Global Logistics Network Modelling and Policy provides guidelines on quality policy, covering investments, management and planning for port and hinterland infrastructure, roads, railways and inland waterway ports. The book first describes the authors’ concept and formulation models, followed by a description and analysis of the applied data. As shipping companies fiercely compete in an effort to achieve greater efficiency and impact infrastructure policy and plan for the entire supply chain, they need tactics that drive quality transportation policy and new ways to model and simulate worldwide cargo movements, all while estimating demand and capacity of systems.
This book provides quantitative tools for modeling, analysis, and simulation of worldwide, inter-modal cargo movement – helping forecast the impacts of logistics and related policies in each region of the world. It covers useful applications for every region of the world, allowing policymakers to tailor results for their own specific uses.
Author(s): Ryuichi Shibasaki, Hironori Kato, Cesar Ducruet
Publisher: Elsevier
Year: 2020
Language: English
Pages: 370
City: Amsterdam
Front Cover
Global Logistics Network Modelling and Policy: Quantification and Analysis for International Freight
Copyright
Contents
Contributors
Preface: Globalisation and global logistics
References
Part One: General introduction
1 Introduction to global container shipping market
Introduction: Containerisation and global logistics
Economic growth and container cargo movements
Port development and terminal operations
Terminal development and new port opening
Port management and terminal operations
Global maritime container shipping
Operational aspects of liner shipping services
The evolution of flow patterns
Conclusion
Appendix
References
2 A global analysis of hinterlands from a European perspective
Introduction
Historical origin of European hinterlands
Analysing global hinterlands in a contemporary context
Determinants of hinterland expansion and shrinkage
Variations in port choice behaviour
Large versus small shippers
Shippers versus freight forwarders
Intermodal connections
Borders and natural barriers
Traffic imbalances and empty container repositioning issues
Conclusion
References
3 Cross-border logistics practices, policies, and its impact
Introduction
Logistics performance and liner shipping connectivity
Logistics performance index a
Liner shipping connectivity index b
Trade facilitation, transport facilitation, and cross-border management
Trade facilitation c
Transport facilitation
TIR convention d
UNECE definition of transport facilitation e
One-stop border post f
Logistics infrastructure investment needs to 2030/2040
Logistics infrastructure investment needs to 2030 g
Logistics infrastructure investment needs to 2040 h, i
Conclusions
Appendix
References
4 Basics of container demand forecast
Introduction
Preparation
Target cargo setting
Target area and hinterland setting
Future economic scenarios
Step 1: Cargo attraction and generation
Relationship with GDP
Elasticity of GDP amount to cargo throughput
Step 2: Cargo distribution
Gravity model
Coordination of estimation errors: Present pattern method
Use of economic model as a substitute
Converting from value to weight basis
Step 3: Modal split
Logit model
Step 4: Route choice
Shipper’s route choice model
User equilibrium assignment based on Wardrop’s first principle
Carrier’s route choice model
Conclusion
References
Part Two: Model & data
5 Basic concept
Model concept
Entire structure of model
Other model features and future works
Structure of Part 2
References
6 Global maritime container shipping model
Model framework
Shipping time function
Navigation link
Loading link
Discharging, berthing, and transshipment link
Carrier choosing link
Shipping cost function
Navigating link
Loading, discharging, berthing, transshipment, and carrier choosing link
Estimation of ocean freight charge
Model performance
Unknown parameter estimation
Model calculation and convergence
Fitness to the observed transshipment throughput
Conclusion
References
7 Intermodal transport super-network model
Model framework
Regional land transport submodel
Generalised cost function
O/D link
Road link
Rail connecting link
Rail link
Ferry (inland waterway transport) link
Additional cost at the national border
Model calculation and convergence
Procedure of model calculation
Step 0: Initial iteration calculation ( n = 0)
Step 1: Recalculation of the LT submodel based on initial land cargo shipping demand ( n = 1)
Step 2: Repetitive calculation in nth iteration (if n is an even number)
Step 3: Repetitive calculation in nth iteration (if n is an odd number)
Step 4: Convergence check
Ocean freight charge calculation after Step 1
Unknown parameter estimation
Model calculation and observed convergence
Conclusion
References
8 Data [1] maritime container shipping and land transport network
Ports: Intersection between MCS and LT networks
Ports considered in simulation model
Estimation of transshipment and empty container amount
Parameter setting
Global MCS network
LS data
LSCs considered
Parameter setting
Regional LT network
LT network
Parameter setting
Conclusion
Appendices
References
9 Data [2] container shipping demand for the present and future
Present demand
Estimation of port-basis maritime container OD matrix
Regional aggregation
Division into port-basis OD matrix
Excluding the shipping demand transported by companies not included in the model
Estimation of TAZ-basis container(-equivalent) OD matrix
Regional-basis OD matrix
Division into country-basis OD matrix
Division into TAZ-basis OD matrix
Future demand
Conclusion
Appendix
References
Part Three: Application to the developing world
10 Central America: Small countries with active border-crossing transport on land
Introduction
Ports and maritime container cargo movements in Central America
Data
Ports
MCS network
HT network
Container cargo shipping demand (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Container cargo throughput
Land container flow
Container flow by LSCs
Policy simulations
Opening La Union port
Future forecast based on several liner shipping service network scenarios
Port scenario
LS scenario
Simulation results
Tariff increase in La Union port
Conclusion
References
11 Greater Mekong Subregion: Is the Mekong River shipping competitive with other modes?
Introduction
International container transport in Cambodia
Mekong River route (via Phnom Penh river port)
International road route to Vietnam (via Ho Chi Minh or Cai Mep port)
Own seaport route (via Sihanoukville port)
International road route through Thailand (via Laem Chabang port)
Container transport share of each route
Data
Ports and MCS network
HT network
Container cargo shipping demand (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Policy simulations
Base scenario
Improvement of existing IWT route
Use of new IWT route
Conclusion
References
12 South Asia: Impact simulations of logistics projects in India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka
Introduction
Ports and container cargo flow in South Asia
Data
Ports and MCS network
HT network
Container cargo shipping demand (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Transshipment containers at Colombo port
Container throughput in SAS ports and hinterland cargo flow
Policy simulations
Improvement of transshipment service at Colombo port
Construction of new transshipment hub in south India
Hinterland improvement in JNP
Ferry and rail improvements in south India and Sri Lanka
Multimodal use in HT in Bangladesh
New port construction in east coast India
Conclusion
References
13 Central Asia: Typical landlocked region across Eurasia n continent
Introduction
Gateway seaports and access routes of Central Asia
Far Eastern Russia and China
Baltic Sea and Black Sea coast (Russia, Baltic countries, and Georgia)
Arabian Sea coast (Iran and Pakistan)
D ata
Ports
Global MCS network
Regional HT network
Container shipping demand between regions (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Exported and imported container throughput in each port
Container flow in the HT network
Policy simulations
Decline of barriers in CAREC national border
New Eurasian rail connections from northeast China
New port operation and international rail connections in Pakistan
Conclusion
References
14 Pacific Islands: Small and dispersed ‘sea-locked’ islands
Introduction
Ports and maritime container cargo movement in the Pacific region
Data
Ports and MCS network
Container cargo shipping demand (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Policy simulations
Overview
Baseline scenario
Port underdevelopment scenario
Honolulu shipping service scenario
Vessel enlargement scenario
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References
15 Southern Africa: Overcoming corridor and border challenges for landlocked countries
Introduction
Regional seaports and land transport
Southern coast (South Africa)
Eastern coast (Tanzania and Mozambique)
Western coast (Namibia and Angola)
Data
Ports and MCS network
HT network
Estimation of container shipping demand (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Parameter estimation
Container throughput at seaports
Land container flow
Policy simulations
Construction of Kazungula Bridge
Renovation of TAZARA railway
Conclusion
References
16 Belt and Road Initiative: How does China’s BRI encourage the use of international rail transport across the Eurasian co ...
Introduction
International container railway services to/from China
D ata
MCS and LT networks
Cargo shipping demand between regions (OD matrix)
Calculation results
Modal split in MCS and LT
Container throughput at each port
Land cargo flow
Policy s imulation s
Promoting the CERE
Promoting the TITR
Conclusion
References
Conclusion
Author Index
Subject Index
Back Cover
