This book addresses the pertinent issues that will need to be considered by those interested in physical security problems of the future. Specifically, it examines how changes in the accessibility of technology – data, hardware, software – are likely to affect both threat and mitigation considerations for Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Explosive (CBRE) scenarios and how social science can inform us of the human aspects of each. The trend towards an ever more socio-technical society and infrastructures – encapsulated by concepts such as 'smart cities' – is drawn out as a key motivation for adopting more holistic risk approaches to such security problems, than is currently the case.
Author(s): Peter D.E. Biggins, Deeph Chana
Series: Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 242
City: Cham
Preface
Contents
Contributors
The Changing Landscape
1 A Brief History of Crises and Armed Conflicts
2 A Changing World Order
3 Coping with Complexity
4 The Multifaceted Threat Space
4.1 Threat Space Levels
4.2 Natural, Accidental and Deliberate (NAD) Events
4.3 Nuclear Proliferation
4.4 Pandemics
5 The Grey Zone
6 Multifaceted Threats and Society’s Response
7 The Landscape
References
Chemical Threats
1 Introduction
2 Chemical Warfare
2.1 A Long History
2.2 Chemical Warfare Agents (CWA) and Toxic Industrial Chemicals (TICs)
2.3 International Structures Combatting CWA Use
3 Chemical Terrorism
3.1 Non-State Actors
3.2 Non-State Actors: Discussion
4 State Actors
5 Impact of Chemical Warfare Attacks
5.1 Tiers of Impact
6 Impact Reduction
6.1 The Threat
6.2 Prevention
6.3 Preparedness
6.4 Response
6.5 Recovery
7 System of Systems
References
Biological Threats
1 Introduction
2 Natural, Accidental and Deliberate (NAD) Events
2.1 Deliberate
2.2 Accidental
2.3 Responding to Biological NAD Events
3 Pandemics During the 20th and 21st Centuries
3.1 Growing Population Impacts Transmission
4 Biological Preparedness and Technology
4.1 Future Bio-sensor Technology
4.2 Digital Approaches for Biological Preparedness
5 Preparedness
6 Biosecurity, International Control Mechanisms and Convergence
6.1 Convergence of the BTWC/CWC
7 Changing Landscape, Threat Space and the Grey Zone
7.1 Smart Cities
7.2 Information and Influence
8 Summary
References
Radiological and Nuclear
1 Introduction
1.1 Ionising Radiation
1.2 Safety, Security and Regulation
1.3 Uses and Concerns
2 Risk
2.1 Threat Assessments
2.2 Scenario Planning
2.3 Human Understanding
2.4 Building Relevant Scenarios
2.5 RN Transport Example
2.6 Scenario Management
3 The Knowledge Future
3.1 Making Expert Knowledge Available and Understandable
3.2 Gaps in Our Knowledge
References
Explosives and Explosive Effects
1 Global Overview
1.1 Deliberate Acts
1.2 Domestic Explosions
1.3 Industrial Activity and Explosive Storage
1.4 The Natural World
2 Explosives and Blast: Kinetic Effect
2.1 Energy Levels and Energy Distribution
2.2 Formation and Velocity of Fragments
2.3 Blast Waves
2.4 Change in Mechanical Impedance of Air in a Blast Wave
2.5 Reflected Waves
2.6 Comparing Explosives Scenarios: Scaled Distance and TNT Equivalence
2.7 Vapour Cloud Explosions
3 Human Injury
3.1 Non-penetrative and Acceleration Injuries
3.2 Penetrative Injuries
4 Vehicle Response
5 Building Response
5.1 Pressures and Impulses: Materials and Structures
5.2 Progressive Collapse
5.3 Reinforced Concrete
5.4 Steel Columns
5.5 Masonry Walls
5.6 Weaker Component and Glass Windows
6 Mitigation
7 Summary
References
Risk Assessment, Resilience and Adaptability for Future CBRNE Security
1 Introduction
2 Risk Related Concepts and Definitions
3 Trends and Developments
4 Complexity
5 Surprises
6 The Fukushima Disaster: Could Resilience Engineering Have Helped?
7 Learning from Accidents
8 The Cautionary Principle
9 Concluding Remarks
References
CBRN Terrorism
1 Introduction
2 The Terrorist Context
3 Missing Motives and Misdirection
4 What is the Threat?
4.1 Expert Opinion
5 Studying the Past
6 Specific Forms of Action Related to Terrorism
6.1 Assassinations
6.2 Malicious Contamination
6.3 Insider Attacks
7 Theoretical Perspectives
7.1 Capability
7.2 Desirability
7.3 Retaliation
8 Conclusions
References
Human Factors and Societal Aspects in Future CBRNE Incidents
1 Introduction
2 Perceptions of CBRNE
2.1 How Do People Behave?
2.2 Developing Trust and Communicating with the Public
2.3 The Trust Element
3 CBRNE in the Future Society
3.1 Technological Solutions to Societal Issues?
3.2 Reliance on Technology: A Double-Edged Sword
4 Organising a Responsible Preparedness
5 Conclusion
References
Risk in the Infrastructure of the Future: A Holistic View
1 Introduction
2 Siloed Risk Management
3 How the Concept of Resilience Facilitates More Holistic Approaches
4 How a Systematic Analysis of Interdependencies Addresses the Complexity Challenge
5 How Cyber-Security Draws Together Different Infrastructure Sectors
6 An Integrated Risk and Resilience Framework for Critical Infrastructure Protection
7 Conclusion
References
Disinformation in the Deployment and Mitigation of CBRNE Attacks in the Age of New Social Media (NSM)
1 New Social Media as an Impact Multiplier
2 Changing Face of Media: The Rise, Fall and Rise of “Walled Gardens”
3 Matryoshka Conspiracies?
4 Mitigation Strategies
References
Looking Forward—Towards a Comprehensive Approach
1 Introduction
2 Understanding Risks in a Multifaceted Threat Environment
3 Systemic and Emerging Risks
4 Use of Scenarios
5 Governance of Risks
6 A Risk Governance Framework
7 Trust in a Zero-Trust, Competitive World
8 In Conclusion: Towards a Comprehensive Approach
8.1 Uncertainty, Interconnectivity and Risk in CBRNE
8.2 The Big N, CBRNE Rhetoric and Technology Literacy
8.3 Outlook for the Future
References
