page 168
Conclusions......Page 170
Bibliography......Page 171
Introduction......Page 174
Setting the context......Page 175
The contradictious image of Russia......Page 178
Forming the deterrence posture......Page 181
Policies supporting Latvia’s deterrence strategy......Page 183
Constraints in Latvia’s deterrence strategy......Page 186
Conclusions......Page 187
Bibliography......Page 188
Before 2014: the ignored wake-up call......Page 191
The perception of a Russia’s threat in Lithuania......Page 192
From soft security issues to credible deterrence......Page 195
The practical developments in Lithuanian defence politics......Page 198
Challenges of credible deterrence......Page 203
Conclusions......Page 205
Bibliography......Page 206
Introduction......Page 210
Belarus’ path of dependence......Page 211
Image of Russia and the West......Page 215
Policies after Ukraine: attempts to decrease dependence......Page 217
Constraints on Belarus in pursuing its national deterrence efforts......Page 221
Conclusions......Page 223
Bibliography......Page 224
Introduction......Page 228
The regional security set-up......Page 229
Perception of Russia as a security factor......Page 231
The policies supporting deterrence......Page 233
The deterrence capabilities build-up......Page 236
Challenges for Poland’s deterrence strategy......Page 240
Conclusions......Page 242
Bibliography......Page 243
Introduction......Page 247
Setting the context: German defence policy prior to 2014 or defence doesn’t matter......Page 248
Russia: a threat, to be addressed by deterrence and dialogue......Page 251
Germany’s strong belief in collective defence and extended deterrence......Page 254
The painful return to collective defence and deterrence......Page 257
Germany and the difficult defence issues......Page 259
Conclusion......Page 260
Bibliography......Page 261
Introduction......Page 266
Setting the context......Page 267
The image of Russia......Page 269
Romania’s approach to deterrence......Page 272
Practical implementation of deterrence......Page 275
The challenges in pursuit of deterrence......Page 277
Conclusions......Page 280
Bibliography......Page 281
Conclusions......Page 284
Deterrence and its role in the post-2014European security environment......Page 285
Perceptions and relations with Russia......Page 287
Embracing deterrence in defence strategies......Page 289
Dialogue as a complementary element for a deterrence strategy......Page 291
National efforts in strengthening deterrence......Page 292
Regional cooperation and strategic partners......Page 294
Challenges in pursuing deterrence......Page 295
Index......Page 298
