This book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display.
Author(s): Randolph H., Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2024
Language: English
Pages: 259
Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
About the Authors
Abbreviations
List of Figures
1: Setting the Stage
1.1 Overview of Chapters
1.2 The Role of Structured Analytic Techniques
2: Understanding How We Think: System 1 and System 2
2.1 System 1 as a Source of Systemic Errors
2.2 How We Get It Wrong: Biases, Heuristics, and Traps
2.3 How Structured Techniques Can Mitigate These Cognitive Pitfalls
2.4 Five Habits of the Master Thinker
3: Conceptualizing Your Topic
3.1 Five Characteristics of a Good Question
3.2 Evaluate Your Sourcing
Evaluating Tangible Evidence
Assessing Testimonial Evidence
3.3 Selecting Sources
4: Blackout in Berlin!
4.1 Blackout in the German Capital
4.2 The Investigation: What Happened?
4.3 Key Findings and the True Story
5: Terror in Stockholm
5.1 Palme’s Murder: Political Background
5.2 Sequence of Events and the Crime Scene
5.3 Profiling Alias “Operative Case Analysis”
5.4 Investigating Political Conspiracies and Motives
6: Conflict or Collaboration in the Arctic?
6.1 What Drivers Will Shape the Future of the Arctic?
6.2 New Approaches to Natural Resources
6.3 The Main Players
6.4 Indicators Generation and Validation
7: Optimizing the Impact of Your Product
7.1 Organizing Your Product
7.2 Determine the AIMS of Your Product
7.3 Use a Checklist to Get Started
7.4 Refining Your Draft
7.5 One More Look
8: Outlook
Appendix A: Selected Cognitive Biases, Misapplied Heuristics, and Intuitive Traps
Cognitive Biases
Confirmation Bias
Hindsight Bias
Mirror Imaging
Vividness Bias
Misapplied Heuristics
Affect Heuristic
Anchoring Effect
Availability Heuristic
Groupthink
Premature Closure
Satisficing
Intuitive Traps
Most Commonly Encountered Intuitive Traps
Additional Intuitive Traps
Appendix B. Five Families of Structured Analytic Techniques
Exploration Techniques: Energize Your Approach
Simple Brainstorming
When to Use It
Value Added
Word or Visual Storming
Paper Recording
Cluster Brainstorming: The Twelve Step Method
Circleboarding
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Starbursting
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Mind Maps
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Concept Maps
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Venn Analysis
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Diagnostic Techniques: Crack the Code
Key Assumptions Check
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Multiple Hypothesis Generation
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Diagnostic Reasoning
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Inconsistencies Finder™
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Deception Detection
When to Use It
Value Added
Deception Checklists
Avoiding Deception
Chronologies and Timelines
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Reframing Techniques: Consider the Alternatives
Outside-In Thinking
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Structured Analogies
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
High Impact/Low Probability Analysis
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
What If? Analysis
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Classic Quadrant Crunching™
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Premortem Analysis and Structured Self-Critique
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method: Premortem Analysis
The Method: Structured Self-Critique
Red Hat Analysis
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Foresight Techniques: Anticipate the Future
Key Uncertainties Finder™
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Key Drivers Generation™
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Multiple Scenarios Generation
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Indicators Generation and Validation
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Presenting Indicators
Indicators Evaluation
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Decision Support Techniques: Shape the Options
Opportunities Incubator™
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
SWOT Analysis
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Impact Matrix
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Decision Matrix
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Force Field Analysis
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Pros-Cons-Faults-and- Fixes
When to Use It
Value Added
The Method
Selecting the Right Structured Analytic Technique
Appendix C. Worldwide Threat Assessment, Cyber Threats
Glossary of Commonly Used Terms
Recommended Readings
Pherson Publications
Recommended Readings
Analytic Production and Presentation
