The Art and Science of Demand and Supply Chain Planning in Todays Complex Global Economy

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The demand and supply chain planning process for manufacturers, distributors, and retailers has evolved over the years. It has gone from a disjointed, unconnected, slow, inaccurate, fairly manual set of processes to an integrated, timely process enabled by the use and coordination of highly trained people, lean, agile processes, and cutting-edge technology. To make this set of processes work effectively, one has to fully understand and appreciate that there is an "art and science" aspect to the process which can take years of education and experience to fully understand. Essentially, this book will offer the reader a chance to fully understand the interconnected set of processes in a "best-practice" application. Furthermore, examples and cases will be used to illustrate its practical application in today’s complex global supply chain. In addition, readers will understand and be able to apply and articulate the concepts, tools, and techniques used in the efficient supply of goods and services in today’s changing global economy. It will help them to learn how businesses, through their supply chain, work both internally and with their trading partners – both upstream and downstream – to build strong relationships and integrate demand and supply planning activities across the supply chain to deliver customer value efficiently and effectively. They will learn about the tools and technologies enabling integration, and the critical drivers and key metrics of supply chain performance.

Author(s): Paul Myerson
Publisher: Routledge/Productivity Press
Year: 2023

Language: English
Pages: 432
City: New York

Cover
Endrosment Page
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Preface
About the Author
Section I Supply Chain Strategy
Chapter 1 Introduction to Demand and Supply Chain Planning in Today’s Complex and Increasingly Uncertain Global Economy
How This Book Can Help
Where We Are Today and Changing Strategies
Revising Processes
Transforming Technology
Managing People and Change
Where to Look for Improvement: On the Demand Side
Improving Timing and Accuracy
Flattening Volatility
Enabling Accurate Forecasts
Where to Look for Improvement: On the Supply Side
Supply-Side Accuracy and Timeliness
People, Process, Technology
Chapter 2 Understanding the Importance of Supply Chain to an Organization and Developing a Strategy for a Sustained Competitive Advantage
Historical Perspective
Value as a Utility
Corporate, Business, and Supply Chain Strategy
Mission and Vision Statements
Strategy Defined
Determining Your Corporate and Business Strategy
Strategic Choices
Supply Chain Objective and Strategic Importance
“Outside-In” vs. “Inside-Out” Thinking
Supply Chain Strategy “Transformation” Methodology
Business Model Canvas and Supply Chain Model Canvas
Business Model Canvas
Supply Chain Model Canvas
Supply Chain Strategy Implementation Methodology
People
Process
Technology
Chapter 3 Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope
Supply Chain Strategy Elements and Drivers
Industry Framework
Unique Value Proposal
Managerial Focus
Internal Processes
Supply Chain Drivers and Their Impact on Its Capabilities
Efficiency vs. Responsiveness
The Right Mix of Efficiency and Responsiveness
Segmentation Strategy for Supply Chains
Technology Is a Foundation for an Efficient and Responsive Supply Chain
Achieving Strategic Fit
Chapter 4 Supply Chain Metrics and Measurements
Measurement and Control Methods
The Evolution of Metrics
Data Analytics
Measurement Methods
Measurement Categories
Balanced Scorecard Approach
Customer Service Metrics
Operational Metrics
Financial Metrics
Innovation and Learning Metrics
Supply Chain Operations Reference Model
Supply Chain Dashboard and KPIs
Indicators
Benchmarking
Chapter 5 Supply Chain Network Design
The Importance of Facility Location When Designing a Supply Chain
Supply Chain Network Design Influencers
Types of Trade-offs in the Location Decision
Types of Distribution Networks
Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping and In-Transit Merge
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Distributor Storage with Last-Mile Delivery
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with Customer Pickup
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Retailer Storage with Customer Pickup
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Impact of E-business on the Distribution Network
Cost Impacts
Service Impacts on the Distribution Network
Supply Chains Must Adapt to Omni Channel Retail
What Needs to Be Done?
Distribution Disruption: Ready or Not, Here It Comes
Omni Channel Multiplies the Challenges for Distribution-centric Supply Chains
Store Delivery May Keep Traditional Brick-and-Mortar Retailers in the (Omni Channel) Game
Getting Creative
E-commerce Looking for Room to Grow
Location Decisions
Strategic Considerations
Selecting a New Facility
Location Decisions Hierarchy
Country Decision
Regional Decision
Local Decision
Dominant Factors in Manufacturing
Dominant Factors in Services
Location Techniques
Location Cost–Volume Analysis
Weighted Factor Rating Method
Center of Gravity Method
The Transportation Problem Model
Technology
Chapter 6 A Lean, Agile, and Smart Supply Chain to Meet the Volatile Demand and Supply Conditions of the 21st Century
Hybrid Supply Chain
Either or Both
The Smart Supply Chain
History of Lean
Value-Added vs. Non-value-Added Activities
Waste
Lean Culture and Teamwork
Lean Teams
Kaizen and Teams
Team and Kaizen Objectives
Value Stream Mapping
VSM Benefits
Lean Tools
Standardized Work
5S Workplace Organization System
Visual Controls
Facility Layout
Batch Size Reduction and Quick Changeover
Quality at the Source
Point of Use Storage
Total Productive Maintenance
Pull/Kanban and Work Cells
Lean and Six Sigma
Omni Channel Requires an Agile and Responsive Supply Chain
The Retail Supply Chain Needs to Continuously Adapt
Areas for Change and Improvement
Lean and Agile Supply Chain Planning Process
Lean Supply Chain Objectives
A Lean Supply Chain Implementation Methodology
Chapter 7 Strategic Sourcing and Procurement
Strategic Sourcing vs. Procurement
Strategic Sourcing Processes
Lean Strategic Sourcing
Seven Activities of Lean Strategic Sourcing
Lean Sourcing Journey
Lean Strategic Sourcing MRO: Case Study 1
Challenge
Approach
Results
Sourcing as Strategy: Case Study 2
Challenge
Approach
Results
Procurement (aka Sourcing)
The Procurement Process
Step 1 – Identify and Review Requirements
Direct Procurement
Indirect Procurement
Step 2 – Establish Specifications
Step 3 – Identify and Select Suppliers
Vendor Evaluation
Step 4 – Determine the Right Price
Negotiation
Key Procurement Metrics
Lean Procurement
Core Principles of Lean Procurement
Procurement Technology
Technology to Enhance Lean Procurement
Erskine Lean Review of Procurement – Case Study 1
Challenge
Approach
Results
Scapa – Case Study 2
Challenge
Approach
Results
Chapter 8 Integration, Coordination, and Collaboration in the Supply Chain
Internal and External Integration
Internal Integration
External Integration
Supply Chain Collaboration by Industry
Levels of External Collaboration
Types of External Collaboration
Benefits to Collaboration
Supply Chain Collaboration Methods – A Closer Look
Quick Response
Efficient Consumer Response
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment
Industry 4.0 and Supply Chain 4.0 for Further Integration and Collaboration
Integrated Process Optimization
Collaboration through the Cloud
Section II Demand-Side Planning
Chapter 9 Demand Planning: The Art and Science of Forecasting
Forecasting Used to Be Strictly Like “Driving Ahead, Looking in the Rearview Mirror”
Demand Sensing and Shaping
Artificial Intelligence and Forecasting
Forecasting Realities
Types of Forecasts
Demand Drivers
Internal Demand Drivers
External Demand Drivers
Forecasting Process Steps
Quantitative vs. Qualitative Models
Qualitative Models
Knowledge and Intuition of the Products
Market Surveys
Jury of Executive Opinion
Delphi Method
Quantitative Models
Time Series Models
Associative Models
A Blended Approach: Collaboration and Consensus Forecasting
Product Life Cycles and Forecasting
Introduction Phase
Growth Phase
Maturity Phase
Decline Phase
Time Series Components
Time Series Models
Causal or Associative Models
Correlation
Seasonality
Multiple Regression
Box–Jenkins
Focus Forecasting
Forecasting Metrics
Forecast Error Measurement
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Tracking Signal
Order Management and Customer Service
Chapter 10 Information Technology in Demand Planning
Demand Forecasting Technology and Best Practices
Forecasting Technology Options and Requirements
Why Use Forecasting Technology?
How Technology Helps the Demand Forecasting Process
Listening to Social Media
Improve Demand Forecasting with the IoT
Streamline and Improve Forecasting Processes with AI and ML
Typical AI-based Forecasting System
Accuracy in Demand
Traditional Solution Drawbacks
Demand Uncertainty and Existing Method Forecast Performance
Knowledge Gaps Filled by Machine Learning
Food for Thought
A Lean Approach to Forecasting
Lean Forecasting Process
Plan and Deliver
Order Management and Customer Relationship Systems
Order Management Systems
Customer Relationship Management Systems
Section III Supply-Side Planning
Chapter 11 Supply Chain (Independent Demand) Inventory Management and Control
Independent vs. Dependent Demand Inventory
Types of Inventory
Costs of Inventory
Carrying or Holding Costs
Ordering Costs
Setup Costs
Total Cost Minimized
Economic Order Quantity Model
Basic EOQ Calculation
Reorder Point Models
Fixed Quantity (“Q”) Model
Min/Max and Par Methods
Safety Stock
Fixed Period (“P”) Model
Single Period Model
ABC Method of Inventory Planning and Control
Realities of ABC Classification
Other Uses for ABC Classification
Inventory Control and Accuracy
Cycle Counting
Key Metrics
Chapter 12 Sales and Operations (Aggregate) Planning
The Process Decision
Goods and Service Processes
Project Process
Job Shop Process
Batch Process
Assembly Line or Repetitive Process
Continuous Flow Process
Mass Customization
Aggregate Planning and Master Production Scheduling Process Overview (Figure 12.2)
Aggregate Planning
S&OP Process
It’s Time to Bring the Outside-In to Your S&OP Process
S&OP in Retail
Integrated Business Planning
Planning and Control
Obstacles to Implementation
Get Motivated
View from the Control Tower
Control Towers Help to Support a Lean Supply Chain
Demand and Supply Options
Demand Options
Supply (Capacity) Options
Aggregate Planning Strategies
Production, Sales, and Inventory Method of Planning
Master Production Schedule
Production Strategies
System Nervousness
Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP) Software
Rough-Cut Capacity Planning
Chapter 13 Resource Planning – Dependent Demand Inventory and Purchasing
Material Requirements Planning
Bill of Material
MRP Mechanics
Purchasing
Step 5 – Issue Purchase Orders
Step 6 – Follow Up to Assure Correct Delivery
Step 7 – Receive and Accept Goods
Step 8 – Approve Invoice for Payment
Chapter 14 Resource Planning – Short-Term Scheduling and Omni Channel Delivery
Short-Term Scheduling
Types of Scheduling
Sequencing
Priority Rules
Short-Term Scheduling Process
Continuous vs. Discrete Industry Scheduling
Finite Capacity Scheduling
Service Scheduling
Types of Distribution Networks
Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping and In-Transit Merge
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Distributor Storage with Last-Mile Delivery
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with Customer Pickup
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Retailer Storage with Customer Pickup
Impact on Costs
Impact on Service
Delivery in Today’s Omni Channel Retail World
Managing Last-Mile Costs and Efficiency Is Critical
Some Ideas to Reduce Last-Mile Transportation Costs
How Omni Channel Fulfillment Is Affecting Transportation Sourcing and Execution
Where Is Last-Mile Delivery Headed?
Technology and the Last Mile
Chapter 15 Information Technology in Supply Planning
Viewpoints of Supply Chain Information Systems
Supply Chain Macro Processes
Supply Chain Information Technologies
Control Towers
Linking Technologies
Enterprise Resource Planning Systems
ERP Technology
Inventory (and Production) Planning and Control Technology
Sales and Operations Planning
Warehouse Management Systems
Order Management Systems
Customer Relationship Management Systems
Transportation Management Systems
Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP)
Master Production Scheduling (MPS)
Material Requirements Planning
Short-Term Scheduling Technology
Advanced Planning and Scheduling Systems
Finite Capacity Scheduling Systems
Advanced Planning and Scheduling Systems Technology
Section IV The Road Ahead
Chapter 16 The Impact of Omni Channel, the Pandemic, and Other Natural and Manmade Events on the Supply Chain
Omni Channel Retail Areas of Attention
Omni Channel Supply Chain Enablers
Many (Un)Happy Returns: Return Strategy as an Enabler
Technology as an Enabler
Omni Channel Order Management Systems and Their Benefits
Next Steps in Your Supply Chain’s Omni Channel Journey
Omni Channel Supply Chain Challenges
Why Is Omni Channel Important?
The Impact of Omni Channel Commerce on the Retail Supply Chain
Processing Customer Orders
Delivery from Store or Distribution Center?
Inventory Optimization and Sales and Operations Planning
Impacts on Distribution/Fulfillment Centers and IT
Impact of a Multi-step Picking Process
The Impact of Omni Channel Commerce on Manufacturers
Key Challenges
Pandemics, Climate Change, and Other Supply Chain Disruptions: The Road Map out of This Mess
Risk Mitigation Strategies
Where to Start
Work from the Top Down
Chapter 17 Global Supply Chain Risk Management: Identification and Mitigation
Managing and Mitigating Risk
Riding Out the (Whitewater) Rapids
Instead of a Crystal Ball …
Global Supply Chain Operations and Increased Need for Risk Management
Growth of Globalization
Factors Influencing Globalization
Reasons for a Company to Globalize
Global Supply Chain Strategy Development
International Transportation Methods
Ocean
Air
Motor
Rail
Global Intermediaries
Storage Facilities
Packaging
Global Supply Chain Risks and Challenges
Questions to Consider when Going Global
Key Global Supply Chain Challenges
Risk Management
Potential Risk Identification and Impact
Sources of Risk
Internal Risks
External Risks
Supply Chain Structure and Vulnerabilities
Supply Chain Risks and Tactics for Mitigation
Chapter 18 Harmonized Demand and Supply Chain Planning – It’s the Journey, Not Just the Destination
We Are All in This Together: Teamwork in a Lean Workplace
Team Building
Management’s Role
Keeping It Going
People, Process, and Technology: Synchronized for the Evolving Supply Chain Planning Strategy
Principles of a Supply Chain Strategy
Developing and Implementing a Future-State Vision
Leveraging the PPT Framework
Demand and Supply Chain Planning Capabilities Needed for the Future
The Need for Resiliency
Visibility into the Supply Chain
Capacity and Cost vs. Timeliness
Improving Forecast Accuracy
Ongoing AI and Cloud Technology Adoption
Appendix A Case Studies: Demand and Supply Chain Planning (Combining People, Process, and Technology)
Appendix B Chapter Discussion Questions
References
Index