This book addresses ways that governments, international organizations, and other stakeholders can utilize data to uncover illicit trade in materials and equipment that could be used to support chemical, biological, nuclear, and advanced conventional weapons systems. Key concepts of strategic trade are introduced, including examples of strategic goods and their potential uses in weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and weapons systems, the interplay between the Harmonized System and strategic trade control regimes, and the data available for analysis in the field. Innovative, yet practical methodologies to analyze strategic trade cover the use of crime scripts, risk assessment indicators, mirror statistics, market share analysis, and transshipment and re-export analysis. There are also chapters on leading-edge techniques involving machine learning and network analysis that have shown promise in other areas of crime and illicit trade investigations. Each chapter provides step-by-step instructions on applying the technique, numerous case studies and examples, and discussions of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This volume is designed to provide all types of analysts with practical pathways for understanding, detecting, and disrupting illicit procurement of materials and equipment needed to produce WMDs and advanced weapons.
Author(s): Christopher Nelson
Series: Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 190
City: Cham
Preface
Keywords
Contents
About the Author
Chapter 1: Introduction
References
Chapter 2: Introduction to Strategic Trade Analysis
2.1 The International Trade Analysis Landscape
2.2 What Is Strategic Trade?
2.3 Development of Strategic Trade Obligations and Initiatives
2.4 STA Stakeholders
2.5 The Need for Strategic Trade Analysis
2.5.1 Lower Priority Relative to Other Security Concerns
2.5.2 Volume of International Trade
2.5.3 Nature of Strategic Goods
2.5.4 Regulatory and Jurisdictional Issues
2.5.5 Wide Range of Parties Involved in Transactions
2.5.6 Data and Strategic Goods Detection
2.6 Conclusion
References
Chapter 3: Fundamental Systems of Strategic Trade Analysis
3.1 The Harmonized System
3.2 Strategic Trade Controls and ECCNs
3.3 Correlation Between the HS and STCs
3.3.1 Connecting the Dots Through Correlation Tables
3.4 Evolving Nomenclatures and HS2022 Amendments
3.5 Data Availability for STA
References
Chapter 4: Introduction to STA Methodologies
4.1 Script for Illicit Strategic Trade
4.2 Strategic Trade Risk Assessment
4.3 Mirror Statistics
4.4 Market Share Analysis
4.5 Transshipment and Re-export Analysis
4.6 Machine Learning
4.7 Network Analysis
4.8 Applications of Strategic Trade Analysis
Chapter 5: Scripting an Illicit Strategic Trade Transaction
5.1 Scripting Process
5.2 Script for an Illicit Strategic Goods Transaction
5.2.1 Act I—Arranging the Acquisition
5.2.2 Act II—Purchase and Pre-shipment Arrangements
5.2.3 Act III—Transport
5.3 Using the Script
References
Chapter 6: Strategic Trade Risk Assessment
6.1 Transaction-Level Risk Indicators
6.2 Risk Indicators Based on Historical Data
6.3 Advanced Risk Assessment Indicators
6.4 Examples of Adding Layers to Risk Indicators
6.4.1 Keyword Searches and Commodity-Specific Monikers
6.4.2 Restricted Entity Lists
6.5 Application of Risk Indicators
6.5.1 Integration into Customs Risk Management Systems (CRMs)
6.5.2 Reviewing Past Transactions
6.6 Pros and Cons
6.6.1 Pros
6.6.2 Cons
6.7 Conclusion
References
Chapter 7: Mirror Statistics
7.1 Differences in Reported Trade Data
7.2 What Can Mirror Statistics Tell Us?
7.3 Process
7.3.1 Identify the Target Strategic Good(s)
7.3.2 Identify Trade Partner(s) and Flows of Interest
7.3.3 Gathering Trade Data
7.3.4 Analysis—What Are We Looking For?
7.3.5 Complementary Research
7.4 Example Cases
7.4.1 Canadian Exports of Heavy Water
7.4.2 Nuclear Cooperation Between South Korea and the United Arab Emirates
7.5 Mirror Statistics: Pros and Cons
7.5.1 Pros
7.5.2 Cons
7.6 Conclusion
References
Chapter 8: Market Share Analysis
8.1 Global Market Share
8.1.1 Identify the HS Codes for the Strategic Goods We Want to Measure
8.1.2 Select the Scope of the Market Share Assessment
8.1.3 Gather Harmonized Statistical Trade Data Within the Scope for the Selected HS Codes
8.1.4 Calculate Market Share
8.2 Example Cases for Global Market Share Analysis
8.2.1 Global Export Market Share for Detonating Fuses
8.2.2 The Strategic Trade Atlas
8.3 Refining Market Share Through HS-ECCN Correlations
8.4 Market Share Analysis: Pros and Cons
8.4.1 Pros
8.4.2 Cons
8.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 9: Transshipment and Re-export Analysis
9.1 Examples of Transshipment/Re-export Leading to Diversion
9.2 STA Methods for Analyzing Transshipment and Re-exports
9.2.1 Transaction Flagging
9.2.2 Import–Export Matching
9.2.3 Transshipment/Re-export Estimation Methodology
9.3 Transshipment/Re-export Methodologies: Pros and Cons
9.3.1 Pros
9.3.2 Cons
9.4 Conclusion
References
Chapter 10: Machine Learning for Strategic Trade Analysis
10.1 Discussion of Machine Learning Terms
10.2 Examples of Machine Learning in Similar Domains
10.2.1 Case Study I—Using Decision Trees to Classify Customs Noncompliance
10.2.2 Case Study II—Clustering and Logistic Regression for Customs Targeting
10.2.3 Case Study III—DATE for Customs Fraud Detection
10.2.4 Summary of Case Studies
10.3 Before We Start—Training and Test Sets
10.4 Supervised Classification with Resampling
10.4.1 Data Collection and Preparation
10.4.2 SMOTE Resampling
10.4.3 Modeling with Random Forest
10.5 Unsupervised Learning Techniques
10.5.1 Isolation Forest for Outlier Detection
10.5.2 K-Means Clustering
10.6 Natural Language Processing
10.6.1 Text Preprocessing
10.6.2 Fuzzy Matching
10.6.3 Supervised Text Classification
10.7 Parameter Tuning and Feature Selection
10.8 Model Performance
10.9 Machine Learning: Pros and Cons
10.9.1 Pros
10.9.2 Cons
10.10 Conclusion
References
Chapter 11: Network Analysis
11.1 What Is Network Analysis Used For?
11.2 Network Concepts
11.2.1 Centrality Measures
11.2.2 Community Detection and Modularity
11.3 Constructing a Network
11.3.1 Data Sources for Network Analysis
11.3.2 Steps to Create a Network Diagram
11.4 Using Network Analysis for STA
11.4.1 Connecting the Dots
11.4.2 Facilitators
11.4.3 Industrial Capability Analysis
11.4.4 Temporal Analysis
11.4.5 Finding Disruption Points
11.5 Case Study: The Asher Karni Network
11.5.1 Facts of the Case
11.5.2 Preparing the Data
11.5.3 Karni Network Diagram
11.5.3.1 Focus on Order 4: Triggered Spark Gaps
11.6 Network Analysis: Pros and Cons
11.6.1 Pros
11.6.2 Cons
11.7 Conclusion
References
Chapter 12: Applying Strategic Trade Analysis
12.1 STA Application Areas
12.1.1 Strategic Trade Investigations
12.1.2 Understanding Strategic Trade Flows
12.1.3 Boost Correlation Efforts Between the HS and STC Lists
12.1.4 Strategic Capabilities Database
12.1.5 Unlicensed Trade in Strategic Goods: Pattern Recognition and Remediation
12.1.6 Post-clearance Audits, Future Targeting, and Additional Scrutiny
12.1.7 Enhanced Outreach Efforts
12.1.7.1 Supporting Domestic Outreach
12.1.7.2 Supporting International Outreach
12.1.7.3 Creating a Cycle of Improvement
12.2 Gaps in Strategic Trade Analysis
12.3 Areas of Future Research
12.4 Conclusion
References
