Annual Report on China’s Petroleum, Gas and New Energy Industry (2021)

Editorial Committee
Research and Innovation Company Profile
Preface
Contents
Part I Macro Trends
Prospects for China’s Economic Development During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period
1 The Economic Development During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period Laid a Good Foundation
2 During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period, We Are Faced with a Complex New Situation, with Opportunities and Challenges Coexisting
2.1 China’s Economic Development Momentum is Still Strong
2.2 Risks and Challenges
3 Analysis on Economic Development Trend During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period
3.1 The Economy Continues to Maintain Moderate Growth
3.2 The Household Registration and Population Policies Are Gradually Relaxed, Driving a New Round of Agglomeration Effect and Urbanization Upgrading
3.3 The Application of Digital Technology Comprehensively Promotes the Upgrading of Industrial Technology and New Infrastructure
3.4 The Policies of Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutrality Have Been Gradually Implemented, and Energy Transformation Has Promoted New Economic Growth Drivers
4 Policy Recommendations on Promoting the Benign Interaction of Economic Dual Circulation and Maintaining the Healthy and Stable Development of Economy
4.1 Shifting from Investment-Oriented Fiscal Policy to Security-Oriented Fiscal Policy, Focusing Efforts on Elderly Care and Protection of Disadvantaged Groups
4.2 The Macro-economic Regulation and Control Will Return to Neutral Monetary Policy to Promote Asset Prices to a Reasonable Space and Reduce Financial Risks
4.3 The Focus of Industrial Policy Will Be Shifted to Promoting Industrial Technology Upgrading, and the Focus of Policy Tools Will Be Shifted from Subsidy to Tax Reduction
4.4 Taking Comprehensive Measures to Reverse the Downward Trend of Population Growth and Optimize the Age Structure of the Population
4.5 Focusing on Carbon–neutral Industry to Promote Energy Transformation and Ecological Civilization Construction Under the Prospect of Carbon Neutrality
4.6 Continuing to Improve the Construction of Infrastructure Networks Such as Transportation, Telecommunications and Energy, and Effectively Reduce Economic Costs
4.7 Improving the Scientific and Technological Innovation Mechanism and Promote the Research and Development Investment of Basic Research, Industrial Technology and Civil-Military Integration Technologies
4.8 Continuing to Promote Reform and Opening up, Reduce Market Access Restrictions, and Build a Fair and Orderly Market Competition Atmosphere
5 Summary
References
China’s Energy Transition with the Scenario of Carbon Neutrality, Outlook by 2060
1 Introduction
2 Foundation and Path Analysis of Realizing Carbon Neutrality
2.1 Present Situation of China’s Energy Structure and Difficulties in Realizing Carbon Neutrality
2.2 Achieving Emission Reduction Through Energy Saving is the Most Economical and Direct Way
2.3 Developing Low-Carbon and Non-carbon Energy and Reducing the Proportion of Carbon-Intensive Fossil Fuel Energy to Reduce the Pressure for Achieving Carbon Neutrality
2.4 Carbon-Based Energy Recycling is Essential for Carbon Neutrality
2.5 Ecological Carbon Fixation
3 Path Selection for Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutrality
3.1 Model and Scenario Design
3.2 The Combination of Different Hydrogen Energy
3.3 Scenario of Preparing Methanol Based on Carbon Dioxide Emitted from Carbon-Based Fuels and Fuel Substitution
3.4 Energy Conversion: Substitution of Methanol and Hydrogen Energy for Coal, Fuel Oil and Electric Energy
3.5 Development of Primary Energy Power and Substitution for Fossil Fuel Power
3.6 Trade-Off of Clean Electricity & Natural Gas for Coal in End-Use Energy Consumption
3.7 Energy Saving Potential of Various Industries
4 Recommended Routes: High Renewable Energy, High Energy Efficiency, End-Use Coal Substitution and Green Methanol
5 Policy Recommendations
5.1 Promoting Energy Transition and Developing Carbon Neutral Technology and Industrial System
5.2 Increasing the Proportion of Non-carbon Energy and Carbon Neutral Energy
5.3 Comprehensively Promoting Ecological Restoration and Improvement
References
Economic Growth and Energy Consumption: Four-Dimensional Comparison of Aggregate, Elasticity, Intensity and Structure Among Economies
1 Introduction
2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption of Developed Economies
2.1 Economic Growth and Total Energy Consumption
2.2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Elasticity
2.3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Intensity
2.4 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Structure
3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption of Developing Economies
3.1 Economic Growth and Total Energy Consumption
3.2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Elasticity
3.3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Intensity
3.4 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Structure
4 China’s Economic Growth and Energy Consumption
4.1 Economic Growth and Total Energy Consumption
4.2 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Elasticity
4.3 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Intensity
4.4 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Structure
5 Carbon Peak, Carbon Neutrality Commitment and Future China’s Energy Consumption
6 Conclusion and Discussion
References
Part II Petroleum
In-Depth Analysis on International Oil Market in Post-pandemic Era
1 Characteristics of Global Oil Market in 2020
1.1 Oil Prices Have Plummeted and Fallen to an Unprecedented Negative Price, and the Benchmark Oil Price Spreads Fluctuated Drastically
1.2 Demand Side: In 2020, Global Oil Demand Showed the Largest Decline in History
1.3 Supply Side: In 2020, OPEC+ Adopted an Unprecedented Scale of Production Reduction
1.4 Inventory Side: In 2020, Both Global Crude Oil Inventories and Floating Inventories Reached the Highest Level in History
1.5 Refining: The Global Refining Has Suffered Unprecedented Heavy Losses
2 Prospects in 2021: Analysis on International Oil Market in Post-pandemic Era
2.1 Pandemic Situation: The Turning Point Has Appeared, and the Situation Is Generally Good, but It Has Been Repeated
2.2 Macro-Level: The Global Economy Has Achieved Recovery Growth, and Large-Scale QE (Quantitative Easing) Policies Has Pushed Up Asset Prices
2.3 Demand Side: Global Oil Demand Has Gradually Recovered, but It Is Difficult to Fully Reach Pre-pandemic Levels
2.4 Supply Side: OPEC Maintained a Small Increase in Production, and Global Supply Growth Is Generally Limited
2.5 Inventory: Destocking Accelerated Throughout the year, and Global Inventory Gradually Returns to Normal Levels
2.6 Refining: The Global Refining is Gradually Recovering but Hard to Reach the Pre-pandemic Normality
2.7 Geopolitics: Geopolitics Will Still Be Turbulent and the Recovery of Iranian Crude May Come Back Later Than Expected
3 Prospect on Medium and Long-Term Oil Market
3.1 Medium and Long-Term Global Economic Growth Faces Some Challenges
3.2 Medium and Long-Term World Oil Demand Has Entered a Low Growth Stage
3.3 Medium and Long-Term World Oil Supply is Facing Great Uncertainty
3.4 Medium and Long-Term Oil Prices May Return to the Rebalancing Range
3.5 The New Round of Reshuffle of Medium and Long-Term Oil Companies Will Continue to Intensify, and Energy Transformation Will Accelerate
References
Analysis and Prospect on Global Oil Supply Under the Production Reduction of OPEC+ 
1 Review of Global Oil Supply in 2020
1.1 OPEC+ Reached the Largest Production Reduction Agreement in History
1.2 Political Upheaval Has Led to a Decline in Production in Countries with Exemption for Production Reduction
1.3 American Shale Oil Producers Have Been Greatly Affected
1.4 Non-OPEC Oil Producers Responded to the Impact of Low Oil Prices by Production Reduction
2 Prospect on Global Oil Supply in 2021
2.1 OPEC+ is Expected to Relax the Production Reduction Quota by Stages
2.2 The Production Prospects of Countries With Reduced Production Exemptions Are Full of Variables
2.3 The Shale Oil Production of the Us is Expected to Recover
2.4 Oil Producers Such as Brazil and Canada have Released Growth Potential
3 Medium and Long-Term Prediction of Global Oil Supply
3.1 The Production Of Medium Crude Oil Will Increase Rapidly, and the Price Difference Between Light and Heavy Crude Oil will Remain Narrow
3.2 Oil Producers have Great Growth Potential and the World will Enter an Era of Oversupply
References
Review and Medium- and Long-Term Prospect of Global Oil Demand
1 Global Oil Demand in 2020 Hit the Largest Decline in History
1.1 The COVID-19 Caused a Serious Recession in the Global Economy
1.2 The Pandemic Caused the Biggest Drop in Global Oil Demand in History
1.3 China’s Oil Demand Has Increased Year on Year, and Other Countries Have Fallen Sharply
1.4 The Demand for Refined Petroleum Products Continued the Trend of Strong Diesel Consumption and Weak Gasoline Consumption, and Jet Fuel Was the Most Affected
2 Global Oil Demand Recovered in 2021, But It Was Difficult to Return to the Pre-pandemic Level
2.1 Global Macro Economy Shows Recovery Growth
2.2 Global Oil Demand Bottoms Out, Creating the Largest Increase
2.3 Demand of Major Economies Has Ushered in a Sharp Rebound
2.4 Demand for Gasoline and Diesel Has Returned to Normal, and Jet Fuel Is Still Under Pressure
3 Medium and Long-Term Trend of Global Oil Demand
4 Conclusion
References
Development Status and Prospect of World Oil Refining
1 Global Refining was Hit Hard in 2020, and the Refining Capacity Declined for the First Time In 30 Years
1.1 Due to the COVID-19 the Commissioning of Some New Projects was Delayed and Many Refineries Around the World were Forced to Be Closed
1.2 Some New Projects Were Postponed to Production, and the New Capacity was Lower than Expected
1.3 Global Refineries Set Off an Upsurge of Shutdown Under the COVID-19
1.4 Closure of Refineries in Asia-Pacific Region
1.5 Closure of Refineries in Europe
1.6 Closure of Refineries in the US
2 The Crude Oil Processing Capacity of Global Refineries Reached the Lowest Level in Ten Years
3 The processing Income of Major oil Refining Centers in the World has Reached a Record Low
3.1 The COVID-19 has Swept the World, and Oil Demand has Been Hit Hard
3.2 Freight has Soared, Squeezing the Processing Income of Refinery
4 The Crack of Major Oil Products Fell to a Historical Low, and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Suddenly Emerged
5 The Global Refining will Gradually Bottom Out in the “Post-Pandemic Era”
5.1 Global Refining Capacity is Growing Rapidly
5.2 The Refining will Gradually Recover in the Post-pandemic Era, but it is Difficult to Restore the Refining Margins to the Pre-pandemic Level
5.3 Medium and Long-Term Prospect of Refining
References
Analysis on the New Pattern of Global Crude Oil Trade
1 Situation of Global Crude Oil Trade in 2020
1.1 In 2020, the Total Volume of Global Crude Oil Trade Declined, and the Trade Center Continued to Move Eastward
1.2 China’s Crude Oil Imports Hit a New High, with Diversified Import Entities and Sources
1.3 The Largest Production Reduction in History Has Led to a Decline in the Share of Crude Oil Exports in the Middle East
1.4 Under the Pandemic, US Crude Oil Exports Continued to Grow
2 Outlook of Global Crude Oil Trade in 2021 and Medium and Long Term
2.1 The Pandemic Has Eased and Crude Oil Trade is Expected to Regain Growth
2.2 The Middle East Remains the World’s Largest Crude Oil Export Region
2.3 American Crude Oil Export Share Will Still Increase
2.4 Asia-Pacific Remains the Focus of Global Crude Oil Trade
2.5 The Uncertainty of Global Crude Oil Trade Has Increased, and It Is Under Pressure in the Medium and Long Term
References
Part III Natural Gas
Production and Consumption of Natural Gas in China and Its Prospects
1 Present Situation of China’s Natural Gas Market Demand
1.1 China’s Natural Gas Consumption has Grown Rapidly, and the Energy Consumption Ratio Achieved Sustained Year-Over-Year Growth Once Again
1.2 The Growth Rate of Major Gas Industries Slowed Down to Varying Degrees Compared with the Previous Year, and that of Industrial and Power Generation Gas was Relatively Fast
1.3 The Growth Rate of Natural Gas Consumption in Various Regions has Dropped Significantly Compared with the Previous Year
2 Present Situation of Natural Gas Supply in China
2.1 China’s Natural Gas Production has Grown Rapidly
2.2 The Growth Rate of Natural Gas Imports Dropped Significantly from the Previous Year, and the Degree of Dependence on Foreign Imports Decreased Slightly Year-on-Year
2.3 The Supply and Demand of Natural Gas Market is Generally Loose
3 Prospect on Natural Gas Supply and Demand in China
3.1 In 2021, China’s Demand Will Grow Steadily and the Growth Rate Will Pick Up
3.2 In 2021, China’s Natural Gas Production Grew Steadily, the Growth Rate of Imports Rebounded, and the Supply and Demand of Natural Gas Continued to be Loose
3.3 During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s Natural Gas Will Continue to Grow Rapidly, but the Growth Rate Will Slow Down
References
Progress and Prospect on Market-Oriented Reform of Natural Gas Industry in China
1 Background of Market-Oriented Reform of Natural Gas Industry
1.1 Deepening the Understanding of the Role of Market Force is the Basis for Natural Gas Industry Reform
1.2 The Market-Oriented Reform of Natural Gas Industry Is an Integral Part of China's Economic Reform
1.3 The Market-Oriented Reform of Natural Gas Industry Is a Necessary Move to Solve Practical Problems in the Energy Sector
2 Progress in Market-Oriented Reform of Natural Gas Industry
2.1 The Reform of Upstream Exploration and Production Has Been Limited
2.2 Natural Gas Import Has Partly Opened
2.3 A Breakthrough Has Been Made In Pipeline Grid Reform
2.4 The Reform of the Downstream Distribution Has Been Slow
2.5 The Reform of Natural Gas Pricing Forges Ahead into a Mixed State
2.6 The Regulatory Supervision of the Natural Gas Industry Has Measured Improvement
3 Prospect on Marketization Reform of Natural Gas Industry
3.1 Further Creating Conditions for the Formation of Competition in Natural Gas Supplies
3.2 Establishing an Interconnected Pipeline Network That Opens Fairly to All Users
3.3 Promoting the Formation of Fair Competition in Natural Gas Distribution and Sales
3.4 Deepening Price Liberalization Reform in Line with Market Competition Status
3.5 Strengthening the Supervision on Monopoly and Promoting Fair Market Competition
4 Conclusions
References
Positioning and Prospect of Natural Gas Power Generation in Energy Transformation
1 Development Status of Natural Gas Power Generation in China
1.1 The Installed Capacity of Gas Power Generation Has Steadily Increased, Accounting for a Relatively Low Proportion in China’s Power Supply Structure
1.2 The Geographical Distribution of Installed Capacity of Gas Power Generation Is Uneven, Mainly Concentrated in the Bohai Rim Region and the Southeast Coast
1.3 There Are Many Gas Power Generation Investment Entities and Most of Them Are State-Owned Enterprises
2 Positioning of Natural Gas Power Generation in China’s Energy Transformation
2.1 As the Best Flexible Power Supply, the Development of Renewable Energy in High Proportion Should Be Supported
2.2 As a Clean and Low-Carbon Thermal Power Source, It Helps Air Pollution Prevention and Low-Carbon Development
2.3 As a Major Consumer of Natural Gas, We Should Promote the Development of China’s Natural Gas Industry and Optimize the Energy Structure
3 Acceleration of the Favorable Conditions for the Development of China’s Gas Power Generation
3.1 Adequate Global Resources and Flexible Trade Methods
3.2 The Procurement Cost of Newly Imported Natural Gas Is Relatively Low
3.3 The Basic Support Capacity of the Natural Gas Production, Supply, Storage and Sales System Has Been Enhanced
3.4 The Localization of Gas Turbines Is Beginning to Dawn
4 Prospect for Medium and Long-Term Natural Gas Power Generation in China
5 Suggestions on Promoting the Development of China’s Gas Power Generation Industry
5.1 Unifying the Understanding: Defining the Position of Actively Developing Gas Power Generation in Medium and Long-Term Energy and Power Planning
5.2 Establishing a Market Mechanism with Flexible Respond, and Clean and Low-Carbon Power Value
5.3 Establishing Industrial Upstream and Downstream Cooperation Mechanism to Promote the Industry Development
5.4 Promoting the Direct Supply of Natural Gas of Large Gas-Fired Power Plants
5.5 Intensifying Scientific and Technological Innovation and Improve the Localization Level of Gas Turbines
5.6 Reducing the Price of Gas in Many Ways
5.7 Improving Peak Shaving and Emergency Response Capabilities of Natural Gas
References
Part IV New Energy
Promotion of China’s Low-Carbon Transformation with Carbon Price Mechanism
1 Global Carbon Trading Market and Main Trading Mechanism
1.1 Overall Situation of Global Carbon Market
1.2 Major Global Carbon Markets
1.3 China’s Carbon Market
1.4 Carbon Trading Mechanism
2 Participation of Major Oil Companies in Carbon Trading
2.1 Carbon Emission Reduction Targets of International Oil Companies
2.2 Energy Transformation Strategies of International Oil Companies
2.3 Practice of International Oil Companies Participating in Carbon Trading
3 Thoughts and Suggestions
References
Offshore Wind Power: An Important Opportunity for Traditional Oil and Gas Industry to Realize Low-Carbon Transformation
1 Traditional Oil and Gas Enterprises Accelerate the Layout of New Energy Industries and Help Achieve the Goal of “Carbon Neutrality”
2 Due to the High Degree of Business Fit, Offshore Wind Power Has Become an Important Field for Oil and Gas Companies to Explore New Energy Business
2.1 Overview of the Development of Offshore Wind Power Industry
2.2 Concrete Practice of Oil and Gas Enterprises Entering Offshore Wind Power Industry
References
Development Trend and Prospect of Hydrogen Energy Industry in China
1 Development Status of Hydrogen Energy Industry in China
1.1 Green Energy Development Is Promoted Globally, and the Hydrogen Energy Market Has Broad Prospects
1.2 The Improvement of the Policy and Standard System Drives the Rapid Development of the Industry
1.3 Breakthroughs Have Been Made in Technological Independent Innovation, and the Localization Is Accelerating
1.4 Infrastructure Construction Is Accelerated and the Diversified Application of Terminals Is Promoted
1.5 Energy Giants Continue to Promote the Layout and Strengthen the Industrial Competitive Advantage
2 Main Problems and Related Suggestions on Developing Hydrogen Energy in China
2.1 The Problem of Industrial Homogenization Is More Prominent, and It Is Necessary to Keep Cold Thinking in the Booming of Hydrogen Energy
2.2 The Core Technology Level Still Needs to Be Improved, and It Is Urgent to Speed up the Cost Reduction of the Industrial Chain
2.3 The Demonstration Application Scenario Still Needs to Be Expanded, and It Is Urgent to Explore Diversified Business Models
2.4 The Hydrogen Energy Supply System Still Needs to Be Improved, and It Is Urgent to Speed up the Loosening of Policies
3 Some Research and Judgment on the Development Prospect of Hydrogen Energy Industry During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period
3.1 Hydrogen Energy Industry Ushers in the Critical Point of Market Development
3.2 Leading Enterprises of Hydrogen Energy Reshape the Future Industrial Pattern
3.3 The Development Scale of Hydrogen Energy Industry Has Exceeded the Trillion Level
References
Development Prospect of Sustainable Aviation Fuel
1 Background of Aviation Emission Reduction
1.1 China’s Aviation Industry is Growing Rapidly
1.2 Global Aviation Emission Reduction Commitment
2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
2.1 Global Production of Renewable Fuels and SAF
2.2 Global Application and Consumption Trend of SAF
2.3 Sustainability Standard of SAF
3 The Driving Force of Global SAF Development
3.1 SAF Deployment Instructions
3.2 Incentive Policy for SAF Production
3.3 Market Mechanism of Emission Reduction
3.4 Consumer Demand Roadmap
4 Present Situation of SAF Industry in China
5 Opportunities and Key Players of SAF Industry in China
5.1 China’s Aviation and Environmental Policy Background
5.2 Participation in the Private Sector
5.3 Participation of Non-profit Organizations and Social Groups
6 Opportunities and Challenges of SAF Industry Development in China
References