In this book the consequent use of probability theory is proposed for handling uncertainty in expert systems. It is shown that methods violating this suggestion may have dangerous consequences (e.g., the Dempster-Shafer rule and the method used in MYCIN). The necessity of some requirements for a correct combining of uncertain information in expert systems is demonstrated and suitable rules are provided. The possibility is taken into account that interval estimates are given instead of exact information about probabilities. For combining information containing interval estimates rules are provided which are useful in many cases.
Author(s): Kurt Weichselberger, Sigrid Pöhlmann (auth.)
Series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science 419 : Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence
Edition: 1
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Year: 1990
Language: English
Pages: 310
Tags: Artificial Intelligence (incl. Robotics); Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Statistics, general
The aims of this study....Pages 1-5
Interval estimation of probabilities....Pages 7-27
Related theories....Pages 29-65
The simplest case of a diagnostic system....Pages 67-85
Generalizations....Pages 87-98
Interval estimation of probabilities in diagnostic systems....Pages 99-120
A demonstration of the use of interval estimation....Pages 121-125
