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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

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In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers gain insight into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It considers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. The text is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

Author(s): Paul Goodwin, George Wright
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Year: 2014

Language: English
Commentary: This looks at the key questions that a decision maker should consider in order to maximize the effectiveness of decision-aiding methods; it concludes with a summary of the types of problems that the different methods are designed to address.
Pages: 441
Tags: How people make decisions; Decision making under uncertainty; Revising judgments in the light of new information; Risk and uncertainty management; Decisions involving groups of individuals; Decision framing and cognitive inertia; Scenario planning; Combining scenario planning with decision analysis;

1 Introduction
2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives
3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART
4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART
5 Introduction to probability
6 Decision making under uncertainty
7 Decision trees and influence diagrams
8 Applying simulation to decision problems
9 Revising judgments in the light of new information
10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment
11 Methods for eliciting probabilities
12 Risk and uncertainty management
13 Decisions involving groups of individuals
14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems
15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia
16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty
17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis
18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions