Since 1960, two-thirds of very large governmental projects in Nigeria have not only failed, but been abandoned mid-course. This presents a bigger failure rate than mega projects elsewhere, and yet there is no available data or analysis to help us understand the reasons behind such failures. This book provides an authoritative examination into why very large projects in Nigeria have failed so badly, and provides practical recommendations on how the Nigerian government can improve its project performance.
Drawing on data from 38 very large projects (19 completed and 19 abandoned) with a total budget of over $25B, this book presents detailed analysis of these projects and in-depth case studies 11 of the projects, and presents lessons for improvement. Through this, the authors have identified a small number of key success drivers, and argue that making moderate improvements on any of them would, on average, save hundreds of millions of dollars on one large project alone.
This book is a game-changer in the management of government mega projects in Nigeria. With clear implications for other developing economies, this is a vital resource for project management practitioners, executives and civil servants.
This is an open access book.
Author(s): Jimoh Ibrahim, Christoph Loch, Kishore Sengupta
Edition: 1
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 240
City: Cham
Tags: African Business' Project Management; Developing countries; Emerging economies; Project governance; Corruption; Large programmes; Nigeria
Preface
Contents
About the Authors
List of Figures
List of Tables
1: Introduction: The Project Abandonment Problem
References
2: What We Know About the Management of Very Large Projects
2.1 Project Success Factors as Lists
2.2 The Project Success Frameworks of Miller and Lessard and Morris and Hough
2.2.1 Miller and Lessard (2000)
2.2.2 Morris and Hough (1987)
2.3 The Nigerian Context
2.4 The Extended Theoretical Framework
2.5 What About Corruption?
References
3: Structure of the Investigation
3.1 Overview of the Approach Taken in This Study
3.2 Construction and Execution of the Survey
3.3 Construction of the Sample of Projects
3.4 Construction of the Case Studies
Appendix: Full Questionnaire as It Was Administered
Our Request
Project Variables
Section A: Background Information
Section B: We are asking 40 questions that relate to the methods and structures with which the project was managed. (Circle the number that corresponds to your reaction/estimation or fill out the text.)
A. Governance
B. Project Initiation
C. Project Execution
References
4: A Description of the 38 Matched Projects
4.1 Lagos-Ibadan Express Road
4.2 Lagos-Badagry Express Road
4.3 Third Mainland Bridge
4.4 Second Niger Bridge
4.5 Egbin Power Station
4.6 Calabar Power Station
4.7 Zungeru Hydropower Plant
4.8 Delta State (Oghareki) Power Plant
4.9 Shiroro Hydroelectric Power Station
4.10 Omoku Power Plant Station
4.11 Mambilla Hydroelectric Power
4.12 Ajaokuta Steel Project
4.13 Kanji Dam
4.14 Otukpo Dam
4.15 Nigeria Satellite 2
4.16 Nigeria Satellite 1
4.17 Airtel Nigeria
4.18 Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL)
4.19 Godswill Akpabio International Stadium
4.20 (Samuel) Ogbemudia Stadium
4.21 Abuja International Airport
4.22 Lagos MMA2 Airport
4.23 Yenagoa International Cargo Airport
4.24 Jigawa Airport Project
4.25 Tin Can Island Port
4.26 Calabar Seaport
4.27 Victoria Garden City (VGC) Housing Estate
4.28 Festac Town Federal Housing Estate
4.29 1004 Housing Estate
4.30 Abuja Mass Federal Housing Project
4.31 Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library
4.32 Abuja National Library
4.33 Nigerian Youth Empowerment Scheme (N-Power)
4.34 Nigeria Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P)
4.35 Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA)
4.36 Cleaner Lagos Initiative (Visionscape)
4.37 University College Teaching Hospital (UCH) Ibadan
4.38 University of Abuja Teaching Hospital (UATH)
References
5: Insights from the Analysis of the Questionnaires
5.1 Variable Distributions and Variable Capability to Detect Differences Across Projects
5.1.1 Each Respondent Type Adds Unique Perspectives and Information
5.1.2 The Variables Capture Robust Differences Between Abandoned and Completed Projects
5.2 Condensing Variables into Aggregated Success Factors
5.2.1 Approach
5.2.2 Identifying the Factors
5.3 Econometric Prediction of Project Completion
5.4 Econometric Prediction of Cost and Schedule Overruns for Completed Projects
5.4.1 Effect of Variables on Budget Overruns
5.4.2 Effect of Variables on Schedule Overruns
5.5 The Corrosive Effect of Corruption
Appendix 1 Correlations Among Independent Variables Across All 114 Responses
Appendix 2 Factor Analysis
Appendix 3 Specification of the Logistical Regression
Appendix 4 The Logistical Completion Probability Regression by Respondent Group
Appendix 5 Robustness Analysis: Cost Overrun Regressions by Respondent Group
Appendix 6 Robustness Analysis: Schedule Overrun Regressions by Respondent Group
6: Two Library Projects
6.1 The National Library of Nigeria in Abuja: An Abandoned Project
6.1.1 Project Initiation
6.1.2 Contract Signature and Execution
6.1.3 Conclusion
6.2 Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library: A Completed Project
6.2.1 Project Initiation
6.2.2 Project Execution and Outcome
6.2.3 The Difference Between the Two Projects: In the Words of Former President Obasanjo
References
7: Two Bridge Projects
7.1 The Second Niger Bridge: A Stalled Project
7.1.1 Project Initiation
7.1.2 Contract Disputes and Recontracting
7.1.3 Continued Stalling
7.1.4 Diagnosis of the Reasons for Failure, in the Words of (Former) President Jonathan
7.1.5 Conclusion
7.2 The Third Mainland Bridge: A Completed Project
7.2.1 Introduction
7.2.2 Starting and Stalling
7.2.3 Restarting the Project Under President Babangida
7.2.4 Project Execution and Outcome
7.2.5 Conclusion
References
8: Two Power Plants
8.1 Egbin Power Station, Ikorodu Lagos State: A Completed Project
8.1.1 Initiation and Completion
8.1.2 Success Conditions and Challenges
8.1.3 Privatization and Trouble
8.2 The Calabar Odukpani Power Station: Completed but with Little Delivery
8.2.1 Project Initiation
8.2.2 Project Complications and Delays
8.2.3 Delivery of the Calabar Power Station in 2015
8.2.4 What Has Been Delivered? Lessons from the Project
References
9: Two Express Road Rehabilitation Projects
9.1 The Lagos-Ibadan Express Road Rehabilitation: A Completed Project
9.1.1 Original Construction of the Express Road
9.1.2 A Reconstruction Project in a PPP Scheme
9.1.3 Restructuring the Project as a Government-Owned Project
9.1.4 Discussion
9.2 Lagos-Badagry Express Road Rehabilitation: A Stalled Project
9.2.1 Brief History
9.2.2 Was the Problem the Fault of the Contractor?
9.2.3 Dodgy Funding and Accounting
9.2.4 Protest, Additional Funding and Patching Up
9.2.5 Conclusion
References
10: Two More Power Plants
10.1 The Zungeru Dam/Hydropower Plant: A (Soon-to-Be) Completed Project
10.1.1 Brief History
10.1.2 Enabling Factors of Completion
10.2 The Delta State Oghareki Power Plant: An Abandoned Project
10.2.1 Initiation
10.2.2 The Alleged Corruption
10.2.3 Implications
References
11: The Ajaokuta Steel Project
11.1 Project Initiation
11.2 Project Construction and Cessation by 1988
11.3 The PPP Revival of 2000–2007
11.4 The State of the Asset
11.5 Conclusion
References
12: Insights and Recommendations
12.1 Summary and Discussion of the Findings
12.2 Developing Solutions: Inspiration from Other Countries
12.3 Recommendations
12.3.1 Recommendations Part 1: Short-Term Changes
12.3.1.1 Diagnostic Review of Abandoned or Stalled Projects
12.3.1.2 Resolving Funding Challenges
12.3.1.3 World Bank/IMF Assistance
12.3.2 Recommendations Part 2: Longer-Term Structural Changes
12.3.2.1 Element 1: High-Level Political Priorities
12.3.2.2 Element 2: Portfolio Planning and Budgeting
12.3.2.3 Element 3: Institutional Changes
12.3.2.4 Element 4: Project Execution in the New Ministry
12.3.2.5 Element 5: Audit Bureau
12.3.2.6 Element 6: Fraud Prosecution
13: Conclusion: The Government Responsibility
Index
