Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.
Author(s): Ed Albeverio
Edition: 1
Year: 2005
Language: English
Pages: 357
Tags: Математика;Нелинейная динамика;Теория хаоса;
3540286101......Page 1
Contents......Page 8
1.1 Why Study Xevents?......Page 17
1.2 What are Xevents? A First Approach......Page 18
1.3 What are Xevents? A Second Approach......Page 19
1.3.2 Dynamic Characterisation of Xevents......Page 20
1.3.4 Commonalities, Analogies, Universality......Page 21
1.3.5 Prediction, Anticipation and Management......Page 22
1.3.7 Building Models......Page 23
1.3.9 Risk......Page 24
1.4.2 Rationale......Page 25
1.4.3 The Articles......Page 26
1.5 Outlook: Research Programme......Page 33
References......Page 34
Part I: General Considerations......Page 35
2.1 The Representation of Extreme Events......Page 36
2.2 From Signs to Anticipation......Page 38
2.3 Descartes Rehabilitated......Page 40
2.4 Time, Clocks, Rhythms......Page 41
2.5 The Hybrid Solution......Page 43
2.6 Can a Computer Simulate Anticipation?......Page 50
2.7 A New Equilibrium......Page 51
2.8 A Holistic View......Page 55
References......Page 58
3.1 Introduction......Page 61
3.2 Statistical Extreme Value Theory......Page 62
3.3 Extremes in Continuous Time: Stochastic Processes, Random Fields......Page 66
3.4 Extremes and Statistical Mechanics......Page 75
3.5 Extremes and Dynamical Systems......Page 76
3.6 Mapping Singularities and Catastrophe Theory: How Can They Be Related to Xevents?......Page 77
References......Page 79
4.1 Introduction......Page 83
4.2 Prediction versus Predictability......Page 86
4.3 An Example: Turbulent Wind Gusts......Page 98
4.4 Conclusions......Page 104
References......Page 107
5.1 Introduction......Page 108
5.2 Exogenous and Endogenous Shocks in Social Networks......Page 110
5.3 Exogenous and Endogenous Shocks in Financial Markets......Page 122
5.4 Concluding Remarks......Page 127
References......Page 129
Part II: Scenarios......Page 133
6.1 Introduction......Page 134
6.2 Basic Mechanisms......Page 135
6.3 EEG and Epilepsy......Page 137
6.4 Nonlinear EEG Analysis......Page 139
6.5 Can Epileptic Seizures Be Anticipated?......Page 146
6.6 Can Epileptic Seizures Be Controlled?......Page 149
6.7 Conclusions......Page 151
References......Page 152
7.1 Introduction......Page 155
7.2 Extreme Events in the Geological Past......Page 156
7.3 Predictions and Forecasts on the Geological Timescale......Page 169
7.4 Research Perspectives......Page 171
References......Page 174
8.1 Introduction......Page 179
8.2 Atmospheric Scales......Page 180
8.3 Wind Extremes......Page 182
8.4 Precipitation Extremes......Page 191
8.5 Discussion......Page 196
References......Page 197
9.1 Introduction......Page 198
9.2 Gaussian Seas......Page 201
9.3 Refraction......Page 203
9.4 Refraction and Gaussian Seas......Page 206
9.5 Structure of the Density Fluctuations......Page 209
9.6 Implications for Wave Statistics......Page 213
9.7 Conclusions......Page 217
References......Page 218
10.1 Introduction......Page 220
10.2 The Search for Defects: Positrons in Solids......Page 221
10.4 Detection of Plastic Deformation......Page 226
10.5 Damage Prediction......Page 231
References......Page 239
11.1 Introduction......Page 242
11.2 General Opinion Dynamics......Page 243
11.3 Damage Spreading......Page 250
11.4 Discussion......Page 264
References......Page 265
12.1 Extreme Events in Complex Systems and Our Perception of Them......Page 267
12.2 A Short Survey of Scale-Free Networks......Page 269
12.3 Cameo Graphs......Page 270
12.4 How Extremists Determine the Structures of Scale-Free Graphs......Page 274
12.5 Spreading of Epidemics in Scale-Free Networks and Robustness Under Random Attack......Page 277
12.6 Conclusions and Outlook......Page 279
12.7 Appendix......Page 280
References......Page 281
Part III: Prevention, Precaution, and Avoidance......Page 283
13.1 Introduction......Page 284
13.2 Risk Management Example for Mountain Roads......Page 285
13.3 Physical Modelling of Alpine Surface Processes to Support Natural Hazard Forecasting......Page 291
13.4 Conclusions......Page 297
References......Page 299
14.1 Introduction......Page 301
14.2 Dynamic Model......Page 304
14.3 Static Model......Page 312
14.4 Discussion......Page 320
References......Page 323
15.1 Disasters as Extreme Events......Page 324
15.2 Examples of Causality Chains and Cascade Effects......Page 326
15.3 Modeling Causality Networks of Disaster Spreading......Page 339
15.4 Summary and Conclusions......Page 350
References......Page 351
D......Page 354
M......Page 355
S......Page 356
X......Page 357
