COVID-19: Systemic Risk and Resilience

Contents
1 Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives on Systemic Risk and Resilience in the Time of COVID-19
Abstract
1.1 Covid-19
1.2 Systemic Risk
1.3 Resilience
1.4 Contributions of This Book
Disclaimer:
Reference
2 Ten Strategies for Leadership During COVID-19: A Plan of Action for Decision Makers in Times of Critical Change
Abstract
2.1 Key Questions to Ask
2.2 Conclusion
3 Some Elements of Analysis of the Bibliography on Risk and Resilience on COVID-19
Abstract
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Brief Literature Review
3.3 Specific Investigations
3.4 Discussion and Conclusions
4 Real-time Anticipatory Response to COVID-19: A Novel Methodological Approach
Abstract
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Theoretical Context: Defining the Field of Organizational Resilience
4.3 Real-time Anticipatory Response to COVID-19
4.3.1 Managing Initial Obstacles and Uncertainties
4.3.2 Pacific Island Vulnerabilities
4.3.3 Developing a Multidisciplinary Approach Through Various Data Sources and Stakeholder Input
4.4 Modeling Regional Real-time Adaptive Response to COVID-19
4.4.1 Population Health Analysis
4.4.2 Organizational Resource Requirements
4.5 Modeling Results and Interpretation
4.6 Conclusion
Disclaimer:
References
5 Complexity, Interconnectedness and Resilience: Why a Paradigm Shift in Economics is Needed to Deal with Covid 19 and Future Shocks
Abstract
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Why a New Economic Paradigm is Needed
5.3 A Complex Systems View of the Covid‑19 Pandemic
5.4 Systems Thinking and Resilience Approaches
5.5 Conclusions
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References
6 Enhancing Current Practice from the Natural and Manmade Hazards Domain to Pandemic: Insights from the Italian Case
Abstract
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Methodological Aspects
6.3 Emergency Planning and Preparedness: Issues and Pitfalls in Current Practice
6.3.1 Development of Plans According to Scenario Planning and Its Limits
6.3.2 Appropriate Consideration of Systemic Impacts and Vulnerabilities
6.3.3 Appropriate Consideration of Spatial and Temporal Scales
6.3.4 Operationality
6.4 Italy: Gaps in Preparedness and Planning that Emerged in the Covid 19 Crisis
6.4.1 Existence of a Pandemic Plan
6.4.2 Limitations of Considered Scenarios
6.4.3 Issues in Multiscale Coordination and Lack of a Systemic Approach
6.4.4 Insufficient Consideration of Time Scale Issues
6.4.5 Lack of Operational Knowledge of Tools
6.5 Integrating the Pandemic in More Integrated Emergency Planning and Preparedness Process
6.6 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Disclaimer:
References
Consulted Documents and Legislation
7 Value-Based Optimization of Healthcare Resource Allocation for COVID-19 Hot Spots
Abstract
7.1 Introduction
7.2 An Optimization Model for Hospital Bed Allocation
7.3 Case Study
7.3.1 Data and Assumptions
7.3.2 Implementation
7.3.3 Optimization Results
7.4 Discussion
7.5 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Disclaimer:
References
8 Overview of Preventive Measures and Good Governance Policies to Mitigate the COVID-19 Outbreak Curve in Brunei
Abstract
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Methodology
8.2.1 Study Area
8.2.2 Data Collection
8.2.3 Flattening the Curve
8.3 Results and Discussion
8.3.1 The Outbreak of COVID-19 Cases in Brunei
8.3.2 Daily and Total Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Brunei
8.3.3 Timeline of Events and Actions Taken by the Brunei Government
8.3.4 Contract Tracing and Public Information Campaigns
8.3.5 International Travel Controls
8.3.6 Testing Policies
8.3.7 Closure of Schools and Academic Institutes
8.3.8 Cancellation of Public Events and Restriction of Public Gatherings
8.3.9 Review of Resilience Measures Adapted by Various Countries in Comparison to Brunei
8.3.9.1 Human Development Index Indicator Showing The Preparedness Towards the Control of the Pandemic Among Nations
8.3.9.2 Countries Highly Cited for Better Control of This Pandemic
8.3.9.3 Comparison Among the Nations Where Covid-19 Cases are Reported Within First 3 Weeks
8.3.9.4 Spread of COVID-19 Outbreak in Other Nations Where the First Case was Reported on Same Day as Brunei
8.3.9.5 Comparison of Spread of COVID-19 Outbreak in Nations Per Capita Cases
8.3.9.6 Resilience Measures Among the Nations Where the First Case was Reported a Week Before Brunei’s
8.3.9.7 Overall Perspective of an Outbreak in Brunei Compared to the Global Nations
8.3.9.8 Salient Resilience Features of Brunei Government and Mitigation, Measures to Suppress the Outbreak
8.4 Conclusions
Funding:
References
9 Precarious Aging: COVID-19 Risk, Resilience and Response
Abstract
9.1 Introduction
9.2 COVID-19: A ‘Gero-Pandemic’
9.3 A Risk, Resilience and Response Perspective
9.4 Risk, Vulnerability and Aging During a Pandemic
9.5 Risk, Resilience and Response Among Selected Vulnerable Older Groups
9.6 Risk, Resilience and Response of Older Adults in the Community
9.7 Ageism and Intergenerational Tensions as Barriers to Resilient Responses to a Gero-pandemic
9.8 The Technological and Human Interface as a Response to COVID-19
9.9 Conclusion
References
10 The Impact of “Flatten the Curve” on Interdependent Economic Sectors
Abstract
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Methods
10.3 Results and Discussion
10.4 Conclusions and Areas for Future Study
Disclaimer:
References
11 Repercussions of Monsoon in the Indian Sub-continent During COVID-19
Abstract
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Monsoon and COVID-19 Transmission: The Odds-On
11.3 Socio-economic Impacts of Monsoon-COVID-19 Synergy
11.4 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
12 Why Did Risk Communication Fail for the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How Can We Do Better?
Abstract
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Social Dilemmas and Risk Communication
12.3 Social Dilemmas, Incentive Structures, and the Novel Coronavirus: Aligning Intervention Needs with Effect Communication Narratives
12.4 A Social-Ecological Perspective
12.5 Social-Psychological Dimensions of Social Ecological Systems
12.6 Risk Communication Complexity in the Pandemic
Disclaimer:
References
13 Inclusive Communication to Influence Behaviour Change During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Examining Intersecting Vulnerabilities
Abstract
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Governing COVID-19 Risks Through Communication
13.3 Targeting Risk Communication to Achieve Behavioural Change
13.3.1 The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM)
13.3.2 The Need for Targeted Risk Communication
13.4 Intersecting Vulnerabilities and Information Behaviours
13.4.1 Channel Access and Preference
13.4.2 Threat Perceptions and Protective Action Perceptions
13.5 Barriers Within the Information to Behavioural Change Loop
13.5.1 Predecisional Processes
13.5.2 Situational Impediments and Facilitators
13.5.3 Perceived Control Over Outcomes
13.5.4 Stakeholder Perceptions
13.6 Conclusion and Recommendations
Acknowledgements
References
14 Between Resilience and Adaptation: A Historical Framework for Understanding Stability and Transformation of Societies to Shocks and Stress
Abstract
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Methodological Considerations
14.3 Earthquakes: Beirut and the Earthquake of 551 CE
14.4 Pandemics, 1: The Justinianic Plague
14.5 Pandemics, 2: The Black Death
14.6 Animal Epizootics
14.7 Climate, 1. Who Pays for the Survival of an Empire? The Byzantine ‘Great Famine’ (927–928 CE)
14.8 Climate, 2. Who Pays for the Survival of an Empire?: The Ottoman State and the Limits of Resilience
14.9 Climate, 3: Early 19th-Century Krakow and the Costs of Sustainability
14.10 Discussion
14.11 Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Disclaimer:
References
15 COVID and Climate: Exploring Categorical Resilience in the Built Environment
Abstract
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Resilience Planning Informs COVID Response
15.3 COVID Informs Future Resilience Planning
15.4 COVID and Climate Highlight Limitations of Current Resilience Thinking
15.5 Conclusions
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References
16 The COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons for Urban Resilience
Abstract
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Insights from the Literature
16.2.1 Economy
16.2.2 Environmental Management
16.2.3 Governance
16.2.4 Smart Cities
16.2.5 Social Issues
16.2.6 Transportation
16.2.7 Urban Design
16.3 Summary and Conclusions
References
17 Resilient Urban Housing Markets: Shocks Versus Fundamentals
Abstract
17.1 Introduction
17.2 The U.S. Housing Market in 2020: Resilience and Adaptation
17.2.1 Short-Run Aggregate Dynamics: Insights from Prices and Rents
17.2.2 Covid-19 Cases: Greater Frictions, Declining Rents, Resilient Prices
17.2.3 Evidence of Short-Run Suburbanization
17.2.4 Local Housing Markets and the May 2020 Urban Protests
17.3 Housing Markets in the Long Run: The Role of Shocks Versus Initial Conditions
17.3.1 Explaining Metropolitan Growth in the Long Run
17.3.2 The Resilience of the New York City Housing Market After September 11
17.3.3 Rebuilding San Francisco After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake
17.4 Conclusion
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References
18 Mutual Aid in the Time of COVID-19 and the Future of Hyper-Local Community Resilience
Abstract
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Origins of Mutual Aid
18.3 Mutual Aid Post-COVID-19
18.4 Technology
18.5 Will Mutual Aid Stay Mutual?
18.6 Conclusion
References
19 Understanding How Community Resilience Can Inform Community Development in the Era of COVID
Abstract
19.1 Introduction
19.2 Defining Community Resilience and Community Development
19.3 The Impacts of COVID-19 on Communities
19.4 Inclusive Recovery as a Path to More Robust Resilience
19.5 A Community Development Framework
19.6 Applying the Framework: How to Braid Community Development and Community Resilience in Practice
19.7 Conclusion and Recommendations
References
20 Strengthening Community Resilience to Reduce Barriers to Economic Participation During a Pandemic and a Climate Crisis
Abstract
20.1 Community Resilience in a Regional Economy
20.2 CD Field Pandemic Responses to Strengthen Individual and Household Resilience
20.3 Community Resilience at a Regional Scale
20.4 Charting an Equitable Recovery
20.5 Community Resilience Starts with Regional Thinking
Disclaimer:
References
21 Resilience for Whom? Insights from COVID-19 for Social Equity in Resilience
Abstract
21.1 Introduction
21.2 Contested Concepts of Resilience
21.3 Inequity in COVID-19 Pandemic
21.3.1 Exposure
21.3.2 Sensitivity
21.3.3 Response and Recovery
21.4 Potential of COVID
21.5 A Broadening Concept of Community Resilience
References
22 The Vaccine Supply Chain: A Call for Resilience Analytics to Support COVID-19 Vaccine Production and Distribution
Abstract
22.1 Introduction
22.2 Vaccine Supply Chains
22.2.1 Vaccine Supply Chains
22.2.2 Manufacturing
22.2.3 Cold Chain
22.2.4 Last Mile
22.2.5 Reverse Logistics and (Biohazard) Waste Management
22.2.6 Vaccine Supply Chains and Interconnected Networks
22.2.7 MMR and Smallpox Vaccine Case Studies
22.2.8 Vaccine Supply Chain Disruptions
22.3 Supply Chain Models and Resilience Analytics
22.3.1 Lack of Existing Academic Publications on Vaccine Supply Chain Resilience
22.3.2 Supply Chain Resilience Publications—Modeling Trends
22.3.3 COVID-19 Current Trends and Impacts on Supply Chain Resilience
22.4 COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Chain Resilience Needs and Challenges
22.5 Conclusions
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References
Index