CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991 : A Documentary Collection

Cover Page
Preface - by Robert M. Gates, former Director of CIA
Introduction
A critical view of the analysis
A vigorous rejoinder
Recent retrospective conferences
Analysis during 1947-1991: A Multidisciplinary Review
The production of Intelligence Analysis
The document selection process
A closer look at the newly released materials
A large and comprehensive collection
The selection of sample documents for the volume
Declassified and Released DI and Intelligence Community Documents on the Soviet Union
Editors and Contributors to this Volume
Editors
Haines
Leggett
Contributors
Origin of CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991
Author's Comments: Donald Steury
1. ORE 22-48 - Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948
2. The Strategic Value to the USSR of the Conquest of Western Europe and the Near East (prior to 1950)
3. ORE 22-48 - Addendum
4. ORE 46-49 - Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1949
5. The Strength and Capabilities of Soviet Bloc Forces to Conduct Military Operations Against NATO
6. Intelligence of the Soviet Bloc
Scientific and Technical Intelligence
Economic Intelligence
Armed Forces Intelligence
Analyzing Soviet Politics and Foreign Policy
Author's Comments: Douglas Garthoff
7. Soviet Capabilities and Probably Courses of Action Through Mid-1959
Conclusions
Discussion
8. The 20th CPSU Congress in Retrospect: Its Principle Issues and Possible Effects on International Communism
Pertinent Background Factors
The Main Issues of the Congress
Internal Aspects
External Aspects
The Meaning of the Congress for International Communism
9. December 21, 1961 - Memorandum for the Director
1
2
3 - Internal Problems
4
5
6 - Bloc Politics
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14 - Foreign Policy
15
16
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18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
10. Basic Factors and Main Tendencies in Current Soviet Policy
11. Soviet Foreign Policies and the Outlook for Soviet-American Relations
12. Changing Soviet Perceptions - Synopsis
13. Impact of a Polish Pope on the USSR
14. Soviet Support for International Terrorism - Key Judgments
15. Soviet Society in the 1980s: Problems and Prospects
16. Gorbachev's Domestic Challenge: The Looming Problems
CIA's Analysis of Soviet Science and Technology
Author's Comments: Clarence Smith
17. Intelligence Memorandum No. 237 - Capabilities of the USSR in Air-to-Air Guided Missiles and Related Proximity Fuses
Part 1
Part 2
Appendix A
18. Future Soviet Earth Satellite Capabilities
19. Geophysical and Astrophysical Instrumentation of Soviet Sputniks I, II, and III
20. Soviet Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles
Foreword
The Problem
The Estimate
Estimated Missile Reliabilities
Estimated Reaction Times
21. Memorandum - The Soviet Reconnaissance Satellite Program
22. Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack
23. Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses
24. Soviet Military Research and Development
25.
26. Soviet Quest for Supercomputing Capabilities
27. The Krasnoyarsk Radar: Closing the Final Gap in Coverage for Balistic Missile Early Warning
28. The Soviet Weapons Industry: An Overview
29. US Stealth Programs and Technology: Soviet Exploitation of the Western Press
30. The Flat Twin ABM Radar: Not as capable as previously believed
Assessing Soviet Economic Performance
Author's Comments: James Noren
31. Long-Run Soviet Economic Growth
32. The New Lands Program in the USSR
33. Soviet Military Expenditures by Major Missions (1958-65)
34. Intelligence Report: Investment and Growth in the USSR
35. Soviet Economic and Technological Benefits from Detente
36. Soviet Grain Deficit
37. The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis
38. Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects
39. Organization and Management in the Soviet Economy: The Ceaseless Search for Panaceas
40. Outlook for the Siberia-to-Western Europe Natural Gas Pipeline
41. Gorbachev: Steering the USSR Into the 1990s
Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities
Author's Comments: Raymond Garthoff
42. The Soviet Strategic Military Posture, 1961-1967
43. Capabilities of the Soviet Theater Forces
44. Intelligence Memorandum: Soviet Defense Policy, 1962-1972
45. Summary of Conclusions
46. The Track Record in Strategic Estimating: An Evaluation of the Strategic National Intelligence Estimates, 1966-1975
47. Key Judgments
48. Intelligence Forecasts of Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces: An Evaluation of the Record
49. The Development of Soviet Military Power: Trends Since 1965 and Prospects for the 1980s