The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza

The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza
Half-title
Title Page
Printer's Imprint
Dedication
Foreword
Acknowledgments
CONTENTS
Chap. 1. The Scope and Purpose of the Book
Antiquity of the Doubt that Influenza Is Contagious
Theophilus Thompson's Anthology
Dubiety despite Advance in Knowledge
Personal Involvement in the Problems of Epidemic Influenza
Deficiency of the Current Concept: The Influence of Season
The New Concept of Virus Persistence, Latency, and Seasonal Reactivation
Other Alternative Hypotheses
The Importance of the History of the Behavior of Human Influenza Viruses
References
Chap. 2. The Debate about the Contagiousness of Influenza
The Ubiquity of Influenza
An Influenza Epidemic in the Seventeenth Century
Ideas about Influenza in the Eighteenth Century
The Nineteenth Century before Pasteur
Opinion in the Nineteenth Century after Pasteur
References
Chap. 3. Epidemic Influenza, 1900-1932
1900-1916
Prelude to the 1918 Pandemic
The Pandemic of 1918
1919-1928
1928-1933
References
Chap. 4. The Effect of the Discovery of the Causal Organism
The Discovery of an Influenza Virus
The Discovery of a Human Influenza Virus
The Influenza of 1932-33 in a General Practice
The Conceptual Impact of Discovery of the Influenza Viruses
Field Studies that Stimulated New Ideas
Transequatorial Swing of Influenza
The Role of Herd Immunity
A New Hypothesis from Andrewes
The Vanishing Trick
References
Chap. 5. The Viruses that Cause Epidemic Influenza
Introduction
The Instability of RNA Genomes
The Structure of Influenza A and B Virions
Invasion of the Host Cell and Replication
The Antigenicity of Influenza Viruses
Classification of Influenza Viruses
Strain Nomenclature of Influenza Virus
References
Chap. 6. Antigenic Variation and Recycling of Influenza A Viruses
Eras of Prevalence of A(H0N1) and A(H1N1 Old Style) Influenza Viruses
The Doctrine of Original Antigenic Sin and Other Unexpected Findings
Serological Archaeology and the Discovery of Recycling of Eras of Prevalence
References
Chap. 7. The Necessity for a New Concept
Introduction
Interepidemic Absence of the Prevalent Influenza Virus
Why Do Influenza Epidemics Cease?
The Differing Characters of the Epidemics of 1957, 1968-69, and 1969-70
Problems from Household Studies: Low Attack Rate and Absent Serial Interval
Epidemics in Small Localities Reflect the National Experience
Anomalies in the Age Distribution of Influenza Patients
References
Chap. 8. The Influence of Season
The Omission of Season from Concepts of the Epidemiology of Influenza
The Global View of Influenza
The Cause of Seasons and Seasonal Phenomena: A Natural Law
Season and the Common Cold
The Role of Season in the Epidemiology of Influenza
Summary of Chapters 7 and 8
References
Chap. 9. The Explanation of Antigenic Drift
Features of Antigenic Drift of Influenza Virus
The Current Explanation of Antigenic Drift
Andrewes's Hypothesis of a Dose-Related Response
Laboratory Production of Antigenic Drift of Influenza Virus
Drift as Explained by the New Concept: An Example from General Practice
Serious Difficulties in Explaining Antigenic Drift
The Behavior of Natural Killer Lymphocytes in Influenzal Infections
Duration and Fate of Persistent Virus in Human Carriers
Summary
References
Chap. 10. Antigenic Shift of Influenza A Virus
The Changing Definition of Antigenic Shift
The Eras of Prevalence of Major Influenza A Serotypes during the Last 100 Years
Features of the Behavior of Influenza A Virus that Require Explanation
The Timing of the Major Mutations and Genetic Reassortments
Recycling of Major Mutants and Subtypes
The Vanishing Trick
Rapid Replacement by the Successor
The Location and Nature of the Stored Virus
Solitary Prevalence of Major Influenza A Viruses
The Source of the Novel Genes at Antigenic Shift
Seasonal Character of Major Antigenic Changes
Ubiquity of Epidemics of Influenza
The Task Facing the Epidemiologist
Cyclic Variations in Solar Activity and Influenza A Virus Antigenicity
References
Chap. 11. Hypotheses of Antigenic Shift
Hypotheses of Shift Involving Nonhuman Hosts
Kilbourne's 1975 Hypothesis
The Hypothesis of Webster and Laver in 1975
Later Concepts of Kilbourne
The Significance of Antigenic Difference of Neuraminidase in Old and New Strains
Hypothesis of an Influenza Epicenter in China
A Dual Recombination Hypothesis
References
Chap. 12. Some Other Epidemiological Hypotheses
The Theory of a Blast from the Stars
A New Meteorological Hypothesis
Information from Evolutionary Dendrograms
Positive Darwinian Evolution in Human Influenza A Viruses
Some Arboviruses that May Be Related to Influenza Virus
References
Chap. 13. Influenza in Nonhuman Hosts
The Importance of Information Concerning Nonhuman Influenzal Infection
The Zoonotic Hypothesis
Avian Influenzal Infections
Swine Influenza and Other Influenzal Infections in Pigs
The Fort Dix Influenza Epidemic
Equine Influenza
Interspecies Transmissions of Influenza Virus
References
Chap. 14. Experimental Studies
Laboratory Animal Studies Reveal Varied Modes of Survival of Influenza A Virus
Protracted Infection of Cell Cultures
Theoretical Application of Experimental Findings
Zoonotic _versus_ Anthroponotic Carriage
Anthroponotic _versus_ Zoonotic Carriage
The Evidence from Retrospective Serology
References
Chap. 15. Influenzal Anachronisms
The Existence of Influenzal Anachronisms
The Presence of the Prevalent Strain between Epidemics
The Reappearance of Vanished Variants of the Prevalent Subtype
Isolation of Strains Belonging to a Vanished Subtype
Other Serological Evidence of Anachronisms
Anticipatory Findings before Antigenic Shift
Anachronistic Influenza Epidemics in Remote Communities
References
Chap. 16. The New Concept in Detail
Proposition 1: Concerning Lack of Spread during Human Influenza
Proposition 2: Concerning Persistent Influenza Virus Infections
Proposition 3: Concerning Seasonal Reactivation of Persistent Influenza Virus
Proposition 4: Concerning Influenza Epidemics "Out of Season"
Proposition 5: Concerning the Speed of Epidemic Travel of Influenza
Proposition 6: Concerning Antigenic Drift of Influenza Virus
Proposition 7: Concerning the Seasonal Metamorphoses of Influenza Virus
Proposition 8: Concerning Eras of Prevalence of Influenza A Viruses
Proposition 9: Concerning Recycling of Major Variants of Influenza A Virus
Proposition 10: Concerning "Interpandemic" Survival of Influenza A Virus and Its Reactivation
Proposition 11: Concerning the Lineages of Human Influenza A Virus Subtypes
The Possibly Unique Epidemiology of Influenza
References
Chap. 17. Some Tests of the New Concept
Consequences
Epidemics that Occur Out of Season
Evidence from the Speed of Travel of Epidemic Influenza
Evidence from the Annals of Influenza
Excess General Mortality Associated with Influenza Epidemics
Study of Excess Overall Mortality Associated with Influenza in the Twentieth Century
Evidence from Parish Burial Registers
Archive Data from Widely Separated Communities
References
Chap. 18. The Natural History of Human Influenza
Introduction
Comments of Kilbourne about the New Concept
The Comments of Cliff, Haggett, and Ord
Endemicity and the Critical Population Size
How Influenza Differs from Many Other Epidemic Infections
The Serial Interval
The Infectiousness
The Age Distribution of the Persons Attacked
The Problem List as a Totality
Is Influenza Epidemicity Unique?
The Wider Implications of the New Concept
References
Author Index
Subject Index