Delphi methods enable the systematic collection of expert judgments. They have proven to be particularly useful when a certain level of expertise and judgment is required to answer a research question. There are different variants of Delphi methods, such as the group Delphi or the real-time Delphi. The book presents current methodological developments and examples of application in the social and health sciences.
The contents● Delphi methods: Concepts and variants - Epistemological discussion - Practical challenges - Delphi in the social and health sciences - Real-time Delphi - Delphi markets.● Application examples for Delphi methods - Qualification requirements, recommendations for action for further development and strategy development in the health care industry - Personnel retention and recruitment in occupational nursing - Group Delphi for obesity prevention- Safety and health competence at work - Delphi methods in health promotion
The editorsProf. Dr. Marlen Niederberger is professor for research methods in health promotion and prevention at the PH Schwäbisch Gmünd.Prof. Dr. Ortwin Renn is Scientific Director at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (IASS).This book is a translation of the original German 1st edition Delphi-Verfahren in den Sozial- und Gesundheitswissenschaften by Marlen Niederberger and Ortwin Renn, published by Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature in 2019. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). A subsequent human revision was done primarily in terms of content, so that the book will read stylistically differently from a conventional translation. Springer Nature works continuously to further the development of tools for the production of books and on the related technologies to support the authors.
Author(s): Marlen Niederberger, Ortwin Renn
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 315
City: Wiesbaden
Preface
Contents
About the Editors and Authors
Editors
Authors
Part I: Delphi Method: Concepts and Variants
The Delphi Method: An Introduction
1 The History of the Delphi Method(s)
2 Definition of the Delphi Method
3 Types of Delphi Surveys
4 Functions of Delphi Studies
5 Areas of Application
6 Questionnaire Design
7 Participants
8 Outlook
Literature
The “Classic” Delphi. Practical Challenges from the Perspective of Foresight
1 Introduction
2 Basic Characteristics of the Method
2.1 Wide Range of Applications
3 Preparatory Phase
4 Identification and Recruitment of Experts
4.1 Heterogeneity of the Panel
4.2 Panel Size
4.3 Identification and Recruitment
4.4 Motivation for Participation
5 Development of the Questionnaire
5.1 Item Generation
5.2 The Challenge of Heterogeneous Panels
5.3 Addition of Comments
5.4 Future-Related Items
5.5 Self-Assessment of Competence
6 The Rounds of Interviews
6.1 First Round
6.2 Analysis of the Returns of the First Round
6.3 Second Round
7 Analysis of the Entire Survey Process
7.1 Images of the Future
7.2 Pro-domo Assessments
7.3 Consensus and Prediction
7.4 Opportunities Beyond Consensus
7.5 Combination with the Scenario Method
8 Conclusion
References
Delphi Studies in the Health Sciences: Epistemic Potentials and Challenges
1 Introduction: The Strength and Power of the Delphi Technique for Creating Knowledge
2 The Role of the Delphi Technique in Health Research Using the Example of Palliative Care
2.1 Framework for Knowledge Acquisition in Medical Research
2.2 Context of Standardisation
2.3 Historical and (Health) Policy Context: Professionalisation and Differentiation
2.4 Methodological Framework of Knowledge Generation
3 Consulting and Interpreting the Oracle: Projection Screen for Research Fantasies?
3.1 Epistemological Foundations of the Delphi Technique
3.2 Dramaturgy of Delphi Procedures
3.3 Reopening the Methodological Spectrum
3.4 Conclusion
4 Excursus into the Sociology of Knowledge
5 Epistemological Opportunities and Potentials
5.1 Habitualisation and Institutionalisation: Building a Scientific Foundation
5.2 Cohesion and Cohesiveness
5.3 Orientation in a Complex and Uncertain Professional Terrain
6 Limitations and Challenges
6.1 Limitations to the Appropriateness of the Delphi Technique to the Subject Matter
6.2 Power and Hegemony In and Through Delphi Procedures
6.3 Methodological Challenges
7 Food for Thought for a Creative Vision of Delphi in the Health Sciences
7.1 Reflections on the Research Attitude
7.1.1 Diversity: Language, Culture, Theoretical Concepts and Health Practice
7.1.2 Delphi and Participatory Research Approaches
7.2 Research Practice and Methodological Rigour
7.2.1 Appropriateness to the Subject Matter: Objective and Operationalisation
7.2.2 Ensuring Credibility
7.2.3 Knowledge Production through Delphi Processes: Presentation, Publication and Dissemination
7.3 Outlook
Literature
The Group Delphi Process in the Social and Health Sciences
1 Introduction
2 The Group Delphi: Concept and Definition
3 The Main Characteristics of Group Delphi Procedures
4 Procedure of a Group Pendulum
5 Selection of Experts
6 Moderation
7 Statistical Evaluation in Real Time
8 Result of a Group Delphi
9 Research and Application Area of Group Delphi Procedures in Health Sciences
10 Opportunities and Challenges of Group Delphi Procedures in the Health Sciences
11 Conclusion
Literature
Real-Time Delphi
1 Introduction
2 How Real-Time Delphi Works
3 Real-Time Delphi and Classical Delphi: Similarities and Differences
4 Specific Challenges of Real-Time Delphi Studies
4.1 Initial Condition
4.2 Biases in Delphi Studies
5 Technical Innovations and Real-Time Delphi Tools
6 Discussion and Outlook
Literature
Delphi Markets
1 Forecasts by Means of Markets
1.1 Information Efficiency
1.2 Prediction Markets
2 Commonalities and Potentials for Integration
2.1 Potential for Prediction Markets
2.2 Potentials for Real-Time Delphi
3 Integration Approaches
3.1 Integration at User-Level
3.2 Integration at Market-Level
3.3 Integration on Delphi Question-Level
4 Conclusion and Future Developments
Literature
Part II: Case Studies for Delphi Methods
New Qualification Requirements in the Health Care Sector
1 Introduction
2 Background
2.1 Research Question and Objective of the Study
2.2 Delimitation of the Research Object
3 Study Design and Method
3.1 Theoretical Classification
3.2 Implementation of the Study-Specific Requirements
3.3 Overview of the Study Design
4 Sample
4.1 Procedure for the Selection of Experts
4.2 Result of the Expert Selection: Gross Sample by Main Groups and Subgroups
5 Operationalisation of the Research Question
5.1 Literature Research and Analysis
5.2 Guidelines for the Explorative Expert Interviews
5.3 Questionnaire for the First Delphi Round
5.4 Questionnaire for the Second Delphi Round
6 Field Course of the Delphi Rounds
6.1 First Delphi Round: Non-standardised Survey
6.2 Second Delphi Round: Quantitative Survey
6.3 Expert Workshops Instead of Third Survey Round
7 Study Results and Conclusion
Literature
Modified Delphi Process to Identify Recommendations for Action for the Structural Development of Physical Activity Promotion in Germany
1 Background
1.1 Methodology
1.1.1 Steps 1 and 2: Questionnaire Development
1.1.2 Step 3: Delphi Survey
1.1.3 Status Workshop
1.2 Results: Consensus or Dissent on Structural Needs for Action in Physical Activity Promotion?
1.3 Reflection on the Methodological Approach
1.4 Conclusion
Literature
Evaluation of Health Care Situation and Care Structures for Elderly People in the Federal State of Bremen, Germany
1 Health Care Situation of Older People: Background, Mandate and Objectives of the Study
2 Research Question and Survey Method
2.1 Selection of Experts
2.2 Construction of the Survey Instruments
2.3 Survey Instrument Online Survey I
2.4 Survey Instrument Online Survey II
2.5 Development and Implementation of the Expert Workshop
2.6 Translation of Results
3 Presentation of the Results
3.1 Description of the Sample
3.2 Results of the Online Surveys
3.2.1 Problems Identified
3.3 Results of the Online Surveys
4 Interpretation and Discussion of the Results
4.1 Specific Solutions in the Topic Area: Intersectoral Management
4.1.1 Example: Case Management
4.1.2 Example: Establishment of Communication Structures
4.2 Specific Approaches in the Topic Area of Geriatric Care
4.2.1 Example: Development of a Binding Geriatric Concept
4.2.2 Example: Inclusion of Geriatrics as a Focus of Internal Medicine
4.2.3 Example: Employing Permanent (Specialist) Medical Staff in Care Facilities for the Elderly
4.3 Specific Approaches in the Topic Area of Caring Neighbourhoods
4.3.1 Example: Neighbourhood Work
4.4 Specific Solutions in the Area of Qualification and Training
4.4.1 Example: Access Professional Qualification and Staff Recruitment
4.4.2 Example: Bundling of Competencies
4.4.3 Example: Intercultural Competencies
4.5 Summary of the Discussion
5 Strengths and Limitations of the Study
6 Conclusions
Literature
A Delphi Survey on Strategies of Staff Retention and Recruitment in Professional Nursing: Research Question, Operationalisation and Questionnaire Development
1 Introduction
2 The ZAFH care4care Research Network
3 The Sub-project of the Hochschule Esslingen
4 The Delphi Survey of ZAFH care4care
4.1 Design of the Delphi Survey
4.1.1 Round 1
4.1.2 Round 2
4.1.3 Round 3
4.2 Triangulation
5 Conclusion
Literature
Assessment of Health-Related Measures Using the Group Delphi Method
1 Introduction
2 The Group Delphi as a Method of Transdisciplinary Knowledge Integration
3 Obesity in Childhood and Adolescence: Determining Effective Prevention Measures by Means of Group Delphi
3.1 Empirical Preliminary Work for the Identification of Measures
3.2 The Catalogue of Measures
3.3 The Questionnaire Design
3.4 The Selection of Experts
3.5 The Implementation of the Group Delphi Process
3.6 The Results
4 Summary
Literature
Delphi Study on the Promotion of Safety and Health Competence at Work
1 Delphi Study on the Promotion of Safety and Health Competence at Work
1.1 Research Questions of the Delphi Study
1.2 Method Selection
1.3 Selection, Approach and Participation of Experts
1.4 Structure of the Questionnaire
1.4.1 Questionnaire of the First Survey Wave
1.4.2 Questionnaire of the Second Survey Wave
1.5 Evaluations
1.6 Selected Results from the Delphi Study
1.7 Review of the Delphi Study
Literature
Delphi Methods in Health Promotion. Results of a Systematic Review
1 Introduction
2 Background: Delphi Methods in Health Promotion
3 Delphi Methods in Health Promotion: A Systematic Review
3.1 Search and Selection of Delphi Studies
3.2 Analysis Grid
3.3 Evaluation
3.4 Pretest
4 Results of the Systematic Review
4.1 General Information on the Articles
4.2 Information on the Subject and Objective of the Delphi Procedure
4.3 Conceptual Details of the Delphi Procedure
4.4 Information on the General Research Process
4.5 Composition of the Expert Panel
4.6 Procedure of the Delphi Process
4.7 Notes on the Survey Instruments
4.8 Notes on Consensus Building
4.9 Presentation of Results
5 Conclusion
Appendix: Articles Analysed
Literature
