The Belarusian regime
is deepening dependence
on Russia and
institutionalising relations
with Russian-occupied
territories in Georgia and
Ukraine. There is an ongoing
militarisation of both the
Belarusian authorities and
the democratic forces.
Economic recession
endures, despite Russia’s
support and efforts to enter
new markets, due to
severed ties with the West
and Ukraine. Real wages are
tumbling. The combination
of budgetary deficit and
financial default is forcing
the Belarus government
resort to money issue and
tax increases.
The Lukashenka regime has
most likely exhausted
resources endeavouring to
increase trust among the
politically-neutral part of
society. The regime's policy
has led to a significant
demand for a forceful
struggle against the
government in the
protest part of
society.
Author(s): Pavel Slunkin, Artyom Shraibman, Philipp Bikanau, Henadz Korshunau, Kateryna Bornukova, Lev Lvovskiy
Publisher: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 31
City: Kiyv (Kiew)
INTRODUCTION.
WHAT IS THE BELARUS CHANGE TRACKER?
SUMMARY
FOREIGN POLICY
Military dimension
Partners in international isolation
Cabinet for the ”militant scenario”
DOMESTIC POLICY: MILITARISATION OF GOVERNMENT
AND OPPOSITION
Militarisation of government structures
Media still the focus of repressions
Mobilisation of pro-government assets
Disconnection and consolidation in opposition
Radicalisation of opposition
FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS
Breaking economic ties with the West: Sanctions in full force
Sanctioned goods being traded through loopholes
Belarusian government allowed technical default
Engagement with Russia slowly deepening
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC TRENDS
GDP continues to decline
Concealment of information and verbal interventions
Tax increase
Money issue
TRENDS IN PUBLIC OPINION
Social confrontation: The new plateau
Social sentiment: Has a ceiling been reached?
A paradigm shift in the methods of political struggle
5
6
7
7
88
10
10
10
11
11
12
13
13
14
15
16
17
17
18
18
19
21
21
21
25
Index of Contents
Belarus Change Tracker
4
6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
REGIME AND SOCIETY RELATIONS IN WARTIME
Militarisation of repression
Persecution of family members
Pacification and military control of the professional sphere
De-Belarusization
and “wars of memory”
Civil society “under occupation”
27
27
27
28
28
29
