Coronavirus News, Markets and AI: The COVID-19 Diaries

Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acknowledgements
Notes
About the Book
Notes
Introduction
'Unstructured data' and the huge quantities of information
'Structured data' versus 'unstructured data'
Significance of 'unstructured data'
What is 'unstructured data' analysis and how are we doing it?
The importance of 'multiple sources', 'local language news' and 'translation'
Coronavirus pandemic: The key global event for 2020
Overreaction and the coronavirus pandemic
How do we calculate the coronavirus sentiment?
Big data and AI (Artificial Intelligence) texts are the foundation for this book
EMAlpha sentiment technology
Crude oil price and its linkage with coronavirus sentiment
News sentiment on the president of the United States, Donald Trump
Why local news-based sentiment analysis matters
How base rate changes everything
High-Profile cases and the impact on coronavirus sentiment
The country-by-country sentiment on the coronavirus
COVID-19 has turned the world upside down
What are the factors that influence the pandemic news?
What do we see more in this coronavirus news?
How do we use the inferences drawn from 'unstructured data'?
Notes
Part I: The Method
1. How to Read This Book?
A few suggestions before you begin
A sample of our machine-aided observations
2. Reading Coronavirus News
Coronavirus: neither the first nor the last pandemic
What is sentiment analysis?
News sentiment versus real impact
The media coverage on the coronavirus and the impact on financial markets
The coronavirus pandemic crisis versus the global financial crisis of 2008
This book is a diary of market analysts watching sentiment on the coronavirus
How do we calculate the coronavirus sentiment?
Notes
3. Sentiment Analysis, Big Data and AI
Big data and AI (artificial intelligence) texts are the foundation for this book
The drivers of sentiment analysis
'Efficient market hypothesis' versus 'inefficiencies of markets'
More information = more data, more data = more analytics
How precise is big data inferences?
The path from unstructured data to actionable insights
Big data applications: they are everywhere
No turning back
4. Unstructured Data: How to Tame the Beast?
EMAlpha sentiment technology
The major challenges
What have we done?
Machine sentiment combined with human expertise
Part II: The Results
5. Ebbing in May: 'Are We Celebrating Too Early?'
29 May 2020: Oil news sentiment captures the firmness in crude prices
16 May 2020: Oil sentiment: conflicting signs from the IEA and aramco stock price
14 May 2020: Did world media underestimate the coronavirus crisis in Latin America?
14 May 2020: Is oil sentiment telling that the worst of the coronavirus is behind Us?
10 May 2020: Coronavirus threat: who can afford a lockdown and for how long?
1 May 2020: Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder, so does risk!
Notes
6. The Deadly April: 'Blame Game and Search for a Coronavirus Vaccine'
30 April 2020: Is the 'news sentiment impact' on markets back in business?
27 April 2020: Oil, again
Coronavirus country-by-country sentiment time series
Coronavirus aggregate global sentiment time series
News sentiment for topical keywords
Crude oil news sentiment
Aggregate india equity market sentiment
22 April 2020: Oil's historic fall: Precipitated by quickly worsened sentiment?
21 April 2020: Crude and coronavirus: Oil futures in negative for the first time in history and its key implications
20 April 2020: Markets and the coronavirus sentiment: The battle between optimism and pessimism
The details and inferences from the coronavirus and news sentiment
Coronavirus country-by-country sentiment time series
Coronavirus aggregate global sentiment time series
Daily coronavirus sentiment heat map for countries
News topic sentiment for keywords
Crude oil news sentiment
Aggregate india equity markets sentiment
17 April 2020: News sentiment on donald trump does not matter for markets? no, it does not - not really?
15 April 2020: Is trump losing the perception battle in media and why does this matter for markets?
9 April 2020: Is the fed making data on fundamentals irrelevant for markets?
8 April 2020: Why does local news-based sentiment analysis matter?
Does all this really matter for the markets?
6 April 2020: Coronavirus: Darkest before the dawn or no light at the end of the tunnel?
Coronavirus country-by-country sentiment time series
Daily coronavirus sentiment heat map for countries
News topic sentiment for keywords
Crude oil news sentiment
Aggregate india equity markets sentiment
Coronavirus numbers and statistics
1 April 2020: Coronavirus sentiment versus aggregate market sentiment and the base rate
Why does base rate matter?
Notes
7. Coronavirus Goes Global in March: 'Oops ... It Is Getting Serious'
30 March 2020: The dichotomy of a worse coronavirus situation and better markets
Coronavirus Country Sentiment
Global Coronavirus Sentiment
News Topic Sentiment
Oil Sentiment
Coronavirus Sentiment Map
Coronavirus Numbers and Statistics
25 March 2020: For global economy and EMs, better news sentiment on the United States helps
24 March 2020: Coronavirus news sentiment and Indian markets on 20 and 23 March
23 March 2020: Coronavirus, news Sentiment and investor behaviour
Coronavirus, Sentiment and Markets
Phase 1: 10 January to 9 February
Phase 2: 10 February to 2 March
The Importance of Local News
Phase 3: 3 March to Present
18 March 2020: Coronavirus sentiment: Deteriorating further and what did we learn in India?
15 March 2020: High-Profile cases and the impact on coronavirus sentiment
10 March 2020: EMAlpha news sentiment: The markets and coronavirus
7 March 2020: Coronavirus, human irrationality and Daniel Kahneman
4 March 2020: Coronavirus Sentiment Watch
2 March 2020: Coronavirus impact on markets: Is local sentiment more important?
Notes
8. The Build-Up in February : 'Come on, Do Not Worry Too Much'
27 February 2020: Coronavirus and markets
9 February 2020: The coronavirus and how sentiment impacts the market
Notes
Part III: The Samples
9. Politics, Conspiracy Theories and Religion
10 March: Iranian claims dealing with the coronavirus outbreak fell to agencies at the last minute
Machine-generated translation in english:
13 March: American National Security Advisor Accusing China of the pandemic
Machine-generated translation in english:
13 March: China accusing the United States Military of the Coronavirus
Machine-generated translation in english:
14 March: Did trump catch COVID-19 from Jair Bolsonaro
Machine-generated translation in english:
15 March: 'Coronavirus holidays' and debate on measures adopted by politicians
Machine-generated translation in english:
16 March: Muslims returning to Turkey from Pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia are taken into quarantine
16 March: Trump Administration Offered the German Pharmaceutical Company a 'Large Sum of Money' for exclusivity on vaccination against the coronavirus
Machine-generated translation in english:
19 March: New coronavirus infection is not produced in the laboratory
Machine-generated translation in english:
20 March: Trump accuses China of failing to share information on the epidemic
Machine-generated translation in english:
21 March: 700 cases linked to a mass religious gathering held at a mosque
22 March: Filipinos who attended a religious event in Malaysia linked to a Spike in COVID-19
25 March: Response of politicians to the coronavirus
26 March: Activists launch 'Digital Protest' to end United States Sanctions on Iran
27 March: Coronavirus - where it came from for humans
Machine-generated translation in english:
28 March: The Verbal War between Iran and the United States
29 March: Brazil and coronavirus cases in Italy, Germany and Spain
English translation:
4 April: A cluster of coronavirus cases can be traced back to a single mosque, and now 200 million muslims are being vilified
5 April: Canada's Health Minister's credulity plays right into China's hands
11 April: Churches in Singapore took good friday services online
16 April: Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson quotes WHO and said to support that there is no evidence that the coronavirus was released from a laboratory
Machine-generated translation in english:
16 April: Trump said his government is trying to determine if the coronavirus came from a laboratory
18 April: France said no evidence so far of a link between the new coronavirus and the P4 research laboratory in Wuhan
19 April: Heavy criticism of the work of the undersecretary of health in Mexico
Machine-generated translation in english:
20 April: Tension between France and China
Machine-generated translation in english:
21 April: Political crisis in Brazil and president Jair Bolsonaro
Machine-generated translation in english:
23 April: Washington not letting up on its 'Maximum Pressure' against Iran
24 April: States face legal hurdles in coronavirus lawsuits against China
26 April: Chinese government official slams Australia's push for an investigation into the coronavirus outbreak
27 April: Chinese diplomats seem to have tried to influence german officials
Machine-generated translation in english:
28 April: Iran pushes back against the United States' plan for snapback sanctions
1 May: United States' top intelligence agency, said that the COVID-19 virus is not artificially created or genetically modified
Machine-generated translation in english:
2 May: The United States has slapped new sanctions on Iran
10. The Coronavirus Pandemic's Economic Impact
11 March: Oil tumbled after a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia over production cuts
17 March: The United States passed a multibillion aid package to limit the economic damage from the pandemic
21 March: The norwegian central bank may cut rates again
25 March: Coronavirus pandemic's impact on the Brazilian economy
Machine-generated translation in english:
30 March: A decline in oil prices
Machine-generated translation in english:
30 March: One in five people in Britain fear an economic depression
31 March: According to the UNDP, income losses are expected to exceed US$220 billion in developing countries and nearly half of jobs lost in Africa
Machine-generated translation in english:
31 March: The impact of the coronavirus on small businesses
5 April: Malaysia approves cryptocurrency exchange
8 April: Coronavirus-induced recession in Germany
Machine-generated translation in english:
10 April: Economic rescue package of €500 billion for European Union member states
Machine-generated translation in english:
12 April: Rishi Sunak's former goldman sachs boss is to take on treasury post
13 April: Public companies are putting off release of financial statements
14 April: Britain Received 1.4 Million New Benefit Claims for Welfare Payments
15 April: The epidemic has disrupted key service sectors, tourism, hospitality and retail
Machine-generated translation in english:
20 April: A serious slowdown in the Australian property market
21 April: The United Kingdom firms furlough over a million workers due to the coronavirus
29 April: Companies in the information and communication sector reported a downturn and failing IT investments
Machine-generated translation in english:
11. Disease, Devastation and Hope
10 March: Information and data play a key role in understanding the problem and finding solutions
Machine-generated translation in english:
11 March: Researchers looking for volunteers willing to become infected with the coronavirus in exchange for payment
Machine-generated translation in english:
19 March: Coronavirus has spread to 158 countries
Machine-generated translation in english:
24 March: Therapies for new coronavirus infectious diseases
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26 March: Capacities in medical institutions are running out
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27 March: Can nivaquine or plasteril help coronavirus patients?
28 March: Private hospitals in have stopped accepting coronavirus patients
29 March: Coronavirus and SARS-COV, who triggered a pandemic in 2003/2004
Machine-generated translation in english:
2 April: Epidemic exposes health system problems in the United States, the number of deaths exceeds 4,000
3 April: India's poor live on promises in the wake of COVID-19 Crisis
6 April: Boris Johnson Tested Positive and had been Self-Isolating
9 April: In New York, more people died from the coronavirus than in the attack on the World Trade Centre on 11 September 2001
Machine-generated translation in english:
10 April: Boris Johnson left intensive care on thursday evening as he continues to recover from COVID-19
11 April: Modi's India is not prepared for the coronavirus
17 April: Brazil passes 30,000 cases of coronavirus this 16 April. In total, the country has 30,425 cases and 1,924 deaths
19 April: 99-Year-Old British war veteran raised more than US$29 million for the health service
23 April: Sweden stayed away from the Lockdown, and its capital stockholm may reach 'Herd Immunity' in weeks
25 April: Singapore's exemplary handling of the coronavirus epidemic
Machine-generated translation in english:
27 April: Healthy again, the British Prime Minister says it is too risky to relax the Lockdown yet
29 April: The depressing statistics on the coronavirus
Machine-generated translation in english:
30 April: World Health Organisation Lauded Sweden as a 'Model' for battling the coronavirus
2 May: How it was like to live in Sweden during the coronavirus crisis
12. Human Nature and the Impact on Normal Life
6 March: Australian paper prints blank pages to help tackle toilet paper shortage
9 March: Cancellation of football matches in Germany
15 March: Change in customer behaviour following the COVID-19
Machine-generated translation in english:
18 March: Britain's government set out emergency legislation on tuesday to tackle a growing coronavirus outbreak
20 March: Queen Elisabeth II released a statement urging people to follow expert advice
22 March: Traffic on roads and highways in the United States has fallen dramatically
23 March: Shinzo Abe said the Tokyo olympics may have to be postponed
1 April: Several countries in latin America and Europe are extending quarantine
Machine-generated translation in english:
2 April: Tempers are fraying in supermarkets in Paris
7 April: Florida Beaches remained packed with partying college students
8 April: Working hours to be reduced in the Arab States, Europe and Asia-Pacific
Machine-generated translation in english:
13 April: Debate on easing of coronavirus measures in Germany is gaining momentum
Machine-generated translation in english:
14 April: Europe is warily easing some restrictions
17 April: The United States Federal Government proposes to resume daily life
Machine-generated translation in english:
22 April: The huge increase in food retail sales led to a rise in Prices
Machine-generated translation in english:
25 April: Protesters demand wisconsin governor to Reopen state
28 April: Life in locked down Britain means fewer shopping trips but bigger bills
1 May: German chancellor merkel announced the latest easing of coronavirus measures
Machine-generated translation in english:
13. Bizarre, Funny and Fake News
6 March: Pangolin meat and the coronavirus cure
Machine-generated translation in english:
9 March: Facebook, Twitter and Google to deal with false information concerning the coronavirus outbreak
Machine-generated Translation in English:
14 March: 'Flashmobs' in Italy to thanks coronavirus warriors
Machine-generated translation in english:
17 March: Iran has temporarily freed 85,000 Prisoners to combat the coronavirus
18 March: Turkey detains 24 people accused of provocative social media posts
23 March: South Africa's plan to erect a fence along the border with Zimbabwe
1 April: India converting 20,000 railway carriages into isolation wards
3 April: Scammers take advantage of the moment of crisis
4 April: The government of Malaysia apologised after a campaign urging women to keep their husbands happy
6 April: Fake video claiming that COVID-19 test kits are 'Contaminated'
7 April: Turkish government spent more effort trying to curb information
9 April: Scammers selling coronavirus vaccine and fake COVID-19 test kits
Machine-generated translation in english:
12 April: Colombian homoeopath has become popular on social media for his statements against the coronavirus
Machine-generated translation in English:
15 April: European police foiled an attempt to cheat german health authorities out of millions of euros by selling them nonexistent face masks
18 April: Iran parades 'Coronavirus Radar' that can 'Detect Cases from 100 Yards' which looks similar to a fake 'Bomb detector' device
22 April: Indonesia punishes coronavirus quarantine violators by locking them in 'Haunted Houses'
24 April: Japan mayor under fire for 'Women Dawdle at Shops' remark
26 April: France drastically limits the sale of nicotine products
30 April: Misleading information has been spreading in india as the authorities attempt to control the coronavirus pandemic
Part IV: The Inferences
14. Country Sentiment for Coronavirus News
The primary results
The sentiment analysis for specific geographies
Australia
Brazil
Britain
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
England
Europe
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Iran
Italy
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Mexico
New Zealand
Norway
Philippines
Poland
Singapore
South Africa
Sweden
Turkey
United States of America
15. COVID-19 Has Turned the World Upside Down
The best countries in the world are not always the most prepared
Supply chain efficiency was not all that good
Globalisation is not a one-way street
Leadership is not just about power and money alone
There are stars other than those from sports and movies
Rhetoric does not always work in crunch time situations
Nature can strike back when it wants
The coronavirus pandemic has been a great equaliser
Growth is a treadmill that is running faster and faster
The choice between democracy versus the one-party rule is situational on which works better
Conventional thinking changes with new data points
Reverse migration from cities to villages
Crude oil prices are in the negative for the first time in history
Notes
16. What Is Seen More Often in Coronavirus News?
The Blame Game Between Countries and Even Non-Government Organisations
Brazil's Response to the Coronavirus Threat
Celebrity Connection with the Coronavirus
Conspiracy Theories
Employment Opportunities and the Impact of the Coronavirus on Unemployment
A Geopolitical and Business Shift in the Future
Globalisation Paused or Even Reversed
Hoarding of Essential Commodities such as Food Items
The Impact on Airlines, Travel, Tourism, Prepared Food and Hospitality industries
The Oil Demand Slump and Volatility in Crude Prices
Religion and the Role of Congregations in Spreading the Coronavirus
Sports Events Cancellation and How the Coronavirus May Change Some Sports Forever
Technology Can Help in Fighting the Coronavirus Pandemic
Toilet Paper
Traditional Medicines and the Efficacy of Treatment for the Coronavirus
Trump and His Handling of the Coronavirus Crisis
What is the Sentiment We See in This News?
Notes
17. How Do We Use Sentiment Analysis? A Case Study
Timing the virus: market timing possible with sentiment analysis?
Indian markets
18. Conclusion
Index