Research on China’s Monetary Policy System and Conduction Mechanism

Main Members of the Research Group
Preface
Contents
1 Economic Growth, Market-Oriented Reform, and Monetary Policy in China
1.1 Socialist Market Economy and Economic Growth
1.1.1 Long-Term Economic Growth After Reform and Opening Up
1.1.2 Development Strategy in the Twenty-First Century
1.2 Market-Oriented Reform and Macroeconomic Policy
1.3 Macroeconomic Policy Adjustment After the Financial Crisis in Asia
1.4 Joint Share System Reform and Monetary Policy of State-Owned Commercial Banks
1.5 Establish a Socialist Market Economy System
2 Adjustment of Macro Policies and Monetary Policies Effect After the Global Financial Crisis
2.1 China’s Economic Growth Imbalance Under the Impact of Financial Crisis
2.2 Major Measures Taken by Chinese Government in Response to the Global Financial Crisis
2.3 Effects of Proactive Fiscal Policy and Moderately Easy Monetary Policy
3 Macroeconomic Regulatory System and Monetary Policy Reconstruction Under the Integrative Situation
3.1 The Defects of Current Macro-Control System Defects
3.2 Supply Shock, Demand Shock, and Economic Cycle Effect: An Empirical Analysis Based on Statistics of China
3.2.1 Introduction
3.2.2 Structure Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Its Identification
3.2.3 A Simplified Interpretation Model
3.2.4 Empirical Result
3.2.5 Conclusion
3.3 A New Macro-Control System: A Macro-Control System Based on the Aggregate Supply and Demand Model
3.3.1 Supply Management Policy
3.3.2 Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Framework Based on Aggregate Demand Model
3.3.3 The Specific Policies of China’s Macro-Control System Under Comprehensive Situation
Appendix 1: VAR Model Estimates Results
4 Research on China’s Monetary Policy Objectives
4.1 The Realistic Choice of the Ultimate Goal Framework of China’s Monetary Policy
4.1.1 The Formation of Monetary Policy Final Target Analysis Framework
4.1.2 The Microeconomic Basis of the Ultimate Goal of an Open Economy and Monetary Policy Analysis of the Economic Relations Involved in Several Issues
4.1.3 Suggestions on the Recent Orientation of China’s Monetary Policy
4.1.4 Conclusion
4.2 Inflation Expectations, Asset Substitution, and China’s Monetary Policy Orientation
4.2.1 Introduction
4.2.2 Inflation and Asset Price Increase Within the Framework of Asset Substitution
4.2.3 Policy Analysis and Recommendations
4.3 The Difficulties Encountered in the Current Anti-Inflation Monetary Policy in China
4.3.1 The Particularity of China’s Current Macroeconomic Imbalance Perplexes the Choice of Monetary Policy Objectives
4.3.2 The Particularity of the Causes of Inflation Pressure at Present in China Affects the Effectiveness of Positive Monetary Policy
4.3.3 The Particularity of the Constraints on the Choice of China’s Monetary Policy Restrains the Realization of the Effect of Monetary Policy
4.3.4 Restricted Choice of Monetary Policy Will Affect the Creation and Realization of Monetary Policy Effects
4.3.5 The Balance of Payments Imbalance Under the Condition of Opening up Affects the Tightening Effect of Monetary Policy
4.4 Welfare Analysis of the Ultimate Goal of Monetary Policy Under Discretionary Conditions
4.4.1 The Welfare Effects of Different Ultimate Target Under the Conditions of Discretion
4.4.2 Analysis of the Discretionary Monetary Policy Model
4.4.3 Monetary Policy Under Commitment Conditions and Hybrid Targeting
4.4.4 The Simulation Results of Discretionary Ultimate Targeting
Appendix 2
5 Research on Monetary Policy Tools in China
5.1 Research on Cash Input in China
5.1.1 Introduction
5.1.2 Normal Cash Requirements and Cash Leakage
5.1.3 The Model of the Amount of Cash Expenditure
5.1.4 The Forecast of Cash Input from 2010 to 2014
5.1.5 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
5.2 Dynamic Simulation Analysis of Optimal Monetary Policy and Asset Adequacy of Banking Sector
5.2.1 Introduction
5.2.2 Model and Research Results
5.3 China’s Banks Listed Financing, Credit Expansion and Monetary Policy
5.3.1 Introduction
5.3.2 Relevant Literature Review
5.3.3 Theoretical Model Constructions
5.3.4 Empirical Model Constructions and Data Processing
5.3.5 Quantitative Analysis
5.3.6 Conclusion
Appendix 3
6 Research on the Effects of China’s Monetary Policy
6.1 Effects of Monetary Policy from the Influence of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth
6.1.1 The Debate About the Effects of Monetary Policy
6.1.2 Theoretical Basis
6.1.3 An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of China’s Monetary Policy on Economic Growth
6.1.4 Conclusions and Recommendations
6.2 The Asymmetric Effect of China’s Monetary Policy
6.2.1 Introduction and Theoretical Review
6.2.2 Domain Variation Characteristics of M1 and M2 Viewing from Simple Statistics
6.2.3 Markov Regime-Switching Model of M1 and M2
6.2.4 The Effect of an Unpredicted Money Supply Shock on Real GDP
6.2.5 Conclusion
6.3 A Numerical Analysis of the Regional Effect of Monetary Policy in China
6.3.1 Introduction
6.3.2 Evaluation of Traditional Numerical Analysis Methods
6.3.3 Measuring Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: Dynamic Monetary Policy Multiplier
6.3.4 Conclusion and Further Study
6.4 The “Passivity” Effect of China’s Monetary Policy
6.4.1 China’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
6.4.2 The Characteristics of Money Supply in China
6.4.3 Conclusion
7 Empirical Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in China
7.1 Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy
7.1.1 Research Model and Empirical Research Method
7.1.2 Empirical Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Interest Rate
7.1.3 Conclusions and Recommendations
7.2 Credit Transmission Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy
7.2.1 The Evolution of the Status and Function of Credit Transmission Mechanism in China’s Monetary Policy System
7.2.2 An Empirical Test of Credit Transmission Mechanism in China
7.2.3 The Efficiency Loss of Credit Transmission Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy
7.2.4 Conclusions and Recommendations
7.3 Asset Price Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in China
7.3.1 Securities Price Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in China
7.3.2 Research on the Incorporation of Financial Asset Prices into Monetary Policy Targets in China
7.4 Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy
7.4.1 Theoretical Analysis of the Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy
7.4.2 An Empirical Test of the Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism of china’s Monetary Policy
7.4.3 The Influencing Factors that Block the Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism in China
7.4.4 Conclusion
References