China's Food Security: Strategies and Countermeasures

Editorial Board
Foreword I
Foreword II
Foreword III
Foreword IV
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
1 Despite the 10,000-Year History of Farming, There Still Are People Going Hungry!
2 A Food Shortage Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic is Unfolding!
3 Looking Ahead, Can Getting Sufficient Food Be More Difficult Than Landing on the Moon?
4 Having Enough to Eat is the Most Basic Human Right!
5 What Are the Solutions to Food Security?
6 History: The Chinese Nation Has Led the Agricultural Civilization
7 Achievements: New China Said Goodbye to Four Histories in 70 Years
8 Problems: Import of the Equivalent of 900 Million Mu of Arable Land is a Serious Constraint on Food Security
9 Countermeasures: Eight Measures Need to Be Implemented to Ensure Food Security
10 Food Security is an Ongoing Issue that Precedes the Population Peak
Part I A New Concept of Food Security
2 Post-pandemic Changes in World Pattern and Food Security
1 Politics: Accelerated Formation of a New Pluralistic Pattern
2 Economy: Embracing Changes Never Seen in a Century
3 Technology: Early Arrival of the New Revolution in Science and Technology
4 Culture: Major Trends of Exchange, Diversity, Inclusiveness, and Fusion
5 Military: Nuclear Dominance May Turn into Biological Dominance
6 US-China Competition: Intolerance to Be Overtaken Versus Unremitting Efforts for Development
7 Food Security: The Worst Upcoming Crisis in 50+ years
3 A New Concept of Food Security for Today’s World
1 Concept and Connotations of Food Security
1.1 Edible Grain Security: Access to Adequate Food
1.2 Food Security: The Guarantee of Nutritious Food
1.3 Potential Risks of Implicit Food Security
2 Definitions of Food Safety: Access to Safe Food
3 Food Security Index: Hunger Risk Assessment
3.1 Foreign Studies on the Food Security Index
3.2 Domestic Studies on the Food Security Index
4 Possible Recurrence of Food Crisis and Food Wars
1 Food Crisis that Plagues Human Survival and Development
1.1 Million People in Africa Do not Have Enough Food
1.2 Nearly 380 Million People in Asia Are Malnourished
1.3 Food Crisis in Europe
2 Sharp Rise in Risk of Food War Due to COVID-19 Outbreak
5 Difficulties on the Road to Eradicating Hunger
1 Why is Eating Enough More Difficult Than Landing on the Moon?
2 How to Feed the Additional 2.3 Billion People in the Future?
3 How Many People Can Earth Feed?
4 What Are the Reliable Technologies to Increase Food Production in the Future
5 Decreased Food Production Due to Global Warming
6 Adequate Food—The Most Basic Human Right
7 Bridging the Food Gap Through Civilization
Part II Global Food Security
6 Food Production: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1 Grain Production Increased by 2.67 Times in the Past 60 Years
1.1 Grain Production Crossed 9 Steps with 200 Million Tons for Each
1.1.1 Growth of Total Grain Production Was 1.81 Times the Population
1.2 Average Annual Growth Rate of Grain Production Was 1.44 Times the Population
1.3 Total Grain Production Increased by 9 Steps with 200 Million Tons for Each
1.4 Global Per Capita Share of Grain Increased by 141.7 kg
1.5 Soybean Production Crossed Five Steps with 50 Million Tons for Each
1.6 Soybean Production Grew by 11.97 Times
1.7 Average Annual Growth Rate of Soybean Production Was 4.6%
1.8 Soybean Production Crossed Five Steps with 50 Million Ton for Each
2 Unit Area Yield of Grain Increased by 1.89 Times in the Last 60 Years
2.1 Unit Area Yield of Grain Crossed Three Steps with 750 kg/ha for Each
2.1.1 Unit Area Yield of Grain Increased by 1.89 Times
2.1.2 Average Annual Growth Rate of the Unit Area Yield of Grain Was 1.9%
2.1.3 Unit Area Yield of Grain Crossed Three Steps with 750 kg/ha for Each
2.2 Unit Area Yield of Soybean Crossed Four Steps with 375 kg/ha for Each
2.2.1 Unit Area Yield of Soybean Increased by 1.47 Times
2.2.2 Average Annual Growth Rate of the Unit Area Yield of Soybean Was 1.6%
2.2.3 Unit Area Yield of Soybean Crossed Four Steps with 375 kg/ha for Each
3 Cultivated Grain Area Increased by 27% in the Last 60 Years
3.1 Higher Urbanization Rate Led to Smaller Grain Sown Area
3.2 Adjustment of Agricultural Structure Caused a Reduction in Grain Sown Area
3.3 Environmental Pollution Resulted in a Decline in Grain Sown Area
4 Key Countries and Technologies Boosting Food Growth
4.1 Key Countries: China, the United States, and India
4.2 Key Varieties: Corn, Rice, and Wheat
4.3 Key Technologies: Improved Varieties, Water Conservancy, and Machinery
4.4 Key Elements: 73% Contribution of Unit Area Yield
5 Total Grain Production of 4.1 Billion Tons in 2040
5.1 Total Grain Production Is Expected to Reach 4.1 Billion Tons
5.2 Annual Growth Rate of Unit Area Yield of Grain Will Reach 1.66%
5.3 Grain Acreage Is Expected to Reach 1 Billion Hectares
7 Grain Consumption: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1 Low Growth in Direct Food Consumption Over the Past 60 years
1.1 Direct Consumption of Wheat Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 1.9%
1.1.1 Direct Consumption of Wheat Increased by 2.07 Times
1.1.2 Direct Consumption of Wheat Grew Fastest from 1970 to 1980
1.2 Direct Consumption of Rice Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 2.1%
1.2.1 Direct Consumption of Rice Increased by 2.46 Times
1.2.2 Direct Consumption of Rice Grew at the Highest Rate from 1960 to 1970
1.3 Direct Consumption of Corn Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 3.2%
1.3.1 Direct Consumption of Corn Increased by Nearly 5.8 Times
1.3.2 Direct Consumption of Corn Grew at the Highest Rate from 2000 to 2010
1.4 Direct Consumption of Soybeans Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 2.1%
1.4.1 Direct Consumption of Soybeans Increased by 2.2 Times
1.4.2 Direct Consumption of Soybean Grew at the Highest Rate from 2010 to 2020
2 Rapid Growth in Indirect Food Consumption Over the Past 60 years
2.1 Indirect Consumption of Wheat Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 2.6%
2.1.1 Indirect Consumption of Wheat Increased by 3.66 Times
2.1.2 Indirect Consumption of Wheat Grew at the Highest Rate from 1960 to 1970
2.2 Indirect Consumption of Corn Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 2.9%
2.2.1 Indirect Consumption of Corn Increased by 4.56 Times
2.2.2 Indirect Consumption of Corn Grew at the Highest Average Annual Rate from 1970 to 1980
2.3 Consumption of Soybean for Oil Grew Faster Than for Feed
2.3.1 Consumption of Soybean as Feed has Grown at an Average Annual Rate of 4.4% Over the Past 60 Years
2.3.2 Consumption of Soybean for Crushing Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 4.9%
3 A 60-Year Review: Constant Optimization of Food Consumption Structure
3.1 The Consumption of Wheat for Dietary, Seeding, and Industrial Purposes Accounted for 81.6% of the Total Consumption of Wheat
3.2 Consumption of Corn for Feed Purposes Accounted for 54.5% of the Total Consumption of Corn
3.3 Consumption of Soybean for Crushing Accounted for 59.8% of the Total Consumption of Soybean
4 A 20-Year Outlook: Food Consumption is Expected to Reach 4.1 Billion Tons
8 Grain Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1 Grain Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1.1 Wheat Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1.1.1 Wheat Trade Increased by 3.29 Times in the Last 60 Years
1.1.2 Wheat Trade Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 2.5% Over the Last 60 Years
1.1.3 Wheat Trade Is Expected to Reach 250 Million Tons in the Next 20 Years
1.2 Rice Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1.2.1 Rice Trade Increased by 6.11 Times in the Last 60 Years
1.2.2 Rice Trade Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 3.3% in the Last 60 Years
1.2.3 Rice Trade Is Projected to Reach 0.6 Billion Tons in 2040
1.3 Corn Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1.3.1 Corn Trade Increased by 12.02 Times in the Last 60 Years
1.3.2 Corn Trade Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 4.4% over the Last 60 Years
1.3.3 Corn Trade Is Projected to Reach 240 Million Tons in 2040
1.4 Soybean Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1.4.1 Soybean Trade Increased by 24.04 Times in the Last 60 Years
1.4.2 Soybean Trade Grew at an Average Annual Rate of 5.9% Over the Last 60 Years
1.4.3 Soybean Trade Is Projected to Reach 220 Million Tons in 2040
1.5 Grain Trade: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
2 Major Grain Exporters and Export Volume
2.1 Wheat Exports Increased by 4 Times
2.1.1 Global Wheat Exports Increased Nearly Fourfold from 1961 to 2017
2.1.2 Wheat Export Increment of Top 10 Exporters Contributed 85.3% to the Global Increment
2.2 Rice Exports Increased by More Than 6 Times
2.2.1 Global Rice Exports Increased by 6.08 Times from 1961 to 2017
2.2.2 Rice Export Increment of Top 10 Exporters Contributed 95.1% to the Global Increment
2.3 Corn Exports Increased by More Than 10 Times
2.3.1 Global Corn Exports Increased by 10.5 Times from 1961 to 2017
2.3.2 Top 10 Exporters Contributed 91.6% to the Global Corn Export Increment
2.4 Soybean Exports Increased by More Than 35 Times
2.4.1 Global Soybean Exports Increased by 35.4 Times from 1961 to 2017
2.4.2 Top 10 Exporters Contributed 98.8% to the Global Increment of Soybean Exports
3 Major Grain Importers and Import Volume
3.1 Wheat Imports Increased by Nearly 4 Times
3.1.1 Global Wheat Imports Increased by 3.78 Times in 1961–2017
3.1.2 Wheat Importers Shifted from Developed Countries to Developing Countries
3.2 Rice Imports Increased by More Than 5 Times
3.2.1 Global Rice Imports Increased by 5.63 Times from 1961 to 2017
3.2.2 Most of the Rice Importers Were East and Southeast Asian Countries
3.3 Corn Imports Increased by More Than 10 Times
3.3.1 Global Corn Imports Increased by 10 Times from 1961 to 2017
3.3.2 Corn Imports Were Dominated by Countries Such as Mexico and Japan
3.4 Soybean Imports Increased by Over 35 Times
3.4.1 Global Soybean Imports Increased by 35.3 Times from 1961 to 2017
3.4.2 China’s Imports Grew Markedly
4 Ratio of Soybean Trade to Its Production Nearly Doubled
4.1 Share of Trade Volume of Different Crops Increased
4.2 Soybean Trade Accounted for 42.79% of Its Production
4.3 The Most Obvious Increasing Trend Was Seen in the Trade in Soybeans
9 Production of the Livestock Sector: A 60-Year Review and Outlook
1 A 60-Year Review of Meat Production
1.1 Meat Production Increased by 3.8 Times
1.1.1 Increase in Meat Production Was Mainly Caused by Growing Poultry and Pork Output
1.1.2 Dominance in the Meat Sector Changed from Beef and Pork to Poultry
1.1.3 Developing Economies Made a Significantly Higher Contribution to the Increase in Global Meat Production
1.2 Pork Production Increased by 3.9 Times
1.2.1 Asia Made a Large Contribution to the Increase in Global Pork Production
1.2.2 High Carcass Weight in North America and Europe Vs Rapid Increase in Carcass Weight in Asia
1.3 Poultry Production Increased by 13 Times
1.3.1 Asia Saw the Largest Increase in Poultry Production
1.3.2 Nearly Half of the Global Poultry Production Came from the United States, China, and Brazil
1.3.3 The Gap in Carcass Weight of Slaughtered Poultry Widened Globally
1.4 Beef Production Increased by 1.5 Times
1.4.1 Global Beef Growth Relied Heavily on Asia and South America
1.4.2 Global Beef Production Growth Was Mainly Driven by the Increase in Slaughter Volume and Carcass Weight
1.5 Mutton Production Increased by 1.6 Times
2 A 60-Year Review of Egg Production
2.1 0.1 Egg Production Increased by 4.5 Times
2.2 China Contributed 45% of the Increase in Global Egg Production
2.3 High Unit Area Yield of Eggs in Developed Countries
3 A 60-Year Review of Milk Production
3.1 Global Production of Milk Products Increased by 1.6 Times
3.2 Asia and Europe Were the Main Producers of Milk Products
3.3 Global Average Milk Production Increased by 17.5%
4 Structural Optimization and Future Trend of Livestock Industry
4.1 Improved Productivity Was a Key Factor
4.2 Science and Technology Was the Main Driving Force
4.3 100 Kg Is Probable the Maximum for Annual Meat Consumption Per Capita
4.4 Features and Trends of Global Meat Consumption
4.5 Undeniable Impact of COVID-19 on Livestock Industry
10 Trade in Livestock Products: A 60-Year Review and 20-Year Outlook
1 Trade in Livestock Products Grows Faster Than the Production
1.1 Europe and Asia Made Up 80.32% of Global Meat Imports
1.2 Europe and North America Contributed 62.55% to Global Meat Exports
1.3 Egg Trade Reached 4.57 Million Tons with a 3.4 Times Increase
2 Estimates of the Potential of Global Livestock Products
2.1 Meat Production Is Projected to Grow by About 25%
2.2 Egg Production Is Projected to Grow by About 26%
2.3 Milk Production Is Projected to Grow by About 13%
3 Trade in Livestock Products Is Expected to Increase by About 23%
3.1 Low Growth Scenario: 13.8% Increase in Trade Volume
3.2 Medium Growth Scenario: 23.1% Increase in Trade Volume
3.3 High Growth Scenario: 39.1% Increase in Trade Volume
11 Basic Conclusions on Global Food Security
1 Overall Global Food Insecurity, and Coexistence of Obesity and Hunger
1.1 Global Per Capita Share of Grain Failed to Reach the Security Line of 400 kg
1.2 25% of the Global Population Experienced Moderate to High Levels of Food Insecurity
1.3 Difficult to Resolve Food Shortage in African Countries in the Short Term
1.4 Incentive to Produce Grain in High-Income Countries or Regions Declined
1.5 The “Food Gap” Among Countries of the World May Be Enduring
2 Basic Patterns of Global Food Security
2.1 Criteria for Access to Adequate and Nutritious Food
2.2 Potential Grain Exporters
2.3 Grain Balanced Countries
2.4 Potential Grain Importers
3 Balance Between Supply and Demand of Grain and Food
4 Trends and Patterns of Global Food Security
4.1 Food Production Continued to Grow Faster Than the Population
4.2 Proportion of Direct Consumption of Grain Declined
4.3 Per Capita Grain Consumption Continued to Increase
4.4 Urbanization Reduced the Area of Cultivated Land
4.5 Comparative Benefits of Grain Production Has Declined
Part III China’s Food Security: History and Experience
12 Remarkable History of China’s Agriculture and Food Security
1 China’s Remarkable History of Grain Cultivation for 10,000+ years
1.1 Agricultural Civilization in the Yellow River Basin
1.2 Agricultural Civilization in the Yangtze River Basin
2 Four Stages of Food Security Over the Past 2000 years
3 Main Experiences in Ensuring Food Security Through the Ages
3.1 Self-Sufficiency is the Basis of Food Security Because Food is Fundamental to People
3.2 Food Security is the Basis of a Stable Society as Grain is Fundamental to the Country
3.3 A Good Start by Many New Dynasties—Dividing the Land Between the Rich and the Poor
13 Milestones of Agriculture and Food Security in New China
1 Four Milestones in the History of Chinese Agriculture in 70 years
1.1 Announcing a “New Stage” in Agriculture by Bidding Farewell to Hunger
1.2 Achieving Basic Mechanization by Bidding Farewell to “Plowing with Two Oxen”
1.3 Abolition of Agricultural Tax Nationwide and Ending the Era of “Paying Grain to the Emperor”
1.4 Completing the Building of a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Ending “Absolute Poverty”
2 Population Growth of Nearly 900 Million Making China the Most Populous Country
3 The Average Life Expectancy of Chinese People Increased by 42 Years, the Largest Increase Among Large Countries
4 China’s Total Grain Production Increased by 486%, Making It the Top Grain-Producer
5 Over 300 Million Mu of Arable Land Worth About RMB 45 Trillion Used to Support Urbanization
14 Grain Production: 486% Increase in 70 Years
1 486% Increase in Total Grain Production
2 461% Increase in Unit Area Yield of Grain
3 5.5% Increase in Sown Area
4 Key Factors for Production Increase
4.1 Major Provinces and Regions: Northeast China, North China, and the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Accounting for 70%
4.2 Main Crops: Wheat, Corn, and Rice Accounting for 91%
4.3 Key Technologies: Improved Seeds, Irrigation, Machinery, Fertilizer
4.4 Key Policies: Lower Burden, Higher Prices, More Subsidies, Less Taxation
15 Grain Trade: 88-Fold Increase in 70 Years
1 88-Fold Increase in Grain Trade Volume
2 Importing the Equivalent of Nearly 900 Million mu of Cultivated Land
3 Main Varieties Traded: Soybeans Accounting for 83%
4 Major Trading Countries: The United States and Brazil Having a Combined Share of 84%
5 Major Issues: High Concentration and Rising Risks
16 Grain Consumption: 577% Increase in 70 Years
1 577% Increase in Total Grain Consumption
2 95% Drop in Direct Consumption and Over 380% Rise in Indirect Consumption
3 Population Growth Contributed 50% to the Growth of Total Grain Consumption
4 Income Growth Contributed 50% to the Growth of Total Grain Consumption
5 Outlook on China’s Grain Consumption
Part IV Food Security in China: Current Situation and Problems
17 Efficiency and Cost of Grain Production
1 Input and Cost Required for Each 100-Million Ton Increase in Total Grain Production
1.1 Grain Sown Area Increased by Only 1.1% Points
1.2 An Increase of 100 Million Tons of Total Grain Production Took About 12.7 years
1.3 The Coverage Ratio of Improved Seeds Rose from 49% to More Than 95%
1.4 Effective Irrigated Area Increased by 8.78 Million Hectares
1.5 The Rate of Agricultural Mechanization Rose from 1 to 95%
1.6 The Use of Chemical Fertilizers Increased by 9.74 Million Tons
1.7 Additional 1 kg of Pesticide for Every Additional 300 kg of Grain Production
2 Input and Cost for Each 1000 kg/ha Increase in Unit Area Yield
2.1 Years Required to Increase Unit Area Yield by 1000 kg/ha
2.2 Fertilizer Use Increased by 100 kg/ha
2.3 Pesticide Use Increased by 8.51 kg/ha
2.4 An Average Increase of 53.79% in Irrigated Area
2.5 Nine-Fold Increase in Total Power of Agricultural Machinery
18 Food Security in Various Provinces/Municipalities/Regions
1 Concept, Indicators, and Algorithm of Food Security Index
1.1 6-Factor Index of Grain and Food Security and the Indicator System
1.2 Calculation Method of the 6-factor Index of Grain and Food Security
2 Six-Factor Index of Food Security by Province/Municipality/Region
2.1 Quantitative Security
2.2 Qualitative Security
2.3 Ecological Security
2.4 Technological Security
2.5 Economic Security
2.6 Social Security
3 Food Security Zoning in China
3.1 High Security Zone
3.2 Medium–High Security Zone
3.3 Medium Security Zone
3.4 Low Security Zone
19 Security Index of Major Crops
1 Food Imports Exceeded 100 Million Tons or 65 kg Per Capita
2 Combined Self-Sufficiency Rate of Edible Grains Stabilized at Over 98%
3 Complete Self-Sufficiency in Rice Making Exports Possible (与事实不符 Achieved, and Imports and Exports Coexisted)
4 Wheat Self-Sufficiency Rate Stood Above 95.4%, with Imports Falling
5 Corn Self-Sufficiency Rate Has Stabilized at Over 98% in Recent years
6 Soybean Self-Sufficiency Rate Dropped from 100% to Nearly 18%
20 Status Quo and Problems of Food Security
1 General Conclusion on Food Security
1.1 Chinese People Have Access to Sufficient Food
1.2 Sufficient Nutrition Depends on Food Imports
1.3 Low Level, High Difficulty, Tight Balance, Weak Security
2 Nine Major Challenges Confronting China’s Food Security
2.1 Large Imports, with an Implicit Self-Sufficiency Rate of 70%
2.2 Severe Shortage of Feed Grain, with an External Dependence of 85% for Soybeans
2.3 High Pressure on Arable Land Protection and High Demand for Land Use in Urbanization
2.4 Small Scale and Low Benefits of Grain Cultivation, with a Decline in Multiple Cropping Index
2.5 Less Competitive on a Global Scale, with Food Prices More Than 70% Higher Than Those in the United States
2.6 Smaller Technological Potential, Greater Difficulty in Boosting Food Production
2.7 Young Generations’ Reluctance to Grow Grain and a Need to Cultivate Future Farmers
2.8 Reluctance of Urban and Rural Residents to Store Grain Puts Pressure on the State
2.9 Insufficient Knowledge of Nutritional Science Has Resulted in 250 Million Obese People
Part V China’s Food Security: Strategies and Countermeasures
21 Grain Production and Demand Forecast
1 Possible Population Peak of Around 1.44 Billion
1.1 Population of About 1.44 Billion in 2030
1.2 Possible Urbanization Rate of 70% or More
1.3 Total GDP at RMB 160 Trillion and RMB 350 Trillion
2 Expected Total Grain Production at 959 Million Tons
2.1 Basic Assumptions for Grain Production Forecasts
2.2 Expected Total Grain Production at 959 Million Tons
2.3 Predictions on the Production of Four Major Grains
3 Possible Grain Consumption at 800 Million–1 Billion Tons
3.1 Per Capita Food Consumption Jumping from 560 to 750 kg
3.2 Declining Consumption of Edible Grain, with a 38% Decline in 2050
3.3 Feed Grain Consumption at 584.67 Million Tons in 2050
3.4 Marginal Increase in Consumption of Seed Grain, Reaching 12.8548 Million Tons in 2050
4 Grain Imports Remained at About 100 Million Tons
4.1 Complete Self-Sufficiency in Edible Grain and a Grain Deficit of 100 Million Tons
4.2 Gradual Improvement in Grain Self-Sufficiency, with a Per Capita Grain Deficit of About 90 kg
22 Strategies and Countermeasures for Food Security
1 Current Food Security Status and Tasks in China
1.1 Three Substantial Shifts in China’s Food Security
1.2 Preparation for Worst-Case Scenario and Remaining on High Alert for Food War
2 Strategic Goals for Food Security
2.1 Overall Goals for Food Security
2.2 Specific Indicators of Food Security
3 Strategies for Food Security
3.1 Implementation of Grain Science and Technology Innovation Strategy
3.2 Implementation of Agricultural System Innovation Strategy
3.3 Implementation of the Northwest Regional Granary Construction Strategy
3.4 Implementation of the Food Security Co-Building Strategy
4 Measures for Food Security
4.1 Implementation of the “800-Million-Ton Food Security Project”
4.2 Implementation of the “Imported Soybean Replacement Project”
4.3 Promotion of the Second Green Revolution
4.4 Promotion of a New Round of Agricultural System Reform
4.5 Consolidation of a Stable Overseas Grain Supply Chain
4.6 Accelerated Construction of New Grain Silos in Western China
4.7 Promotion of “Scientific Food Consumption and Food Saving Initiative”
23 Potential and Solutions to Food Security
1 Grain Production Potential of Over 1 Billion Tons
1.1 Pyramid of Grain Production Potential
1.2 Potential Photosynthetic Productivity of 2.12 Billion Tons, with a Potential Index of 3.2
1.3 Potential Photo-Temperature Productivity of 1.32 Billion Tons, with a Potential Index of 2.0
1.4 Potential Photo-Temperate-Precipitation Productivity of 950 Million Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.4
1.5 Photo-Temperate-Precipitation-Irrigation Productivity of 1.27 Billion Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.9
1.6 Photo-Temperate-Precipitation-Irrigation-Soil Productivity of 1.15 Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.7
1.7 Photo-Temperate-Precipitation-Irrigation-Soil-Fertilizer Productivity of 1.07 Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.6
1.8 Technology-Driven Yield Potential of 960 Million Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.5
1.9 Economy-Driven Yield Potential of 860 Million Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.3
1.9.1 Society-Driven Yield Potential of 800 Million Tons, with a Potential Index of 1.2
2 Total Grain Production Fluctuations to Be Kept Below 5%
3 Practical Implementation of the “800-Million-Ton Food Security Project”
3.1 “Increasing Food Production by Technology”: A  Second Green Revolution
3.2 “Maintaining Hidden Production on Arable Land”: Two Warning Lines of 1.8 Billion Mu
3.3 “Producing Food from Sea”: the Role of 3 Million Square Kilometers of Ocean
3.4 “Producing Food on Mountains”: New Concepts of Big Land and Big Grain
3.5 “Increasing Production by Reform”: A New Wave of Agricultural Economic System Reform
3.6 “Storing Food with Friendly Cooperation”: An Overseas Food Supply Chain of 1 Billion Mu of Cultivated Land
3.7 “Reducing Wastage in Food Consumption”: Innovative Culture of Food Consumption
3.8 “Guaranteeing Food Security in the Form of a Community”
4 Implementation of the “Imported Soybean Replacement Project”
4.1 Reducing Imports and Lowering Dependence on Imported Soybeans by 85%
4.2 A Marked Decline in the Shares of Soybean Production and Cultivated Area
4.2.1 Soybean Production as a Share of Grain Production Dropped by 57%
4.2.2 Soybean Cultivated Area as a Share of Grain Cultivated Area Fell by 14%
4.2.3 Soybean Yield Per Unit Area Increased by 6.08% in 20 years
4.3 Soybean Yield Reduction Due to Corn Occupying the Cultivated Land
4.3.1 Cultivated Area of Soybean Fell by 17.85 Million Mu
4.3.2 Cultivated Area of Corn Increased by 437.65 Million Mu
4.3.3 Grain Production Would Increase by 7.26 Million Tons of Corn Was Planted on the Original Cultivated Land of Soybean
4.3.4 Corn Cultivation Offered a 65% Higher Revenue Per Mu Than Soybean, Resulting in the Reduction of Soybean Cultivation
4.4 Implementation of the “Imported Soybean Replacement Project”
4.4.1 The Recovery of a 20 Million Mu Area for Soybean Cultivation Can Increase Production by 2.53 Million Tons
4.4.2 A 20% Increase in Soybean Yield Per Unit Area Can Increase Production by 3.15 Million Tons
4.4.3 “Soybean Cultivation Standardization Project” Can Yield an Additional 6.3 Million Tons
4.4.4 Additional Rapeseed Production of 2 Million Tons Can Replace 4 Million Tons of Soybeans
4.4.5 Planting 50 Million Mu of Quinoa Can Replace 5 Million Tons of Soybeans
4.4.6 The Development of 200 Million Mu of High-Quality Pasture Can Replace 10 Million Tons of Soybeans
4.4.7 Expanded Sea Fishery Can Replace 1.5 Million Tons of Soybeans
24 Production Potential and Solutions for Major Grain-Producing Provinces
1 Shandong Province is Expected to Increase Grain Production by 20%
1.1 Shandong Province Saw a 5.1-fold Increase in Grain Production Over the Past 70 years
1.1.1 Shandong Province’s Grain Production Increased by 5.1 Times in 70 Years
1.1.2 Grain Production Challenges in Shandong Province
1.1.3 Implementation of the 100-Billion Jin (50 billion Kilo) Grain Productivity Construction Plan in Shandong Province
1.2 Shandong Province Still Has the Potential to Increase Grain Production by More Than 20%
1.2.1 Five Factors That Laid the Groundwork for Increasing Grain Production in Shandong Province
1.2.2 Solutions for Increasing Grain Production in Shandong Province
1.3 Main Strategies to Increase Grain Production by 20% in Shandong Province
1.3.1 Two Renewals of Major Crop Varieties Can Increase Grain Yields by 16%
1.3.2 Technology for Growing Grain on Saline Land Around the Bohai May Drive a 2% Increase in Grain Production
1.3.3 Creating High-Standard Farmland May Increase Grain Production by 1.2 Million Tons
1.3.4 A 2-Percentage Point Increase in the Multiple Cropping Index May Lead to a 2% Increase in Grain Production
2 Hunan Province Has the Potential to Increase Grain Production by 20%
2.1 Opportunities and Challenges Facing Hunan Province in Grain Production
2.1.1 Hunan Province Has Ranked No. 1 in China in Rice Production for 40 Consecutive Years
2.1.2 Hunan Province Lost Its Top Position in Rice Production in 2016
2.1.3 Three Major Issues in Sustaining the Increase in Rice Production
2.2 Hunan Province Has the Potential to Increase Grain Production by Over 20%
2.2.1 An Increase in the Multiple Cropping Index Can Create an Additional 10 Million Mu of Sown Area
2.2.2 Technological Advances Can Increase the Unit Area Yield of Rice by 15 to 30%
2.3 Four Measures to Propel Grain Production to a New Level of 70 Billion Jin
2.3.1 Development of Diversified, Intensive, and Efficient Agriculture
2.3.2 Holistic Functioning of the Entire Industry Chain That Includes Growing, Processing, and Sales
2.3.3 Building “One-and-a-Half-Ton-Per-Mu Fields” Based on Third-Generation Hybrid Rice
2.3.4 Strengthening the System of Provincial Governors Taking Responsibility for “Rice Bags”
25 Resolute to Win the Food War
1 Food Wars—Artificially Created Food Crises
2 Endless Food Wars Throughout the Ages, Both in China and Abroad
3 Ongoing Soybean War Between the United States and China
4 Increased Likelihood of China Being Embroiled in a Food War
5 Strategies and Tactics for Winning the Food War
5.1 A Top-Level Design for Winning Food Wars
5.2 Enhanced Responses and Measures for Winning Food Wars
Afterword
Index