Strategic rivalries are contests between states that view one another as threatening competitors and treat each other as enemies. A disproportionate amount of interstate conflict is generated by a relatively small number of these pairs of states engaged in rivalries that can persist for years. Thus, to understand interstate peace and conflict, it is useful to know how rivalries work in general and more specifically. In the past two decades, a strenuous effort has been mounted to introduce the concept of rivalry and demonstrate its utility in unraveling conflict situations. Yet all rivalries are not exactly alike. We need to move to a more rewarding differentiation of how they differ in general. Principal rivalries are those antagonisms that are most significant to the decision makers in a state. The main distinction on issues about which rivals dispute are positional and spatial concerns. Positional rivalries contend over regional and global influence. Spatial rivals contend over which state deserves to control disputed territory. Interventionary rivalries predominate in sub-Saharan Africa. Their primary focus involves neighboring states attempting to influence who rules and how co-ethnics are treated.
This book updates the inventory of strategic rivalries from 1816 to 2020. Principal rivalries are identified for the first time and cover the same period. A theory stressing the two main types of rivalry (positional and spatial) is elaborated and tested. Regional variations on the origins and terminations of spatial rivalry are explored and interpreted. In addition, attention is paid to fluctuations in the intensity of positional rivalries by examining the working of the contemporary major power triangle (United States, Soviet Union/Russia, and China) and, more generally, the dynamics of regional power that are rising in terms of their relative capability and status in the system. Variations in cooperation and termination dynamics both in general and according to rivalry type are also examined. Overall, the emphases of the book are split between demonstrating the utility of distinguishing among rivalry types and examining selected rivalry dynamics.
Author(s): William R. Thompson, Kentaro Sakuwa, Prashant Hosur Suhas
Series: Evidence-Based Approaches to Peace and Conflict Studies, 4
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2021
Language: English
Pages: 299
City: Singapore
Contents
1 Rivalry Types and Dynamics
1.1 Origins
1.2 Maintenance/Escalation
1.3 Termination/De-escalation
1.4 Issues for Future Research
1.4.1 Rivalry Types
1.4.2 Rivalry Complexities
1.4.3 Rivalry Effects
1.4.4 Domestic Rivalries
1.5 Interim Conclusion
References
Part I Types of Rivalry
2 Strategic Rivalries and Different Types of Antagonisms
References
3 A Theory of Positional and Spatial Rivalry
3.1 A Generic and Two Issue Theory of Rivalry Dynamics
3.2 Measurement Issues
3.3 Rivalry Initiation
3.4 Rivalry Termination
3.5 Rivalry and Conflict in General: A Check on Some of Our Assumptions
3.6 Conclusion
References
4 Variation in Spatial Rivalries and Regional Conflict Propensities
4.1 Regions and Variable Conflict Propensities
4.2 Argument
4.3 Research Design
4.4 Variables and Data
4.5 Findings
4.6 Conflict Propensities of Spatial Rivalries
4.7 Militarization
4.8 Autocratization
4.9 Growth (Change) Models
4.10 Conclusion
References
5 Multiple Rivalries, Mixed Attributes, and Conflict Processes
5.1 Multiple Rivalries and Conflict Outcomes: A Literature Review
5.2 Multiple Rivals, Rivalry Attributes, and Strategic Vulnerabilities
5.3 Spatial and Positional Rivalries
5.4 Data
5.5 Methods
5.6 Results and Analysis
5.7 Robustness Checks
5.8 Conclusions
References
6 Principal Rivalries
References
Part II Rivalry Dynamics
7 Long-Term Patterns of Conflict and Stability in the Asian Region
7.1 The Problem with the European Past as a Model for Other Regions
7.2 The Problem with Relying on Asia’s Own History as a Predictive Guide
7.3 Challengers and Leaders
7.4 Coalitions and Bipolarization
7.5 Increases in Economic Competitiveness
7.6 Multiple Rivalries “Ripening”
7.7 Weak Constraints on Conflict
References
8 Great Power Triangular Rivalry Interactions: China, the Soviet Union/Russia, and the United States
8.1 Theoretical Expectations
8.2 Models and Data
8.3 Preliminary Analysis: When Does a Strategic Triangle Strongly Exist?
8.4 How Does Rivalry Affect Reciprocity and Inertia?
8.5 How Does the Presence of A Third Party Affect Dyadic Interactions?
8.6 ECM Results
8.7 U.S.-Chinese Cooperation
8.8 Evaluation and Summary
References
9 Regional Power Ascent and Territorial Revisionism
9.1 Territorial Disputes from a Regional Perspective
9.2 Regional Power Ascent and Revisionism
9.3 Data and Method
9.4 Cases of Regional Powers
9.5 Results
9.6 Conclusions
References
10 International Rivalry, Territorial Disputes, and Peaceful Dispute Resolution
10.1 Peaceful Resolution of Territorial Disputes
10.2 Rivalry and Dispute Resolution
10.3 Research Design
10.3.1 Dependent Variable
10.3.2 Independent Variable
10.3.3 Controls
10.4 Results
10.4.1 Dyadic Rivalry
10.4.2 External Rivalries
10.4.3 Survival Analysis
10.4.4 External Territorial Disputes
10.4.5 Is There Selection Bias?
10.5 Conclusion
References
11 Rivalry Attributes and Foreign Policy Alignment Explaining Rivalry De-Escalation via UNGA Voting Patterns
11.1 UNGA Voting: A Literature Review
11.2 Rivalry and Foreign Policy Alignment: The Argument
11.3 Rivalry Attributes
11.4 Principal Rivals
11.5 Data and Methods
11.6 Spatial and Positional Rivals
11.7 Control Variables
11.8 Allied with the United States of America
11.9 Results and Analysis
11.10 Robustness Check
11.11 Conclusions
References
12 Rivalry De-escalation, Regional Transformation, and Variations on Political-Economic Forward Looking
12.1 Rivalries and Termination
12.2 The Franco-German Rivalry
12.3 The Argentine-Brazilian Rivalry
12.4 The Egyptian-Israeli Rivalry
12.5 Conclusion
References
13 Constructing a General Model Accounting for Interstate Rivalry Termination
13.1 One and Done and Striving for Novelty as Opposed to Cumulation
13.2 The Core Model
13.3 Thirteen Other Models
13.3.1 Model 1
13.3.2 Model 2
13.3.3 Model 3
13.3.4 Model 4
13.3.5 Model 5
13.3.6 Model 6
13.3.7 Model 7
13.3.8 Model 8
13.3.9 Model 9
13.3.10 Model 10
13.3.11 Model 11
13.3.12 Model 12
13.3.13 Model 13
13.4 Deconstructing the Models
13.5 An Illustration; The Anglo-American Rivalry
13.6 Conclusion
References
14 Coda
References
