Design for Decision

You and I (and everyone else) are imbedded in a complex of events which, for lack of a better word, I will call the real world. Sometimes we find the situation to our liking; at other times the real world becomes a rather unpleasant place. We try to improve our lot by taking various actions which we think will avoid pain or lead to pleasure. Occasionally we are faced with a choice of actions, and it is not at once obvious which action will lead to a real world that will be more congenial in the future. The process of selecting one action from a number of alterna­tive courses of action is what I shall mean by decision. This book does not deal with specific decisions. I do not propose to tell you what to drink or whom to marry. Instead I am going to discuss how to make decisions. At this point you might very well snort indignantly and de­mand to know why a college professor thinks he can tell you how to make decisions. Let me hastily add that all I shall try to do is to describe and explain a recently developed method for making decisions (not my invention at all but the work of other-and much cleverer-men) which has been called Sta­tistical Decision.