"Sustainment" (as commonly defined by industry and government), is comprised of maintenance, support, and upgrade practices that sustain or improve the performance of a system and maximize the availability of goods and services while minimizing their cost and footprint or, more simply, the capacity of a system to endure. Sustainment is a multi-trillion-dollar enterprise for critical systems, in both government (infrastructure and defense) and industry (transportation, industrial controls, data centers, and energy generation). This book is a mix of engineering, operations research, and policy sciences intended to provide students with a thorough understanding of the concept of sustainability and sustainable product life-cycles, and an appreciation of the importance of sustaining critical systems. It starts from the key attributes for system sustainment that includes data analytics, engineering analysis and the public policy needed to support the development of technologies, processes, and frameworks required for the management of sustainable processes and practices. The specific topics covered include: acquisition of critical systems, reliability, maintenance, availability, readiness, inventory management, supply-chain management and risks, contracting for sustainment, and various analysis methodologies (discounted cash flow analysis, discrete-event simulation and Monte Carlo methods). Practice problems are included at the end of each chapter.
Author(s): Peter Sandborn, William Lucyshyn
Series: World Scientific Series On Emerging Technologies, 4
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 386
City: Singapore
Contents
Preface
About the Authors
1. Introduction to Sustainment
1.1 The Sustainment/Sustainability Landscape
1.2 Defining Sustainment
1.3.1 Technology trends – commercial moves faster than defense
1.3.2 Globalization of commercial supply chains
1.3.3 Offshoring to China
1.3.4 Budgetary pressures are forcing organizations to keep older equipment in operation longer
1.3.5 Shifts from just-in-case to just-in-time (JIT) inventory management
1.3.6 The complexity of supply chains
1.4 Elements of Critical System Sustainment
1.4.1 Legacy systems
1.4.2 Product life
1.4.3 Logistics
1.4.4 Resilience
1.4.5 Performability engineering
1.5 Systems Terminology
1.6 This Book
References
2. The Acquisition of Critical Systems
2.1 Total Ownership Costs – Performance Trade-offs
2.2 The Acquisition Process
2.3 Government Critical Systems Acquisition
2.4 System Design for Sustainment
2.4.1 Setting requirements: Availability, reliability, and maintainability
2.4.2 Choosing the right system architecture – Open versus Closed
2.4.3 Commercial off the shelf, modified off the shelf, government off the shelf
2.5 Technical Data Packages
2.6 Production
2.7 Best Practices
References
3. System Failure
3.1 How Systems Fail
3.2 Reliability
3.2.1 Failure rate
3.2.2 Failure distribution
3.2.3 Basic reliability math
3.2.4 Constant failure rate (exponentially distributed time-to-failure)
3.2.5 Weibull time-to-failure distribution
3.2.6 Conditional (mission) reliability
3.2.7 Stress screening
3.2.8 Multiple failure mechanisms
3.2.9 The reliability of systems
3.2.10 The cost of reliability
3.3 Software Reliability
3.3.1 How software fails
3.3.2 Software reliability
3.4 Quality, Durability, Robustness and Safety
References
Problems
4. Maintenance – Managing System Failure
4.1 Maintenance Levels
4.2 Maintenance Time and Maintainability
4.3 Common Maintenance Measures
4.4 Corrective Maintenance
4.4.1 Spare parts
4.4.1.1 Calculating the number of spares needed
4.4.1.2 Warranty, renewal functions and the number of spares needed
4.4.1.3 Alternating renewal processes
4.5 Preventative Maintenance
4.5.1 Constant-interval replacement
4.5.2 Replacement at a predetermined age
4.6 Predictive Maintenance
4.7 Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM)
4.8 Contract Maintenance
4.9 Maintenance Scheduling
4.10 Failure Free and Maintenance Free Operating Periods
4.11 Summary: Maintenance Policy
References
Problems
5. Availability and Readiness
5.1 Time-based Availability Measures
5.1.1 Time-interval-based availability measures
5.1.2 Downtime-based availability measures
5.1.3 Application-specific availability measures
5.1.4 System availability
5.1.5 Partial system availability
5.1.6 Readiness
5.1.7 Markov availability models
5.2 Non-time-based Availability
5.2.1 Backorders and supply availability
5.2.2 Erlang-B
5.2.3 Materiel availability
5.2.4 Energy-based availability
5.3 System Effectiveness
5.4 Mapping Availability to Cost
References
Problems
6. Sustainment Inventory Management
6.1 Inventory Modeling
6.1.1 Inventory metrics relevant to system sustainment
6.2 Traditional Inventory Modeling versus Critical Systems Inventory Modeling
6.2.1 Traditional part-level inventory modeling
6.2.2 Safety stock
6.2.3 Repairable systems inventory
6.3 Single-Echelon Inventory Models
6.4 Multi-Echelon Inventory Models
6.4.1 METRIC
6.5 Cannibalization and Salvage
6.6 Shelf Life
6.7 End-item Inventory
References
Problems
7. Supply-Chain Management
7.1 The Supply Chain for Critical Systems
7.2 Supply-Chain Risks
7.2.1 Propagation of supply-chain risks
7.3 Part Sourcing Strategies
7.3.1 Sole sourcing
7.3.2 Single sourcing
7.3.3 Dual sourcing
7.3.4 Second sourcing
7.3.5 Multi sourcing
7.3.6 Parallel sourcing
7.4 Part Buffering
7.5 Aging Supply-Chain Challenges
7.5.1 Obsolescence
7.5.1.1 Reactive mitigation of obsolescence
7.5.1.2 Lifetime buys
7.5.1.3 Design refresh planning (DRP)
7.5.1.4 Non-hardware obsolescence
7.5.2 Counterfeit parts
7.5.3 Product allocation
7.5.4 Inventory aging
7.6 Supply-Chain Trust
7.6.1 Blockchain
References
Problems
8. System Sustainment Enablers
8.1 Workforce Aging Management
8.1.1 Workforce pool forecasting
8.2 System Redesign (and Refresh)
8.2.1 System capability refresh
8.3 Configuration Management
8.4 System Test and Qualification
8.4.1 Recurring functional test
8.4.2 Environmental testing
8.4.3 Accelerated life testing
8.4.4 Maintainability demonstration
8.4.5 Acceptance tests and certification
8.5 Cost–Benefit Analysis
8.5.1 Cost avoidance
8.5.2 Return on investment (ROI)
8.5.3 Should cost
8.5.4 A CBA analysis of unmanned drones versus aircraft
8.6 Analytic Hierarchy Process
8.7 Life Extension
8.7.1 Making life extension decisions
8.7.2 Managing systems that have been life extended (the impacts of life extensions)
8.8 System End-of-life
8.8.1 End of maintenance (EOM)
8.8.2 Decommissioning
8.8.3 Fleet retirement
References
Problems
9. Contracting for Sustainment
9.1 Transactional Contracting for Sustainment
9.2 Outcome-based Contracting for Sustainment
9.3 Contract Types
9.4 Implementation of Outcome-Based Contracts
9.5 Performance Metrics
9.6 Modeling Contracts for Availability
9.7 Intellectual Property and Technical Data Package Ownership
9.8 The Benefits and Challenges of Outcome-based Contracts
9.8.1 Benefits
9.8.2 Exploring the challenges with OBCs
References
Problem
10. Epilogue – The Future of System Sustainment
10.1 Additive Manufacturing for Sustainment
10.2 Sustainable Sustainment
10.3 Digital Twins
10.4 Options-based System Sustainment
10.4.1 Technical data package procurement
10.4.2 Design refresh planning
10.4.3 Predictive maintenance options
10.5 Final Comments on Sustainment
References
Appendix A. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A.1 Engineering Economics
A.2 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
A.2.1 The cost of equity
A.2.2 The cost of debt
A.2.3 Calculating the WACC
A.2.4 Comments on WACC
A.3 Inflation
References
Problems
Appendix B. Monte Carlo Analysis
B.1 Uncertainty Modeling
B.2 Representing the Uncertainty in Parameters
B.3 Monte Carlo Analysis
B.3.1 How does Monte Carlo work?
B.3.2 Random sampling values from known distributions
B.3.3 Random sampling from a data set
B.3.4 Implementation challenges with Monte Carlo analysis
B.4 Sample Size Estimation
B.5 Example Monte Carlo Analysis
B.6 Stratified Sampling (Latin Hypercube)
B.6.1 Building a Latin hypercube sample (LHS)
B.6.2 Comments on LHS
B.7 Discussion
References
Problems
Appendix C. Discrete-Event Simulation (DES)
C.1 Events
C.2 Discrete-Event Simulation Examples
C.2.1 A trivial DES example
C.2.2 A less trivial DES example
C.2.3 Corrective maintenance spares calculation
C.2.4 Corrective and preventative maintenance events calculation
C.3 Discussion
References
Problems
Appendix D. Summary of Notation and Acronyms
Chapter 1: Introduction to Sustainment
Chapter 2: The Acquisition of Critical Systems
Chapter 3: System Failure
Chapter 4: Maintenance – Managing System Failure
Chapter 5: Availability and Readiness
Chapter 6: Sustainment Inventory Management
Chapter 7: Supply-Chain Management
Chapter 8: System Sustainment Enablers
Chapter 9: Contracting for Sustainment
Chapter 10: Epilogue – The Future of System Sustainment
Appendix A: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Appendix B: Monte Carlo Analysis
Appendix C: Discrete-Event Simulation (DES)
Index
