Most people would probably agree on what should be done to avert severe climate change: The world must reduce CO2 emissions as much and as quickly as possible. But we must also ask what will be done. Is it realistic to expect worldwide emissions to fall rapidly enough to prevent severe
climate change? And if we conclude it is not realistic, and so higher temperatures and rising sea levels are likely, what should we do? What actions should we take now to reduce the likely impact of climate change?
Whatever climate policies are adopted, there will be a great deal of uncertainty over what will happen as a result. In Climate Future, Robert Pindyck, an authority on the economics of climate change and global catastrophes, explains what we know and what we don't know about the extent of climate
change and its impact, why there is so much uncertainty, and what it means for climate policy. This book shows that given the economic and political realities, it is simply not realistic to expect emission reductions needed to avert substantial global warming. Pindyck argues that investments in
adaptation-developing new hybrid crops, discouraging building in flood-prone or wildfire-prone areas, building sea walls and dikes, and geoengineering-are needed to insure against catastrophic climate change events. We should invest now in adaptation, and Pindyck shows how that can be done.
Author(s): Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 248
City: Oxford
Cover
Climate Future: Averting and Adapting to Climate Change
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Preface
What This Book Is About
Acknowledgments
1: Introduction
1.1 Averting and Adapting: The Basic Argument
(1) GHG Emissions and Climate Change
(2) Climate Change is Bad
(3) We Need to Take Action
(4) Reducing Emissions Won’t Do the Job
(5) The “Climate Outcome” Is Highly Uncertain
(6) Invest in Adaptation
1.2 What Is Adaptation?
Private Adaptation
Public Adaptation
Public and Private Adaptation
Resilience
Amelioration vs. Adaptation
1.2.1 Concerns about Adaptation
1.2.2 Carbon Removal and Sequestration
1.3 What Comes Next
1.4 Further Readings
2: The Fundamental Problem
2.1 A Few Facts and Numbers
2.2 An Optimistic Scenario
A Very Simple Calculation
A Less Simple Calculation
2.3 The Bottom Line
2.4 Further Readings
3: What We Know and Don't Know about Climate Change
3.1 The Social Cost of Carbon
3.2 Climate Change Basics
3.3 What We Know (or Sort of Know)
3.3.1 What Drives CO2 Emissions?
Carbon Intensity
GDP Growth
Energy Intensity
Energy Efficiency
Carbon Intensity
Future CO2 Emissions
3.3.2 What Drives the Atmospheric CO2 Concentration?
3.4 What We Don't Know
3.4.1 Climate Sensitivity
How Much Uncertainty Is There?
Has the Uncertainty Been Reduced?
Why Is There Uncertainty Over Climate Sensitivity?
3.4.2 The Impact of Climate Change
Models and Damage Functions
3.4.3 A Catastrophic Outcome
3.5 Further Readings
4: The Role of Uncertainty in Climate Policy
4.1 Implications of Uncertainty
4.1.1 The Treatment of Uncertainty
Parameter Uncertainty: Monte Carlo Simulation
Other Approaches to Incorporating Uncertainty
4.1.2 How Does Uncertainty Affect Climate Policy?
4.1.3 The Value of Climate Insurance
The Damage (or Loss) Function
GDP Loss and Social Welfare
4.1.4 The Effects of Irreversibilities
Emissions Abatement: Hold Back or Accelerate?
4.2 Further Readings
4.3 Appendix to Chapter 4: Effects of Irreversibilities
The Example
Revising the Example
A Homework Exercise
5: Climate Policy and Climate Change: What Can We Expect?
5.1 CO2 Emission Reductions
5.1.1 The United States
5.1.2 The U.K. and Europe
The U.K.
Europe
5.1.3 China
Trade-Adjusted Emissions
5.1.4 The Global Picture
Can a Pandemic Save Us?
5.2 CO2, Methane, and Temperature Change
5.2.1 The Warming Effect of CO2 Emissions
5.2.2 Methane Emissions
5.2.3 The Warming Effect of Methane Emissions
5.3 Temperature Change Scenarios
5.3.1 Changes in Temperature
5.3.2 Implications of Uncertainty
5.4 Rising Sea Levels
5.5 Summary
5.6 Further Readings
5.7 Appendix to Chapter 5: Temperature Scenarios
CO2 Emissions
Methane
6: What to Do: Reducing Net Emissions
6.1 How to Reduce Emissions
6.1.1 A Carbon Price
6.1.2 Government Subsidies
6.1.3 Government Mandates
6.1.4 Cap-and-Trade
6.1.5 How Large a Carbon Tax?
6.1.6 An International Agreement
Targets Versus an SCC-Based Tax
A Temperature Target
6.1.7 Research & Development
6.2 Nuclear Power
6.3 Removing Carbon
6.3.1 Trees, Forests, and CO2
Deforestation
Deforestation and CO2
Reforestation and Afforestation
Are Trees the Solution?
6.3.2 Carbon Removal and Sequestration
Bioenergy
Air Capture and Exhaust Capture
6.3.3 The Bottom Line
6.4 Further Readings
7: What to Do: Adaptation
7.1 Adaptation in Agriculture
7.1.1 What Can the Data Tell Us?
7.1.2 An Historical Experiment
7.1.3 What To Expect?
7.2 Hurricanes, Storms, and Rising Sea Levels
7.2.1 Flooding and Its Impact
7.2.2 Physical Barriers to Flooding
7.2.3 Natural Barriers to Flooding
7.2.4 Private and Public/Private Adaptation
7.2.5 Flood Insurance
7.2.6 Flood Risk in Asia
7.2.7 What to Expect?
7.3 Solar Geoengineering
7.3.1 How It Would Work
7.3.2 How Much Would It Cost?
7.3.3 Problems with Solar Geoengineering
Ocean Acidification
7.3.4 What to Do?
7.4 Can Adaptation Solve Our Climate Problem?
7.5 Climate Future
Climate (and Other) Catastrophes
7.6 Further Readings
Bibliography
Index
