Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis

Part I Scientific Principles and the Scientific Method

1 Introduction 3
1.1 Introduction to Global Warming 3
1.2 Greenhouse Effect 3
1.3 Climate Sensitivity 5
1.4 Average Global Temperature from 1880 to 2009 6
1.5 Carbon Dioxide 6
1.6 Global Warming, Climate, and Weather 7
1.6.1 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979–2005 8
1.6.2 Impacts of Global Warming 8
1.7 Timescales, Positive Feedbacks, and Tipping Points 9
1.8 Energy and Climate Policy 11
1.8.1 Energy Choices 11
1.9 Forcings and Feedbacks 12
1.9.1 Earth’s Albedo 13
1.9.2 Irradiance 13
1.10 Energy Budget 13
1.11 Affected Weather 14
1.12 Hockey Stick Controversy 14

2 Scientific Principles 17
2.1 Introduction 18
2.2 Internet Searches 19
2.3 The Warming Earth: Heat and the Principles of Thermodynamics 19
2.3.1 The Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics 20
2.3.2 The First Law of Thermodynamics 20
2.3.3 The Second Law of Thermodynamics 21
2.3.4 The Third Law of Thermodynamics 21
2.4 Climate Scientists 22
2.4.1 Scientific Laws and Climate Scientists 23
2.5 Scientific Jargon 24
2.6 Communication Between Scientists and the Public 26
2.7 The Concept of Time 27
2.8 From Hothouse to Icehouse 30
2.9 Earth’s Energy Imbalance 30
2.10 An Introduction to Science 30
2.10.1 Reasons to Study Science 31
2.10.2 The Philosophy of Science 32
2.10.3 Early History of Science 33
2.10.4 Aristotle (384–322 BC ) 34
2.11 Early Scientists 34
2.11.1 Pliny the Elder (23 AD–79 AD) 35
2.11.2 Claudius Ptolemy (c. AD 90–c. AD 168) 35
2.11.3 Nicolaus Copernicus (1473–1543) 36
2.11.4 Galileo Galilei (1564–1642) 36
2.11.5 Francis Bacon (1561–1626) 37
2.11.6 Johannes Kepler and Tycho Brahe 37
2.11.7 Isaac Newton 38
2.12 Empiricism 38
2.13 Inductive Logic 38
2.14 Multiple Working Hypotheses 39
2.15 Deductive Logic 40
2.16 Models and Simulations 40
2.17 The Nature of Science 41
2.18 The Science of Nature 41
2.19 Chaos Theory 42
2.20 Scientific Notation 43

3 The Scientific Method and Its Use 47
3.1 The Scientific Method 48
3.2 A Linearized Approach to the Scientific Method 53
3.3 Data Collection – Experimentation, Measurement, Observation 55
3.4 Ideas, Persistence, Documentation, Testing, Reproducibility, Publication 55
3.5 Hypotheses 57
3.6 Theories 57
3.7 Newton’s Laws of Motion 58
3.8 The Peer-Review Process 58
3.9 Use of the Scientific Method 59
3.9.1 James Hutton and Uniformitarianism 59
3.9.2 Charles Darwin and the Origin of Species 60
3.9.3 James Watson and Francis Crick – The Structure of DNA 62
3.9.4 Harry Hess and Plate Tectonic Theory 63
3.9.5 Plate Tectonic Theory 64
3.9.6 Wallace Broecker and the First Use of the Term Global Warming 65
3.10 Use of the Scientific Method in Climate Change Science 66
3.10.1 Joseph Fourier and the Greenhouse Effect 67
3.10.2 John Tyndall and Thermal Radiation 67
3.10.3 Svante Arrhenius and Carbon Dioxide 68
3.10.4 T. C. Chamberlin and the Ice Ages 69
3.10.5 Guy Stewart Callendar and Rising Temperatures 69
3.10.6 Gilbert Plass and Doubling of Carbon Dioxide 70
3.10.7 Hans Suess and Carbon-14 in Carbon Dioxide 71
3.10.8 Roger Revelle and Ocean Chemistry 72
3.10.9 Charles David Keeling and CO2 73
3.10.10 Syukuro (“Suki”) Manabe and Climate Modeling 74
3.10.11 James Hansen and Temperature Analysis 75
3.10.12 William Ruddiman and Paleoclimate 75
3.10.13 Gavin Schmidt and GISS 76
3.10.14 Stefan Rahmstorf, Sea Level and Temperature Rise 76

Part II Overview Of Climate Change Science

4 Earth’s Energy Budget 81
4.1 Introduction 82
4.2 Weather and Climate 83
4.3 Solar and Heat Energy 83
4.4 Earth’s Radiation Laws 85
4.5 Earth’s Energy Imbalance 91

5 Climate Change Trends 97
5.1 Climate Change Trends 98
5.2 Rising Temperatures 99
5.2.1 Temperature Scales 100
5.2.2 Temperatures Shown by Graphs 100
5.2.3 Rising Land and Sea Temperatures 103
5.2.4 Tropospheric Warming and Stratospheric Cooling 103
5.3 Sources of Uncertainty with Temperature Data 104
5.4 Climate Construction from Instrumental Data 105
5.5 Measurement of Temperature 105
5.5.1 Global Temperature from Meteorological Stations 106
5.6 The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) Study 106
5.7 Land Temperatures from Boreholes 107
5.8 Rising Sea Temperatures 108
5.8.1 Relative Distribution of Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs) 109
5.8.2 Ocean Heat Content 110
5.9 Melting Ice 110
5.9.1 Permafrost, Methane, and Clathrates 113
5.9.2 Methane Clathrates 114
5.10 Rising Sea Level 115
5.11 Migration of Plants and Animals 116
5.12 Species Extinctions 116
5.13 Human Health Effects of Rising Temperatures 117
5.14 Attribution 118
5.15 Greenhouse Gases 119
5.16 Human Fingerprints on Global Warming 121
5.16.1 Earth’s Cooling Upper Atmosphere 121
5.16.2 Rising Tropopause 122
5.16.3 Less Heat Escaping to Space 122
5.16.4 Nights Warming Faster than Days 122
5.16.5 Winter Warming Faster than Summer 122
5.16.6 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in Coral 122
5.16.7 Shrinking Upper Atmosphere 123
5.16.8 Less Oxygen in the Atmosphere 123
5.16.9 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in the Atmosphere 123
5.16.10 More Heat Returning to Earth 123
5.16.11 Pattern of Ocean Warming 123
5.17 Components of the Climate Change Process 125
5.18 Other Effects of Global Warming 126
5.19 Forcings and Feedbacks in the Climate System 127
5.19.1 Forcings 127
5.19.2 Positive and Negative Forcing and Their Effects 128
5.19.3 Feedbacks 128
5.20 Climate Sensitivity 130

6 Earth’s Surface Temperature 135
6.1 Introduction 136
6.2 Tipping Points 138
6.3 Temperature Records 139
6.4 Data Reduction 140
6.5 Data Analysis 140
6.6 Climate Data Analysis Tools (CDAT) 140
6.7 Data Reporting 141
6.8 Average Land Temperatures 141
6.9 History of the Development of the Global Average Temperature 141
6.10 Current Analysis Method 142
6.11 Temperature Anomalies 144
6.12 History of Temperature Recordings 149
6.13 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) 150
6.14 Projections of Future Temperatures 153
6.15 The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), 2007 154

7 Climate Change Science as Earth Science 159
7.1 Introduction 160
7.2 Climate Science as Earth Science 160
7.3 The Faint Young Sun Paradox 161
7.4 The Gaia Hypothesis 162
7.5 Introduction to Life Science 163
7.6 Introduction to the Atmosphere 164
7.7 Open System Science 165
7.8 Uniformitarianism and Climate Change Science 166
7.9 Recent Climate Data and Future Projections 166
7.10 Components of the Climate Change System 167
7.11 Good Science, Bad Science, and Non-Science 167
7.12 Examples of Good Science 168
7.13 Examples of Bad Science 169
7.14 Examples of Non-Science 170
7.15 Ethics in Science 171
7.16 The Concept of Scale in Earth and Climate Change Science 172
7.17 Map Scales 173
7.18 Fractals 174
7.19 Graph Scales 175
7.20 Time Scales 175
7.21 Earth Scales 175
7.22 Planetary Scales 175
7.23 Cosmic Scales 175

Part III Earth’s Atmosphere

8 Introduction to Earth’s Atmosphere 179
8.1 Introduction 180
8.2 The Atmosphere 181
8.3 Composition of the Atmosphere 181
8.3.1 Carbon Dioxide 183
8.3.2 Methane (CH 4 188
8.3.3 Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) 188
8.3.4 Ozone (O 3 ) 188
8.3.5 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 189
8.3.6 Other Trace Gases 189
8.3.7 Aerosols 190
8.4 Lapse Rate 190
8.5 Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere 191
8.6 Atmospheric Circulation 194

9 Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and the Carbon Cycle 199
9.1 Introduction 200
9.2 Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) 200
9.2.1 The Keeling Curve 202
9.3 The Carbon Cycle 203
9.4 Carbon Dioxide and the Carbon Cycle 204
9.5 Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide 204
9.5.1 Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 207
9.5.2 Oxidation – Reduction of Carbon 207
9.5.3 Sinks of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 208
9.5.4 Carbon Cycle Disequilibrium 209
9.5.5 Restoring Carbon Cycle Equilibrium 209
9.6 Methane (CH 4 ) 210
9.6.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Methane 211
9.7 Nitrous Oxide 212
9.7.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide 212
9.7.2 Increases in Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Concentration 212
9.8 Halocarbons 213
9.8.1 Sources and Sinks of Halocarbons 213
9.8.2 Increases in Atmospheric Halocarbons Concentration 213
9.9 Ozone 213
9.10 Other Trace Gases 215
9.11 Atmospheric Residence Time of Greenhouse Gases 215

10 Earth’s Albedo, Radiative Forcing and Climate Change 217
10.1 Introduction 218
10.1.1 Earth’s Albedo 218
10.1.2 Radiative Forcing 220
10.1.3 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) 222
10.1.4 Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing 223
10.1.5 Radiative Forcing of Ozone 223
10.1.6 Aerosols 224
10.1.7 Direct Radiative Forcing 225
10.1.8 Indirect Radiative Forcing 226
10.1.9 Total Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing: Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 226
10.1.10 Observed Climate Variations 226
10.1.11 Clouds and Their Impacts on Climate Change 227
10.1.12 Orographic Rainfall 228

11 Atmospheric Circulation and Climate 231
11.1 Introduction 232
11.2 Atmospheric Circulation 232
11.3 Insolation 233
11.4 Air Flow Patterns 234
11.5 Climate Change Effects on Atmospheric Circulations 237
11.6 Extreme Weather Events 239
11.6.1 Washington, D.C. Metro Rainfall 240
11.6.2 Binghamton, N.Y. – Rainfall 240
11.6.3 Allentown, PA. – Rainfall 240
11.6.4 Harrisburg, PA – Rainfall 240
11.6.5 Cincinnati, Ohio – Rainfall 240
11.6.6 Dayton, Ohio – Rainfall 240
11.6.7 Colorado Springs, Colorado – Rainfall 241
11.6.8 Tucson, Arizona – Rainfall 241
11.7 Record Heat 241
11.7.1 Houston, Texas 241
11.7.2 Dallas, Texas 241
11.7.3 Phoenix, Arizona 241
11.7.4 Seattle, Washington 241
11.7.5 Corpus Christi, Texas 242
11.8 Record Cold 242
11.8.1 International Falls, Minnesota 242
11.9 Record River Flooding 242
11.10 Tropical Storm Lee’s Tornadoes 242
11.11 Other Meteorological Events 242

Part IV The World Ocean And Climate

12 The World Ocean 247
12.1 Introduction 248
12.2 The World Ocean 248
12.3 Ocean Salinity 249
12.4 Ocean Topography 250
12.5 The World Ocean and Carbon Dioxide 253
12.6 Ocean Acidification 254
12.7 Oceanic Circulation 255
12.7.1 Thermohaline Circulation 256

13 Ocean Heat Content and Rising Sea Level 261
13.1 Introduction 262
13.2 Global Warming and Sea Level Rise 262
13.3 Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic Sea Ice 263
13.4 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 265
13.5 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 266
13.6 Future Potential Sea Level Rise 266
13.7 Ocean Heat Content 268
13.8 El Niño – La Niña (or ENSO) 269

Part V Earth’s Cryosphere And Recent Climate History

14 Glaciers and the Latest Ice Age 277
14.1 Introduction 278
14.2 Greenland Ice Sheet 279
14.3 Antarctica 284
14.4 Mountain Glaciers 287
14.5 Ice Cores 291
14.6 Stable Isotope Analysis 292
14.7 Ice Cores and Proxies 293
14.7.1 Dating Ice Cores 293
14.7.2 Mountain Glacier Ice Cores 294
14.8 The “Ice Age” 296
14.8.1 History 296
14.8.2 Climate Forcing by Orbital Variations 296
14.8.3 Eccentricity 297
14.8.4 Obliquity 298
14.8.5 Precession 299
14.9 Milankovitch Cycles and Ice Ages 300
14.10 Solar Variations 302
14.11 Questions Not Explained by Milankovitch Cycles 305

15 Permafrost and Methane 307
15.1 Introduction 308
15.2 Distribution 308
15.3 Origin of Permafrost 310
15.4 Methane Chemistry 311
15.5 Future Projections for Permafrost and Methane 314
15.6 Methane Gun Hypothesis 315

Part VI Land And Its Climates

16 Continents and Mountain Ranges 321
16.1 Introduction 322
16.2 Continental Drift 323
16.3 Harry Hess and Sea-Floor Spreading 324
16.4 Plate Tectonics 326
16.4.1 Types of Plate Boundaries 327
16.5 Continental Mountain Ranges 331
16.6 Islands 336

17 Climate Classifications 339
17.1 An Introduction to Climate Classification 340
17.2 Air Masses 342
17.3 Modern Climate Classification 345
17.3.1 The Bergeron Climate Classification 345
17.4 The Köppen-Geiger Classification 346
17.4.1 Group A Climates 346
17.4.2 Group B Climates 347
17.4.3 Group C Climates 347
17.4.4 Group D Climates 348
17.4.5 Group E Climates 349
17.5 The Thornthwaite Climate Classification 350

Part VII Climate Models

18 Types of Models 355
18.1 Introduction 356
18.2 Climate Models 356
18.2.1 Simplifying the Climate System 357
18.2.2 Boundary Conditions 357
18.2.3 Climate Modeling Centers 360
18.3 Types of Climate Models 365
18.3.1 Box Models 365
18.3.2 Energy Balance Models 365
18.3.3 Radiative-Convective Models 368
18.3.4 Statistical-Dynamical Models 368
18.3.5 General Circulation Models 368
18.4 Confidence and Validation 369

Part VIII Climates of the Past (Paleoclimatology)

19 Ancient Climates and Proxies 375
19.1 Introduction 376
19.2 Historical Records 377
19.3 Ice Cores 378
19.4 Stable Isotope Analysis 378
19.5 Ice Cores and Proxies 378
19.6 Dating Ice Cores 378
19.7 Dendroclimatology 379
19.8 Ocean Sediments 379
19.9 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Biogenic Material 380
19.10 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Terrigenous Material 384
19.11 Terrestrial Sediments 384
19.12 Periglacial Features 385
19.13 Glacial Fluctuations 385
19.14 Lake-Level Fluctuations 385
19.14.1 Russia’s Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake E) 386
19.15 Pollen Analysis 389
19.16 Sedimentary Rocks 390

20 Climates of the Recent Past 393
20.1 Introduction 394
20.2 Holocene Climates 394
20.3 Younger Dryas Cooling 396
20.4 Mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum 397
20.5 Late Holocene Neoglaciation 398
20.6 Little Ice Age 398
20.7 Medieval Warm Period 398
20.8 Holocene Climate Forcing Mechanisms 399
20.9 Coupled Internally-Externally Driven Climate Change 400
20.10 Contemporary Climate Change 400

21 Pleistocene Glaciations 407
21.1 Glacials and Interglacials 409
21.2 Causes of Glacial Advances and Retreats 411
21.3 Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 411
21.4 Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) 412
21.5 The Cooling Begins 412
21.6 Formation of the Isthmus of Panama and the Freezing of the Arctic 413
21.7 Other Influences and Possible Causes of Ice Ages 415
21.8 Maximum Extent and Characteristics of Continental Glaciers 416
21.8.1 The North American Ice Line 418
21.8.2 Europe and Asia’s Continental Glaciation 419
21.8.3 Southern Hemisphere Glaciation 420

Part IX Future Climates And Mitigation

22 Projections of Future Climates 431
22.1 Introduction 432
22.2 Hotter – Global Warming 433
22.3 Flatter – The Digital Age 433
22.4 More Crowded – Population Increase 434
22.4.1 Population and Demographics 436
22.5 IPCC Projections of Future Climate Change 438
22.6 Politics and Global Warming 439
22.6.1 Politicians and Their Views 440
22.6.2 Ronald Reagan 441
22.6.3 Richard Nixon 441
22.6.4 Barak Obama 441

Part X Skeptics And Deniers Of Global Warming

23 Understanding Climate Change Denial 445
23.1 Introduction 446
23.2 Basis for the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change 446
23.3 Characteristics of Denial 449
23.3.1 Fake Experts 450
23.3.2 Cherry Picking 451
23.3.3 Logical Fallacies 452
23.3.4 Impossible Expectations 454
23.3.5 Conspiracy Theories 454
23.3.6 Denial Characteristics at a Psychological Level 456
23.4 Drivers of Climate Denial 457
23.4.1 Conservative Ideology 458
23.4.2 Conservative Think Tanks 458
23.4.3 Mainstream Media’s Balance-as-Bias 459
23.4.4 Government 460
23.4.5 Corporate Vested Interests 461
23.4.6 Internet 461
23.5 Responding to Climate Denial 462
23.5.1 Familiarity Backfire Effect 462
23.5.2 Overkill Backfire Effect 463
23.5.3 Worldview Backfire Effect 463
23.5.4 Alternative Explanation 464
23.5.5 Summary 464

Part XI Specific Declarations Against Climate Science And Climate Scientists

24 Rebuttals to Climate Myths 469
24.1 Introduction 470
24.2 Fake Experts 470
24.2.1 A Petition of Tens of Thousands of Non-experts 470
24.2.2 A Contrarian Take on Climate Sensitivity 471
24.3 Cherry Picking 472
24.3.1 Warming at Over Two Hiroshima Bombs per Second 472
24.3.2 Hockey Stick Versus Hockey Team 474
24.3.3 Sun and Climate Moving in Opposite Directions 475
24.3.4 Human Emissions Upsetting the Natural Balance 476
24.4 Logical Fallacies 476
24.4.1 What Does Past Climate Change Tell Us? 477
24.4.2 CO2 Lag – The Chicken and Egg Dilemma 478
24.4.3 What Were Scientists Predicting in the 1970s? 479
24.4.4 How a Trace Gas Has Such a Significant Effect 480
24.5 Impossible Expectations 480
24.5.1 What Lessons Do We Learn from Past Model Predictions? 480
24.5.2 Science Is Never Settled 481
24.5.3 Uncertainty Is Not Our Friend 482
24.6 Conspiracy Theories 483
24.6.1 Nine Climategate Investigations Across Two Countries 483
24.6.2 Confusing ‘Mike’s Trick’ with ‘Hide the Decline’ 484
24.6.3 Tracking Down Trenberth’s ‘Missing Heat’ 485

Appendices487

Abbreviations493

Glossary503

Index535