As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book assists the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. The accompanying CD contains: A suite of resources for those wishing to learn more about climate modelling. A range of model visualisations. Data from climate models for use in the classroom. Windows and Macintosh programs for an Energy Balance Model. Selected figures from the book for inclusion in presentations and lectures. Suitable for 3rd/4th year undergraduates taking courses in climate modelling, economic forecasting, computer science, environmental science, geography and oceanography. Also of relevance to researchers and professionals working in related disciplines with climate models or who need accessible technical background to climate modelling predictions.
Author(s): Kendal McGuffie, Ann Henderson-Sellers
Edition: 3
Publisher: Wiley
Year: 2005
Language: English
Pages: 296
Tags: Науки о Земле;Метеорология и климатология;
A CLIMATE MODELLING PRIMER, 3RD ED.......Page 1
Half-title......Page 2
Title Page......Page 3
Copyright Page......Page 4
Dedication......Page 6
Contents......Page 8
Preface......Page 14
Acknowledgements......Page 16
1.1 The components of climate ......Page 17
Introduction and outline of the book ......Page 19
The climate system ......Page 21
1.2 Climate change assessment ......Page 23
1.2.1 The scientific perspective ......Page 25
1.2.2 The human perspective ......Page 29
1.2.3 Isotopes and climate ......Page 34
1.3 Climate forcings ......Page 38
Milankovitch variations ......Page 39
Solar activity ......Page 41
Greenhouse gases ......Page 42
Stratospheric ozone ......Page 43
Land-surface changes ......Page 45
Volcanic eruptions ......Page 47
Ocean circulation changes ......Page 49
1.4 Climate feedbacks and sensitivity ......Page 51
1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks ......Page 52
1.4.4 Combining feedback effects ......Page 54
1.5 Range of questions for climate modelling ......Page 58
Recommended reading ......Page 59
Web resources ......Page 61
The need for simplification ......Page 63
Resolution in time and space ......Page 64
2.2 Types of climate models ......Page 65
2.2.1 Energy balance climate models ......Page 68
2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative–convective climate models ......Page 69
2.2.3 Dimensionally-constrained climate models ......Page 70
2.2.4 General circulation models ......Page 71
2.2.5 Stable isotopes and interactive biogeochemistry ......Page 75
2.3 History of climate modelling ......Page 79
2.4 Sensitivity of climate models ......Page 82
Equilibrium climatic states ......Page 83
Stability of model results ......Page 84
Equilibrium conditions and transitivity of climate systems ......Page 85
Measures of climate model sensitivity ......Page 86
2.5 Parameterization of climatic processes ......Page 88
Interactions in the climate system ......Page 89
2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate system: one goal of modelling......Page 92
Recommended reading ......Page 93
Web resources ......Page 94
3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget ......Page 97
3.2.1 Zero-dimensional EBMs ......Page 98
3.2.2 One-dimensional EBMs ......Page 101
3.3 Parameterizing the climate system for energy balance models ......Page 102
Albedo ......Page 103
Heat transport ......Page 104
Description of the EBM ......Page 105
3.4.2 BASIC geophysiology ......Page 112
3.5 Energy balance models and glacial cycles ......Page 115
3.5.1 Milankovitch cycles ......Page 117
3.5.2 Snowball Earth ......Page 119
3.6 Box models – another form of energy balance model ......Page 121
3.6.1 Zonal box models that maximize planetary entropy ......Page 122
3.6.2 A simple box model of the ocean–atmosphere ......Page 124
3.6.3 A coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model......Page 127
3.7 Energy balance models: deceptively simple models ......Page 129
Recommended reading ......Page 131
Web resources ......Page 132
4.1 Why lower complexity? ......Page 133
4.2 One-dimensional radiative–convective models ......Page 137
The structure of global radiative–convective models ......Page 138
4.3 Radiation: the driver of climate ......Page 140
4.3.1 Shortwave radiation ......Page 142
Shortwave radiation subject to scattering (R s)......Page 144
Shortwave radiation subject to absorption (R a)......Page 145
4.3.2 Longwave radiation ......Page 147
4.3.3 Heat balance at the ground ......Page 149
4.4 Convective adjustment ......Page 150
4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative–convective models ......Page 152
Sensitivity to humidity ......Page 153
Sensitivity to clouds ......Page 154
Sensitivity to lapse rate selected for convective adjustment ......Page 155
Cloud prediction ......Page 156
Model sensitivity ......Page 157
Regional and local applications ......Page 158
4.7.1 Parameterizations for two-dimensional modelling ......Page 159
4.7.2 ‘Column’ processes in two-dimensional statistical dynamical (SD) models ......Page 165
4.8.1 An upgraded energy balance model ......Page 166
4.8.2 Multi-column RC models ......Page 167
4.8.3 A severely truncated spectral general circulation climate model ......Page 170
4.8.4 Repeating sectors in a global ‘grid’ model ......Page 171
4.8.5 A two-and-a-half-dimensional model: CLIMBER-2 ......Page 172
4.8.8 EMICs predict future release of radiocarbons from the oceans ......Page 174
4.9 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders? ......Page 176
Recommended reading ......Page 178
Web resources ......Page 179
5.1 Three-dimensional models of the climate system ......Page 181
5.2 Modelling the atmosphere ......Page 182
5.2.1 Finite grid formulation of atmospheric models ......Page 184
5.2.2 Spectral models ......Page 186
Representing the atmosphere with waves ......Page 187
Structure of a spectral model ......Page 188
Truncation ......Page 190
5.2.3 Geodesic grids ......Page 191
5.2.4 The influence of computer architecture on numerical methods ......Page 193
5.2.5 Atmospheric GCM components ......Page 194
Radiative transfer ......Page 195
Boundary layer ......Page 196
Cloud prediction ......Page 198
Convection processes ......Page 199
Gravity wave drag ......Page 203
5.3.1 Background ......Page 204
5.3.2 Formulation of three-dimensional ocean models ......Page 206
Co-ordinate system ......Page 207
5.4 Modelling the cryosphere ......Page 211
5.5 Modelling the land surface ......Page 215
5.6 Atmospheric chemistry ......Page 218
5.7 Coupling models: towards the predictive Earth system model ......Page 220
Model complexity comes full circle: using ‘MAGICC’ ......Page 224
Recommended reading ......Page 226
Web resources ......Page 228
6.1 Working with climate models ......Page 229
6.2 Data interchange ......Page 230
6.3 Earth System Modelling Frameworks ......Page 232
6.4 Model evaluation ......Page 234
6.4.1 Intercomparisons facilitated by technology ......Page 235
6.4.2 AMIP and CMIP ......Page 236
6.4.3 Radiation and cloud intercomparisons ......Page 237
6.4.4 Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) ......Page 238
6.4.5 Comparing carbon-cycle subcomponents of climate models ......Page 240
Isotopes quantify the global carbon budget ......Page 242
6.4.6 More and more MIPs ......Page 244
6.5 Exploitation of climate model predictions ......Page 246
6.5.1 Expert assessment ......Page 247
Land use change ......Page 248
Palaeoclimate and mineral deposits ......Page 250
6.5.3 Regional climate prediction ......Page 252
6.5.4 Policy development ......Page 254
6.6 Integrated assessment models ......Page 255
6.7 The future of climate modelling ......Page 260
Recommended reading ......Page 262
Web resources ......Page 264
EBMs and other ‘simple’ models ......Page 265
Classic model experiments ......Page 266
Clouds and radiation ......Page 267
The ocean ......Page 268
Coupled models ......Page 269
Climate system ......Page 270
Feedbacks and forcings ......Page 271
A......Page 273
B-C......Page 275
D......Page 276
E......Page 277
F......Page 278
G......Page 279
H-I......Page 280
J-K-L-M......Page 281
N-O......Page 282
P-Q-R......Page 283
S......Page 284
T-U-V-W......Page 286
X-Y-Z......Page 287
Appendix C. About the Primer CD......Page 289
Index ......Page 291
