Powerful solar explosions, such as flares and coronal mass ejections, greatly disturb the electromagnetic environment around the Earth and the atmosphere. They may even impact various social systems―communications, positioning, electric power supply, aviation and activities in space. Such variations in the space environment, which can influence human activities, are called “space weather.” The space weather disaster caused by a solar explosion is a potential risk in modern society. To reduce and mitigate space weather impacts, it is essential to understand the structure and dynamics of the solar–terrestrial environment and to predict the variations.
This book comprehensively describes space weather, from the basics of related sciences to the possible social impacts. It was compiled based on a national research project on solar–terrestrial environment prediction conducted in Japan recently. It consists of four parts: the linkage between space weather and society; the magnetosphere of the Earth and space weather prediction; solar storms and space weather prediction; and long-term prediction of solar cycle activity and climate impacts.
Each chapter covers the basics and applications of each area, which helps readers gain a broad understanding of the subject matter throughout the book. In addition, readers are able to select and read the topics they are most interested in. It is especially valuable for undergraduate and graduate students and young researchers studying space weather and related topics, and is further helpful for experts in various industries related to space weather disasters. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). The present version has been revised technically and linguistically by the authors in collaboration with a professional translator.
Author(s): Kanya Kusano
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 469
City: Singapore
Preface
Contents
Contributors
Abbreviations
Part I: Relation Between Space Weather and Society
Chapter 1: Social Impacts of Space Weather
Chapter 2: Impact of Space Weather on Various Fields
2.1 Telecommunication and Satellite Navigation
2.1.1 Structure of Ionosphere
2.1.2 Communication and Broadcasting
2.1.2.1 Impacts on High-Frequency Radio Waves
2.1.2.2 Impacts on Very High-Frequency Communication
2.1.2.3 Impact on Ultrahigh-Frequency Communication
2.1.3 Positioning
2.1.3.1 Satellite Positioning and Error Factors
2.1.3.2 GNSS Positioning Methods and Ionospheric Effects
2.1.3.3 GNSS Applications in Air Navigation
2.1.3.4 Occurrence Frequencies of Ionospheric Phenomena that Degrade Positioning Accuracy
2.2 Electric Power
2.2.1 Introduction
2.2.2 Impacts of GIC on High-Voltage Transmission Network
2.2.3 Prevention of Hazards Due to GIC
2.2.3.1 United States of America
2.2.3.2 Canada
2.2.3.3 United Kingdom
2.2.3.4 Finland
2.2.3.5 European Union
2.2.3.6 Australia
2.2.3.7 Japan
2.2.4 Causes of GIC
2.2.4.1 Sun
2.2.4.2 Solar Wind
2.2.4.3 Magnetospheric and Ionospheric Currents
2.2.4.4 Geomagnetically Induced Electric Field
2.2.4.5 Geomagnetically Induced Currents
2.2.5 Forecast of GIC
2.2.5.1 Sun
2.2.5.2 Solar Wind
2.2.5.3 Magnetospheric and Ionospheric Currents (Geomagnetic Variations)
2.2.5.4 Geomagnetically Induced Electric Field
2.2.5.5 Geomagnetically Induced Currents
2.2.6 Summary
2.3 Satellites
2.3.1 Surface Charging
2.3.2 Internal Charging
2.3.3 Single-Event Effects
2.3.4 Total Dose Effect/Cumulative Dose Effect
2.3.5 Others (Material Degradation and Property Changes in Space Environment)
2.4 Exposure to Cosmic Radiation
2.4.1 Introduction
2.4.2 Regulation for Aircrew Exposure
2.4.3 Mechanism of Aircrew Exposure
2.4.4 Aircrew Dose Assessment Models
2.4.5 Examples of Aircrew Dose Rates Estimated by WASAVIES
2.4.6 Summary
2.5 Atmospheric Drag
2.5.1 Introduction
2.5.2 Basis 1: Orbits of Objects Orbiting the Earth
2.5.3 Basis 2: Change in Trajectory Due to External Force
2.5.4 Factors That Determine Magnitude of Atmospheric Drag
2.5.5 Variation in Thermospheric Atmospheric Density and its Contribution to Atmospheric Drag
2.5.6 Influence of Atmospheric Drag on Space Utilization
2.5.6.1 Lifetime of Satellite
2.5.6.2 Satellite Tracking
2.5.6.3 Prediction of Collisions with Satellites and Space Debris
2.5.6.4 Analysis of Atmospheric Entry
2.5.6.5 Satellite Attitude
2.5.7 Conclusion: Prediction Models for Thermospheric Variability
References
Chapter 3: Severe Space Weather Disasters
3.1 Scale and Occurrence Rate of Space Weather Disasters
3.2 Actions of National and International Organizations for Space Weather Disasters
3.2.1 National Activities
3.2.2 Activities of International Organizations
3.3 Social Impacts of Space Weather Phenomena
References
Part II: Geospace and Space Weather Forecast
Chapter 4: Introduction of Space Weather Research on Magnetosphere and Ionosphere of the Earth
4.1 Structures of and Variations in Magnetosphere and Ionosphere of the Earth
4.2 Measurement of Magnetosphere and Ionosphere of the Earth
References
Chapter 5: Space Radiation
5.1 Time Variations in Radiation Belts
5.1.1 Average Variations in Radiation Belt Electrons
5.1.1.1 Transient Variations of Approximately Minutes to 1 h
5.1.1.2 Variations During Substorms
5.1.1.3 Changes During Magnetic Storms
5.1.1.4 Semiannual and Solar Cycle Variations
5.2 Solar Wind-Radiation Belt Coupling
5.2.1 Solar Wind Parameter Dependence
5.2.2 Solar Wind Structure Dependence
5.3 Acceleration Mechanisms
5.3.1 Adiabatic Acceleration Process
5.3.2 Nonadiabatic Acceleration Process
5.4 Loss Mechanisms
5.4.1 Magnetopause Boundary Loss
5.4.2 Loss Due to Wave-Particle Interactions
5.5 Forecast of Radiation Belt Electrons
References
Chapter 6: Geomagnetic Variability and GIC
6.1 Mechanism of GIC Generation
6.2 GIC Observations
6.3 Magnetospheric Ionospheric Current Systems and Geomagnetic Field Fluctuations
6.3.1 Convection Electric Field, R1FAC, and Shielding Electric Field, R2FAC
6.3.2 Quasiperiodic DP2 Magnetic Field Fluctuations and Substorms
6.3.3 Storm Main Phase Electric Field and DP2 Currents
6.3.4 Wave Phenomena in the Magnetosphere
6.3.5 Geomagnetically Induced Currents
6.3.6 Mechanism of Current Flow from Magnetosphere to Low-Latitude and Equatorial Ionosphere
References
Chapter 7: Ionospheric Variability
7.1 Propagation of Radio Waves in Ionosphere
7.1.1 Introduction
7.1.2 Reflection and Refraction of Radio Waves in Ionosphere
7.1.3 Propagation Delay of Radio Waves in Ionosphere
7.1.4 Absorption of Radio Waves in Ionosphere
7.1.5 Scintillation
7.2 Ionospheric Changes Caused by Solar Flares
7.2.1 Introduction
7.2.2 Examples of Solar Radiation Variations (X9.3 Flare in September 2017)
7.2.3 Absorption of Solar Radiation by Upper Atmosphere and Change in Ionization Rate
7.2.4 Ionospheric Variability
7.2.5 Variations in Thermosphere
7.2.6 Conclusion
7.3 Ionospheric Variations Associated with Geomagnetic Storms
7.3.1 Introduction
7.3.2 Ionospheric Storms
7.3.3 Evaluation of Magnitudes of Ionospheric Storms
7.3.4 Large-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances
7.3.5 Thermospheric Disturbances and Atmospheric Drag
7.3.6 Conclusion
7.4 Ionospheric Variations in Polar Regions
7.4.1 Recent Observations of Scintillation Associated with Aurora
7.4.2 Mechanism of Polar Cap Patch Generation and its Relation to TOI/SED
7.4.3 Ionospheric Irregular Structure and Scintillation Associated with Polar Cap Patches
7.4.4 Polar Cap Absorption
7.5 Medium-Scale Propagating Ionospheric Disturbances
7.5.1 Introduction
7.5.2 MSTIDs During Daytime
7.5.3 MSTIDs During Nighttime
7.6 Plasma Bubbles
7.6.1 Introduction
7.6.2 Rayleigh-Taylor Instability
7.6.3 Characteristics of Plasma Bubble Generation
7.6.4 Increase in Eastward Electric Field at Sunset
7.6.5 Prediction of Plasma Bubble Occurrence by Numerical Model
7.7 Sporadic E Layers
7.7.1 Introduction
7.7.2 Effects on Radio Wave Propagation
7.7.3 Characteristics and Observations of es Layers
7.7.4 Generation Mechanism: Wind Shear Theory
References
Part III: Solar Storms and Space Weather Forecast
Chapter 8: Structure of Solar Atmosphere and Magnetic Phenomena
8.1 Solar Constant and Overall Structure of Solar Atmosphere
8.2 Photosphere: Interaction of Convection and Magnetic Fields
8.3 Chromosphere: From Gas-Dominated to Magnetic Field-Dominated
8.4 Corona and Solar Wind: Hot Atmosphere Dominated by Magnetic Fields
8.5 Solar Winds and Heliosphere
8.6 CMEs Recorded in Recovered Samples from Space
8.6.1 Introduction
8.6.2 Analytical Method for Solar Wind Implanted in Solids
8.6.3 Measurements of Solar Wind Collected in Space
8.6.4 Conclusion
References
Chapter 9: Origin of Solar Storms
9.1 Solar Storm Observation Network
9.1.1 Capturing Electromagnetic Radiation from Flare
9.1.1.1 Ground-Based Hα Monitoring Observations
9.1.1.2 Observation of X-Rays from Space
9.1.1.3 Observation of the Solar Surface Magnetic Field
9.1.2 Capturing Mass Ejections from the Sun
9.1.2.1 Imaging Coronal Mass Ejections
9.1.2.2 Capturing Motions of Erupted Filaments
9.1.2.3 Type-II Burst in Radio Waves
9.1.2.4 Interplanetary Scintillation
9.1.2.5 In Situ Observations in Interplanetary Space
9.1.3 Capturing High-Energy Particles from the Sun
9.2 Flare Emission
9.2.1 Effects of Flare Emission on Space Weather
9.2.1.1 Solar Flare Emission
9.2.1.2 Flare Emissions Affecting the Ionosphere of Earth
9.2.1.3 Observation of Flare Emissions
9.2.1.4 Models of Flare Emission Spectra
9.2.2 Statistical Properties of Flare Emissions
9.2.2.1 Example of Flare Emission Observations
9.2.2.2 Statistical Properties of Flare Emissions (Particularly EUV Emissions)
9.2.2.3 Relationship between Geometry of Flare Loop and Flare Emission
9.2.3 Flare Emission Model
9.2.3.1 Construction of Flare Emission Model
9.2.3.2 Comparison of Calculation Results of Solar Flare Emission Model with Observations
9.2.4 Summary and Future Studies
9.3 Coronal Mass Ejections
9.3.1 History of CME Observations
9.3.2 CME Rate
9.3.3 Halo CME
9.4 Solar Energetic Particles
9.4.1 SEP Observation
9.4.2 Impulsive SEPs and Gradual SEPs
9.4.3 Gradual SEPs and CMEs
References
Chapter 10: Prediction of Solar Storms
10.1 Formation of Flare-Productive Active Regions
10.1.1 Sunspot Classification and Flare Activity
10.1.2 Structures of Flare-Productive Active Regions
10.1.3 Formation of Flare-Productive Active Regions
10.1.4 Summary and Future Perspectives
10.2 Prediction of Solar Flares
10.2.1 What to Predict
10.2.2 Methods of Prediction
10.2.3 Empirical Prediction
10.2.4 Physics-Based Prediction
10.2.5 Evaluation of Prediction
10.3 Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections
10.3.1 Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Wind
10.3.2 ICMEs and Space Weather Disturbances
10.3.3 Solar Wind and CME Arrival Prediction Models
10.4 Prediction of Solar Energetic Particles
10.4.1 Introduction
10.4.2 Prediction Based on Transport Model
10.4.3 Prediction Based on Acceleration and Transport Model
10.4.4 Summary
References
Chapter 11: Explorations of Extreme Space Weather Events from Stellar Observations and Archival Investigations
11.1 Superflares on Solar-Type Stars
11.1.1 What Is Superflare?
11.1.2 Discovery of Superflares on Solar-Type Stars Based on Kepler Space Telescope Data
11.1.3 Detailed Investigations by Spectroscopic Observations and Gaia Satellite Observation Data
11.1.4 Star Spot Sizes and Superflare Energies
11.1.5 Changes in Superflare Activity with Stellar Rotation and Age
11.1.6 Do Superflares Occur on the Sun?
11.1.7 Effects of Superflares on Planets (1)
11.1.8 Effects of Superflares on Planets (2)
11.1.8.1 Faint Young Sun Paradox
11.1.8.2 Effects of Young Sun Superflares on Earth
11.1.8.3 Formation of Environment Suitable for Birth of Life
11.1.8.4 Effects of Superflares on Exoplanetary Systems
11.1.9 Future Superflare Research
11.2 Extreme Space Weather Events in History
11.2.1 Introduction
11.2.2 Carrington Event
11.2.3 Extreme Space Weather Events Captured in the Early Modern Observations
11.2.4 Extreme Space Weather Events Recorded in Early Modern Observations and Historical Records
11.2.5 Space Weather Events Forgotten in Historical Documents
11.2.6 Reconstructions of Ancient and Medieval Space Weather Events
11.2.7 Conclusion
References
Part IV: Prediction of Solar Cycle Activity and Its Impact on Climate
Chapter 12: Eleven-Year Cycle of Solar Magnetic Activity: Observations, Theories, and Numerical Model Predictions
12.1 Sunspots and Their Eleven-Year Cycle
12.1.1 Discovery of Sunspots and Their Eleven-Year Cycle
12.1.2 Beginning of Astrophysical Observations
12.2 Solar Dynamo
12.2.1 Development of Plasma Physics (Magnetohydrodynamics) and Classical Dynamo Theory
12.2.2 Age of Chaos
12.2.3 Magnetic Flux Transport Dynamo
12.2.4 Models for Thermal Convection
12.3 Prediction of Solar-Cycle Amplitude by Numerical Modeling
12.3.1 Solar Cycle Activity Prediction and its Social Demand
12.3.2 Previous Studies on Periodic Activity Prediction
12.3.3 Relationship Between Magnetic Field of Polar Regions During Solar Minimum and Next Cycle Activity
12.3.4 Solar Surface Flux Transport Model
12.3.5 Future Issues in Solar Cycle Activity Prediction Research
References
Chapter 13: Solar Activity in the Past and Its Impacts on Climate
13.1 Long-Term Variations in Solar Irradiance and Ultraviolet Radiation and Their Estimation
13.2 Detailed Analyses of Past Solar and Cosmic-Ray Variations
13.3 Solar Influence on Climate Observed in Paleoclimate Data
References
Chapter 14: Effects of Solar Activity on the Upper Atmosphere
14.1 Effects of Solar Activity on the Upper Atmosphere
14.1.1 Variations in the Upper Atmosphere (Thermosphere)
14.1.2 Solar Radiation Variability Causing Changes in the Upper Atmosphere
14.1.3 Temperature Changes in the Thermosphere
14.1.4 Changes in Density and Composition of the Thermosphere
14.1.5 Wind System Changes in the Thermosphere
14.1.6 Thermospheric Changes During Geomagnetic Disturbances
14.2 Impacts of Variation in Solar Activity on the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere
14.2.1 Temperature Distributions in the Mesosphere and Thermosphere
14.2.2 Zonal and Meridional Wind Distributions in the Mesosphere and Thermosphere
14.2.3 Temperature Changes Due to Variations in the Solar and Geomagnetic Activities
14.2.4 Wind Changes Due to Variations in the Solar and Geomagnetic Activities
14.2.5 Changes in Minor Constituents Due to the Solar and Geomagnetic Activities
14.2.6 Impacts of the Solar Activity on the Stratosphere and Mesosphere
References
Chapter 15: Impacts of Solar Activity Variations on Climate
15.1 Climate Impact Assessment of Solar Activity Variations Using a Hierarchy of Numerical Models
15.2 Earth System Model Simulation of Climate Impacts of Solar Activity Variations
15.3 Climate Impact Assessment of Solar Activity Variations by Recent Studies
References
Afterword
