Population growth slowed across the world in the last decades of the 20th century, changing substantially our view of the future. The 21st century is likely to see the end to world population growth and become the century of population aging, marked by low fertility and ever-increasing life expectancy. These trends have prompted many to predict a gloomy future caused by an unprecedented economic burden of population aging. In response, industrialized nations will need to implement effective social and economic policies and programs. This is the final volume in a series of three. The papers included explore many examples and strengthen the basis for effective economic and social policies by investigating the economic, social, and demographic consequences of the transformations in the structures of population and family. These consequences include changes in economic behavior, both in labor and financial markets, and with regard to saving and consumption, and intergenerational transfers of money and care.
Author(s): Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier
Edition: 1st Edition.
Year: 2010
Language: English
Pages: 350
Cover Page
......Page 1
Ageing in Advanced Industrial States
......Page 2
Introduction......Page 10
Dynamics of Demographic Transitions......Page 11
Fiscal Dynamics and Projections......Page 13
Wealth and Health......Page 15
Family and Care......Page 16
Time Use and Labour......Page 17
Part I
Dynamics of Transitions......Page 20
Age-Structural Transitions, Ageing and Policy......Page 21
Background to and Rationale for the Present Paper......Page 22
When WDCs Will Have ‘Completed’ Their Age-Structural Transitions: Ageing......Page 25
Age-Structural Transitions: Population Waves and Their Troughs......Page 30
Age-Structural Transitions: Co-varying Waves, and Co-varying Waves and Troughs......Page 34
Towards a Conclusion: Policy Implications of Age-Structural Transitions......Page 35
References......Page 39
On Age Structures and Mortality......Page 40
Stable Population Theory......Page 42
Box 1 Application of stable population theory to Norway’s age distribution in 1801......Page 43
Variable Growth Rate Method......Page 45
Box 2 Mortality schedules computed on the basis of the variable growth rate method, Norway, 1850–1995......Page 46
Box 3 Brunborg’s application of the IP-method to Norway, 1735–1974......Page 48
Errors in Historical Projections of Age Structures......Page 52
Box 4 Errors in age structure projections......Page 53
Improving Forecasts for the Elderly......Page 54
Cause of Death......Page 55
Stochastic Mortality Forecasts......Page 56
Conclusions......Page 57
References......Page 60
Introduction......Page 64
Race Differentials and the Crossover......Page 65
Analytical Concerns......Page 67
The Nonlinear Model......Page 70
The Fitted Demographic Model......Page 72
Modelling the Mortality Index, k......Page 75
The General Case......Page 76
The Unit Root Test......Page 77
Tests for Co-integration......Page 78
Forecasts of Life Expectancies and Their Differentials......Page 79
Death Rates......Page 80
Survival Distributions......Page 82
Life Table Entropy......Page 85
The Morphological Basis for Classifying Races......Page 87
The Genetic Basis for Classifying Races......Page 88
Conclusion......Page 89
References......Page 90
Part II
Fiscal Dynamics and Projections......Page 93
Introduction......Page 94
Why Population Matters......Page 95
Dealing with Economic Uncertainty......Page 96
The Approach......Page 97
Population Projections......Page 98
The Age Structure of Benefits......Page 99
Detailed Assumptions and Procedures......Page 100
Forecasts of Benefits......Page 101
Taxes......Page 102
Problems with Current Version......Page 103
Results with No Budget Adjustment......Page 104
Results with Tax Adjustment......Page 105
Social Security (OASDI) and Medicare......Page 106
Results by Age......Page 109
Conclusions......Page 113
References......Page 114
Introduction......Page 116
Alternative Models of Mortality......Page 117
Using Mortality Models in OLG Models......Page 118
Distribution of Death Age......Page 119
Life Cycles and the Economy......Page 121
Comparative Static Results: Simple Case......Page 123
Changes in Life Expectancy......Page 124
Joint Effects from Changing Life Expectancy and Uncertainty of Death Age......Page 125
Comparisons......Page 126
Schooling......Page 128
Retirement......Page 129
References......Page 131
Introduction......Page 133
Raw and Aggregate Mortality......Page 134
Adverse Selection in Life Insurance and Annuities......Page 135
Plots of Age at Death Distributions......Page 138
International Comparisons of Insurance and Population Mortality Tables......Page 139
Data Description......Page 140
Results for Insurance Tables......Page 141
Comparing Insurance and Annuity Mortality Tables......Page 147
Conclusions......Page 148
References......Page 149
Part III
Wealth and Health......Page 150
Introduction......Page 151
Recent Studies of Ageing and Saving......Page 153
The Lifecycle Saving Model......Page 157
The Data......Page 160
Adjustments to Income and Consumption......Page 161
Non-Coresident Family Members......Page 162
The Results......Page 164
Projections of Population and Living Arrangements......Page 168
Projection Results......Page 172
Conclusions......Page 175
Surviving Offspring per Woman......Page 176
Surviving Parents per Offspring......Page 177
Proportion Living in Extended Households......Page 178
Proportion of Worker, Other and Jobless Households......Page 180
References......Page 181
Introduction......Page 184
What We Know About the Future Costs of Health Care in Rich Ageing Societies......Page 185
Basic Spending Patterns......Page 186
Combining Demography and Expenditures: The Burgeoning Literature on Forecasting Future Patterns of Health Care Costs......Page 189
Added Features and Concerns......Page 192
Income Elasticity of Demand for Health Care......Page 193
Benefits of New Health Care Treatments and New Pharmaceuticals......Page 196
The Distribution of Costs......Page 199
Summary and Conclusions......Page 201
References......Page 202
Part IV
Family and Care......Page 205
Introduction......Page 206
Demographic and Health Trends Influencing Needs for Support......Page 207
Trends in Health and Disability Status......Page 211
Family Support......Page 212
Living Arrangements......Page 214
Other Family Links......Page 216
Partnership Status and History and Contact Between Adult Children and Parents......Page 218
Care Giving and Care Receipt......Page 219
Living Arrangements, Family Support, Health and Use of Formal Services......Page 221
Policy Implications and Interactions......Page 223
Conclusion: Looking to the Future......Page 225
References......Page 226
Care of the Elderly and Women’s Labour Force Participation in Japan......Page 232
Background......Page 233
Health Expectancy of the Elderly in Japan......Page 236
Analytical Framework and Brief Review of Previous Research......Page 246
Empirical Analysis......Page 248
Summary and Conclusion......Page 263
References......Page 268
Introduction......Page 271
Methods and Data......Page 274
Partnership......Page 278
Natural Parents and Children......Page 280
Grandparents and Grandchildren......Page 282
Sibs......Page 284
Step-families......Page 286
Stepsibs......Page 288
Alternative Scenarios for Industrialised Countries......Page 289
Conclusions and Implications......Page 290
References......Page 291
Part V
Time Use and Labor......Page 294
Historical Trends in the Patterns of Time Use of Older Adults......Page 295
Review of Literature......Page 296
Theoretical Model......Page 298
Data and Methods......Page 299
Findings......Page 303
Paid Work......Page 305
Housework......Page 306
Active Pursuits......Page 307
Passive Activities......Page 310
Overall Summary......Page 311
Conclusion......Page 313
References......Page 314
Introduction......Page 317
The Negative Impact of Mandatory Retirement on the Utilization of Older Human Capital......Page 319
The Negative Impact of Age Limitation in Hiring on Labour Mobility......Page 322
Necessary Reform of the Employment System for an Age Free Labour Market......Page 325
References......Page 330
Index
......Page 331
