Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition

Prominent economist Geoffrey Moore wrote these essays at the NBER, where he directed the business cycle research program for many years. The following topics are discussed in depth: -Conditions that determine when a recession begins and ends, and how to get some advance warning of these events both in the United States and in other countries. These essays are of particular importance because of the wide use that is made of the NBER's chronology of these events in government publications and by private analysts. -Inflation, and how it is related to the business cycle. Moore shows how the concept of growth cycles can be applied to other countries and explains how variations in the rate of inflation can be analyzed in a similar manner. -Leading and lagging indicators. Since Moore was one of the chief developers of these indicators, several articles discuss their technique and application. Two relatively new uses are illustrated: forecasting swings in exports and in the inflation rate. -An appraisal of the accuracy of economic forecasts by the president's economic advisors and by private economists. -Appendixes of historical reference material on various measures of the business cycle and inflation.