Political shocks have come to be considered highly salient for explaining major changes to international politics and to the foreign policies of states. Such shocks can occur at all levels of analysis: domestically, dyadically, regionally, or globally. They range from political phenomena such as coups and wars to ecological catastrophes. These shocks are sufficiently disruptive to cause foreign policy makers to reconsider their foreign policy orientations and to contemplate major changes to their policies. In fact, some have argued that it is mostly through political shocks that fundamental policy change occurs in most states. No wonder then that political shocks are now increasingly part of the toolbox of considerations used by foreign policy and international relations scholars as they focus on understanding patterns of conflict and cooperation between states.
Given the salience of political shocks to understand foreign policy change, this book brings together a group of both senior and more junior scholars whose previous work has shown substantial promise for moving forward theory and empirical analysis. Their combined efforts in this book highlight the value of multiple theoretical and empirical approaches to a clearer understanding of the nature of political shocks and their consequences for foreign policy and international politics.
Author(s): William R. Thompson, Thomas J. Volgy
Series: Evidence-Based Approaches to Peace and Conflict Studies, 11
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 257
City: Singapore
Contents
Contributors
Shocks, Windows of Opportunity, and Outcomes
References
The State of the Field on Political Shocks: A Review of (Mostly) Quantitative Literature
1 Introduction
2 Conceptual Approaches in the Literature on Political Shocks
3 The Concept of Political Shock in the Literature
4 Moving from Conceptualization to Identifying Shocks Empirically
5 Theoretical Approaches Regarding the Effects of Political Shocks
6 Political Shocks…Where Do We Go From Here?
References
Political Shocks and the Punctuated Equilibrium Model: Applications to the Evolution of Norms in the Americas
1 Introduction
2 The Punctuated Equilibrium Model
3 Shocks and the PE Model Within International Relations Research
4 The Process of Political Shocks in the Punctuated Equilibrium Model
4.1 Agenda Setting
4.2 Policy Formulation
4.3 Crystallization
4.4 Consolidation
5 The Punctuated Equilibrium Model, Shocks, and Norm Development in the Americas
5.1 Agenda Setting
5.2 Policy Formulation
5.3 Crystallization
5.4 Consolidation
6 Conclusion
References
A Framework for Analyzing Political Shocks and Their Effects
1 Introduction
2 The Need to Reconceptualize Political Shocks
3 A Framework for Analyzing Political Shocks and Foreign Policy Change
4 Political Shocks and Their Operationalization
5 Respect for Human Rights: An Illustration of Political Shock Effects
6 A Look Back at the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
6.1 A Political Shock for Ukraine?
6.2 A Political Shock for the Russian Federation?
6.3 Aftershocks to Other States?
7 Conclusions and Caveats
References
Role Theory and Political Shocks
1 Introduction
2 Change, Shocks, and Foreign Policy
3 Political Shocks and Role Theory
4 Illustrative Cases from Latin America
4.1 The Malvinas/Falkland Shock
4.2 The Populist Shock in Brazil
5 Conclusion
References
Populist Leadership, Economic Shocks, and Foreign Policy Change
1 Introduction
2 How Populist Leadership Provokes (and Defies?) Economic Shocks
3 Case Selection and Method
4 Case Studies
4.1 From Cooperation to Autonomy: Turkey and the IMF Under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
4.2 Néstor Kirchner’s Defiant Sovereign Debt Restructuring
4.3 Rafael Correa’s Pragmatic Turn in Ecuador’s Trade Relations with the European Union
4.4 Viktor Orbán’s ‘War of Liberation’ Against the IMF
4.5 Alexis Tsipras’ Capitulation to Foreign Creditors
4.6 The M5S/Lega Coalition’s ‘Battle for the Budget’ with the European Commission
5 Comparative Observations
6 Conclusion
References
Tie-Capacity Shocks and the Resilience of International Trade and Alliance Networks
1 Introduction
2 Shocks and Networks: State-of-the-Art
3 Theory: Shocks and International Networks
3.1 Network Formation: Models and Process
3.2 Rewiring
3.3 Shocks
3.4 Post-shock Reorganization
4 Agent-Based Model of Shocks and International Networks
4.1 Utilities for Different Network Formation Models
4.2 Rewiring Phase
4.3 Shocks: Characteristics and Process
4.4 Post-shock Re-organization
4.5 Theoretical Expectations
5 Empirical Methods
5.1 Data
5.2 Measuring Shocks in Real-World Networks
5.3 Estimating Shock Effects
5.4 Inference
6 Results
6.1 Nodal/State-Level Comparisons
6.2 Network-Level Comparisons
7 Discussion
References
Domestic Shocks and Prospect Theory
1 Introduction
2 Prospect Theory
3 Prospect Theory and Domestic Shocks
3.1 The Domain of Losses: Friends to Enemies
3.2 The Domain of Gains: Cautious Until Certain
3.3 Foreign Policy Through the Lens of Prospect Theory
References
Political Elite Structures in Arab Uprisings (2011 And On) and Foreign Policy Ramifications
1 Introduction
2 The Arab Uprisings Phenomena
3 Previous Modeling of the 2011 Uprisings
4 The Thompson and Mansour Model: Rationale and Influences
5 Testing the Thompson-Mansour Model
6 Foreign Policy Changes
7 In Lieu of Concluding: Political Elites and More Waves of Uprisings
References
Chinese Strategic Thinking and the Idea of Shocks: Old Literature, New Application?
1 Introduction
2 The Idea of Shocks
3 The Nature of Strategic Culture
4 Conclusion
References
Globalization Shocks and Foreign Military Intervention
1 Globalization and Globalization Shocks
2 Shocks and Foreign Military Intervention
3 Research Design
3.1 Dependent Variables: Types of Military Intervention
3.2 Independent Variables: Globalization and Globalization Shocks
3.3 Control Variables
4 Empirical Results
5 Conclusions
References
Index
